Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang (08-23-2025)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15][#12UFC] Johnny Walker (21-9-0, +297) vs. [#16][#13UFC] Mingyang Zhang (19-6-0, -398)
Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#12LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:28 of round 1
2024-01-13: L vs. [#10DD][#6P4P][#1LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#10DD][#6P4P][#1LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1)
Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2025-04-26: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:03 of round 1
2024-11-23: W vs. [#102MW] Osman Diaz (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:25 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#57LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mingyang Zhang | -398 | 76.03% | |
| Elo K170 | Johnny Walker | 1791.23 | +52.03 | 57.43% |
| Elo Modified | Johnny Walker | 1802.87 | +67.03 | 59.53% |
| Glicko-1 | Johnny Walker | 1856.33 | +37.60 | 55.39% |
| WHR | Mingyang Zhang | 1777.98 | +58.76 | 58.38% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Johnny Walker 33.4, Mingyang Zhang 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Walker 427, Mingyang Zhang 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#4][#4UFC] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0, -310) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Brian Ortega (16-4-0, +243)
Aljamain Sterling is the All-Time #47 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (1-2-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#2FW] Movsar Evloev (19-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#48FW] Calvin Kattar (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (20-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (20-5-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Aljamain Sterling | -310 | 72.17% | |
| Elo K170 | Aljamain Sterling | 2161.58 | +181.21 | 73.95% |
| Elo Modified | Aljamain Sterling | 2045.40 | +103.34 | 64.45% |
| Glicko-1 | Aljamain Sterling | 2073.64 | +44.65 | 56.39% |
| WHR | Aljamain Sterling | 1936.22 | +69.73 | 59.90% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Aljamain Sterling 36.0, Brian Ortega 34.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 259, Brian Ortega 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#5][#4UFC] Sergei Pavlovich (19-3-0, -263) vs. [#10][#7UFC] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1-0, +210)
Sergei Pavlovich is the All-Time #35 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (1-2-0)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#12HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#4HW+] Alexander Volkov (38-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (3-0-0)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#13HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#38HW+] Ryan Spann (23-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2024-05-11: W vs. [#208HW+] Robelis Despaigne (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Sergei Pavlovich | -263 | 69.19% | |
| Elo K170 | Sergei Pavlovich | 1997.75 | +109.86 | 65.30% |
| Elo Modified | Sergei Pavlovich | 1987.45 | +84.49 | 61.92% |
| Glicko-1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 2065.40 | +133.36 | 68.30% |
| WHR | Sergei Pavlovich | 1965.29 | +152.62 | 70.65% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sergei Pavlovich 33.3, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergei Pavlovich 203, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Both parlays still in the green!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Vincent Juico interviews Oleg
An interview with yours truly, courtesy of Vincent Juico’s Sports for All podcast. Discussing MMA rankings, upcoming fights, and more – give it a listen!
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev (08-16-2025)
Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1P4P][#4DD][#1][#1UFC] Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0, +174) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0, -210)
Dricus Du Plessis is the All-Time #4 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Khamzat Chimaev is the All-Time #31 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2025-02-08: W vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#5MW] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:38 of round 4
2024-01-20: W vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#10MW] Robert Whittaker (26-9-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:34 of round 1
2023-10-21: W vs. [#4WW] Kamaru Usman (21-4-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Khamzat Chimaev | -210 | 64.98% | |
| Elo K170 | Dricus Du Plessis | 2382.91 | +88.41 | 62.46% |
| Elo Modified | Dricus Du Plessis | 2309.13 | +50.66 | 57.24% |
| Glicko-1 | Dricus Du Plessis | 2396.54 | +42.21 | 56.04% |
| WHR | Dricus Du Plessis | 2200.82 | +45.60 | 56.53% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dricus Du Plessis 31.6, Khamzat Chimaev 31.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dricus Du Plessis 189, Khamzat Chimaev 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8][#8UFC] Lerone Murphy (16-0-1, +116) vs. [*] Aaron Pico (13-4-0, -140)
Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#19FW] Dan Ige (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#47FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Aaron Pico (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [*] Henry Corrales (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#65FW] Pedro Carvalho (13-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#311MW] James Gonzalez (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Aaron Pico | -140 | 55.74% | |
| Elo K170 | Lerone Murphy | 2107.74 | +240.04 | 79.93% |
| Elo Modified | Lerone Murphy | 2049.17 | +165.04 | 72.11% |
| Glicko-1 | Lerone Murphy | 2082.95 | +156.57 | 71.12% |
| WHR | Lerone Murphy | 1941.92 | +177.74 | 73.56% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Lerone Murphy 34.0, Aaron Pico 28.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lerone Murphy 133, Aaron Pico 539
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#10][#10UFC] Geoff Neal (16-6-0, +212) vs. [#26][#22UFC] Carlos Prates (21-7-0, -260)
