Fight Matrix Program – UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (2020-07-11)
Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#3DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (16-1-0, -250) vs. [#2] Jorge Masvidal (35-13-0, +199)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#4WW] Colby Covington (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5
2019-03-02: W vs. [#6WW] Tyron Woodley (19-5-1) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#11WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#12WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-07-06: W vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#8MW] Darren Till (18-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kamaru Usman | -250 | 68.11% | |
| Elo K170 | Kamaru Usman | 2396.13 | +176.08 | 69.09% |
| Elo Modified | Kamaru Usman | 2317.36 | +101.19 | 60.90% |
| Glicko-1 | Kamaru Usman | 2384.93 | +27.47 | 53.95% |
| WHR | Kamaru Usman | 2146.61 | +63.71 | 57.22% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 210, Jorge Masvidal 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0
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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0, -217) vs. [#2/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0, +176)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #7 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#3BW] Jose Aldo (28-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] Chad Mendes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#7FW] Frankie Edgar (23-8-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#3LW/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexander Volkanovski | -217 | 65.38% | |
| Elo K170 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2308.02 | +119.40 | 63.31% |
| Elo Modified | Alexander Volkanovski | 2269.35 | +115.50 | 62.38% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2338.08 | +89.98 | 62.67% |
| WHR | Alexander Volkanovski | 2101.19 | +50.64 | 55.76% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 210, Max Holloway 210
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 2-1
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#3] Jose Aldo (28-6-0, +180) vs. [#4] Petr Yan (14-1-0, -224)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Petr Yan is the All-Time #40 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#25LW] Renato Carneiro (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#16BW] Urijah Faber (35-11-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:43 of round 3
2019-06-08: W vs. [#14BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#10BW] John Dodson (21-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Petr Yan | -224 | 65.94% | |
| Elo K170 | Petr Yan | 2060.78 | +70.94 | 58.03% |
| Elo Modified | Petr Yan | 2050.13 | +23.41 | 52.56% |
| Glicko-1 | Jose Aldo | 2118.97 | +27.90 | 54.01% |
| WHR | Petr Yan | 1993.22 | +59.83 | 56.79% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 210, Petr Yan 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
WHR Ratings Updated (Again)
Thanks to computerrank over at BoxRec, WHR framework has been updated to allow for explicit scoring of win types (like Glicko and standard system). See the FAQ for more info.
WHR Career Histories of Fighters who set All-Time WHR Records
One more fancy graph. WHR histories for all fighters who set all-time highest WHR records during their career.
In other words… fighters that (by WHR standards) were “the best fighters ever” at some point when they fought. Josh Barnett is a bit of a surprise… otherwise, names we all expect.
WHR History: Jones, Cormier, Miocic
Three guys whose careers have been associated with one another… If Jones/Miocic ever happens, it will all come full circle.
WHR Heavyweight History: Top 10 All-Time Heavyweights
While WHR’s superiority as a current ranking system is in question, its ability to view the historical scene is probably unparalleled. To demonstrate, I took the Top 10 Heavyweights from the All-Time Rankings and dumped their WHR ratings, fight-by-fight, into a chart.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker (2020-06-27)
Lightweight (155)
[#3/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (25-6-0, -204) vs. [#7] Dan Hooker (20-8-0, +167)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#3P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#32WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (3-0-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#10LW] Paul Felder (17-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#11LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#114WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Dustin Poirier | -204 | 64.18% | |
| Elo K170 | Dustin Poirier | 2256.46 | +184.10 | 69.87% |
| Elo Modified | Dustin Poirier | 2201.67 | +225.37 | 72.84% |
| Glicko-1 | Dustin Poirier | 2259.25 | +242.58 | 80.16% |
| WHR | Dustin Poirier | 2130.87 | +224.95 | 73.65% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 294, Dan Hooker 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#29] Mike Perry (13-6-0, -285) vs. [#149] Mickey Gall (6-2-0, +227)
Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#21WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#19WW] Vicente Luque (18-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#37WW] Alex Oliveira (21-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Mickey Gall (2-1-0)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#339WW] Salim Touahri (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#63WW] Diego Sanchez (30-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 2
2018-08-25: W vs. [#206MW] George Sullivan (18-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:09 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mike Perry | -285 | 70.76% | |
| Elo K170 | Mike Perry | 1697.47 | +206.64 | 71.99% |
| Elo Modified | Mike Perry | 1726.18 | +204.26 | 70.97% |
| Glicko-1 | Mike Perry | 1783.74 | +249.09 | 80.75% |
| WHR | Mike Perry | 1682.91 | +204.61 | 71.80% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 196, Mickey Gall 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#28] Brendan Allen (14-3-0, -304) vs. [#66] Kyle Daukaus (9-0-0