Geoff Neal is the All-Time #50 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (1-2-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#35WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-02-17: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#6WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (19-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (2-1-0)
2025-04-26: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#34WW] Neil Magny (30-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:50 of round 1
2024-08-17: W vs. [#66WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Carlos Prates | -260 | 69.26% | |
| Elo K170 | Geoff Neal | 1973.64 | +62.62 | 58.91% |
| Elo Modified | Geoff Neal | 1977.26 | +74.60 | 60.57% |
| Glicko-1 | Geoff Neal | 2045.31 | +55.97 | 57.98% |
| WHR | Carlos Prates | 1934.25 | +34.28 | 54.92% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Geoff Neal 34.9, Carlos Prates 32.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 294, Carlos Prates 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Prates leads 1-0
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez (08-09-2025)
Middleweight (185)
[#10][#9UFC] Roman Dolidze (15-3-0, +258) vs. [#16][#13UFC] Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0, -323)
Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (3-0-0)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#18MW] Marvin Vettori (19-9-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2024-06-29: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#14MW] Brendan Allen (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#48MW] Michel Pereira (32-13-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5
2024-02-17: W vs. [#23MW] Roman Kopylov (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Anthony Hernandez | -323 | 73.21% | |
| Elo K170 | Anthony Hernandez | 2085.29 | +34.75 | 54.98% |
| Elo Modified | Anthony Hernandez | 2072.54 | +25.70 | 53.69% |
| Glicko-1 | Anthony Hernandez | 2141.02 | +11.40 | 51.64% |
| WHR | Anthony Hernandez | 2024.77 | +89.16 | 62.55% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Roman Dolidze 37.0, Anthony Hernandez 31.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 147, Anthony Hernandez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Roman Dolidze leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#11][#9UFC] Steve Erceg (12-4-0, -400) vs. [#51][#23UFC] Ode Osbourne (13-8-0, +300)
Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (0-3-0)
2025-03-29: L vs. [#6DD][#7P4P][#2FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#6FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2024-05-04: L vs. [#4DD][#5P4P][#1FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (30-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Ode Osbourne (1-2-0)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#99FLY] Luis Gurule (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2024-09-14: L vs. [#91FLY] Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#83FLY] Jafel Filho (16-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Steve Erceg | -400 | 76.19% | |
| Elo K170 | Steve Erceg | 1640.75 | +109.70 | 65.28% |
| Elo Modified | Steve Erceg | 1645.13 | +130.71 | 67.97% |
| Glicko-1 | Steve Erceg | 1676.92 | +174.36 | 73.18% |
| WHR | Steve Erceg | 1663.23 | +209.59 | 76.97% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Steve Erceg 30.0, Ode Osbourne 33.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 133, Ode Osbourne 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12][#11UFC] Angela Hill (18-14-0, +153) vs. [#13][#12UFC] Iasmin Lucindo (17-6-0, -184)
Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#25SW] Ketlen Souza (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#7SW] Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#38SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (2-1-0)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#4SW] Amanda Lemos (15-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Marina Rodriguez (17-6-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#49SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Iasmin Lucindo | -184 | 62.10% | |
| Elo K170 | Angela Hill | 1635.09 | +40.21 | 55.76% |
| Elo Modified | Angela Hill | 1606.47 | +46.65 | 56.67% |
| Glicko-1 | Angela Hill | 1596.50 | +54.19 | 57.74% |
| WHR | Angela Hill | 1541.10 | +65.28 | 59.29% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Angela Hill 40.6, Iasmin Lucindo 23.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 175, Iasmin Lucindo 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
We hit a huge parlay last week! Let’s try again..
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs. Taira (08-02-2025)
Flyweight (125)
[#7][#6UFC] Tatsuro Taira (16-1-0, -279) vs. [#10][#8UFC] Amir Albazi (17-2-0, +224)
Tatsuro Taira is the All-Time #28 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #43 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Tatsuro Taira (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: L vs. [#4FLY] Brandon Royval (17-8-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#21FLY] Alex Perez (25-9-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:59 of round 2
2023-12-09: W vs. [#144FLY] Carlos Hernandez (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#6DD][#7P4P][#2FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#6FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#69FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Tatsuro Taira | -279 | 70.46% | |
| Elo K170 | Tatsuro Taira | 1836.07 | +27.22 | 53.91% |
| Elo Modified | Tatsuro Taira | 1857.25 | +85.05 | 62.00% |
| Glicko-1 | Tatsuro Taira | 1932.01 | +105.32 | 64.71% |
| WHR | Tatsuro Taira | 1833.89 | +95.11 | 63.36% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Tatsuro Taira 25.5, Amir Albazi 31.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tatsuro Taira 294, Amir Albazi 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#40][#22UFC] Mateusz Rebecki (21-2-0, -216) vs. [#106][#50UFC] Chris Duncan (13-2-0, +176)
Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Rebecki (2-1-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#41LW] Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-11: L vs. [#25LW] Diego Ferreira (19-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2023-11-11: W vs. [#164LW] Roosevelt Roberts (12-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:08 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Chris Duncan (2-1-0)
2025-03-22: W vs. [#251LW] Jordan Vucenic (13-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:42 of round 2
2024-09-28: W vs. [#190LW] Bolaji Oki (10-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:34 of round 1
2024-02-24: L vs. [#57LW] Manuel Torres (16-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mateusz Rebecki | -216 | 65.35% | |
| Elo K170 | Mateusz Rebecki | 1916.24 | +202.63 | 76.25% |
| Elo Modified | Mateusz Rebecki | 1888.01 | +187.60 | 74.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Mateusz Rebecki | 1936.54 | +209.46 | 76.95% |
| WHR | Mateusz Rebecki | 1863.63 | +193.59 | 75.30% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mateusz Rebecki 32.8, Chris Duncan 32.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Rebecki 280, Chris Duncan 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#69][#35UFC] Esteban Ribovics (14-2-0, -273) vs. [#95][#46UFC] Elves Brener (16-5-0, +220)
Last 3 Fights: Esteban Ribovics (2-1-0)
2025-03-01: L vs. [#42LW] Nasrat Haqparast (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#90LW] Daniel Zellhuber (15-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#128LW] Terrance McKinney (17-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:37 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Elves Brener (1-2-0)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#17LW] Joel Alvarez (22-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:36 of round 3
2024-05-04: L vs. [#41LW] Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-2) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#203LW] Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:01 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Esteban Ribovics | -273 | 70.07% | |
| Elo K170 | Esteban Ribovics | 1753.16 | +158.92 | 71.40% |
| Elo Modified | Esteban Ribovics | 1762.46 | +164.19 | 72.02% |
| Glicko-1 | Esteban Ribovics | 1811.97 | +149.62 | 70.29% |
| WHR | Esteban Ribovics | 1707.32 | +56.46 | 58.06% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Esteban Ribovics 29.2, Elves Brener 27.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Esteban Ribovics 154, Elves Brener 364
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Both parlays are still in the green! Woohoo!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder (07-26-2025)
Middleweight (185)
[#6][#6UFC] Robert Whittaker (26-8-0, -162) vs. [#18][#15UFC] Reinier de Ridder (20-2-0, +133)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #4 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#4MW] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:34 of round 1
2024-06-22: W vs. [#30MW] Ikram Aliskerov (16-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#10MW] Paulo Costa (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Reinier de Ridder (3-0-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#34MW] Bo Nickal (7-1-0) via TKO (Knees) in 1:53 of round 2
2025-01-18: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 1
2024-11-09: W vs. [#48MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:44 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Robert Whittaker | -162 | 59.02% | |
| Elo K170 | Robert Whittaker | 2124.73 | +148.96 | 70.21% |
| Elo Modified | Robert Whittaker | 2110.57 | +109.07 | 65.20% |
| Glicko-1 | Robert Whittaker | 2173.56 | +98.11 | 63.76% |
| WHR | Robert Whittaker | 2000.64 | +34.83 | 55.00% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Robert Whittaker 34.6, Reinier de Ridder 34.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 273, Reinier de Ridder 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#3][#3UFC] Petr Yan (18-5-0, -375) vs. [#19][#17UFC] Marcus McGhee (10-1-0, +289)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (2-1-0)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#7BW] Yadong Song (22-9-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#1P4P][#2DD][#1BW] Merab Dvalishvili (20-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Marcus McGhee (3-0-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#24BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#365BW] Gaston Bolanos (8-5-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:29 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [*] J.P. Buys (9-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:19 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Petr Yan | -375 | 75.43% | |
| Elo K170 | Petr Yan | 2126.82 | +441.67 | 92.70% |
| Elo Modified | Petr Yan | 2157.81 | +467.66 | 93.66% |
| Glicko-1 | Petr Yan | 2214.70 | +451.07 | 93.07% |
| WHR | Petr Yan | 2073.60 | +465.75 | 93.59% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Petr Yan 32.4, Marcus McGhee 35.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Petr Yan 245, Marcus McGhee 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#29][#22UFC] Sharabutdin Magomedov (15-1-0, -555) vs. [#42][#30UFC] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-9-0, +400)
Last 3 Fights: Sharabutdin Magomedov (2-1-0)
2025-02-01: L vs. [#16MW] Michael Page (23-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#100MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfists) in 4:52 of round 1
2024-08-03: W vs. [#47MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (21-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Marc-Andre Barriault (1-2-0)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#66MW] Bruno Silva (23-13-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:27 of round 1
2024-11-02: L vs. [#59MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 1
2024-06-29: L vs. [#19MW] Joe Pyfer (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Sharabutdin Magomedov | -555 | 80.90% | |
| Elo K170 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1853.64 | +291.74 | 84.28% |
| Elo Modified | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1865.19 | +242.12 | 80.12% |
| Glicko-1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1926.51 | +242.50 | 80.15% |
| WHR | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1855.07 | +261.83 | 81.87% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sharabutdin Magomedov 31.2, Marc-Andre Barriault 35.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sharabutdin Magomedov 175, Marc-Andre Barriault 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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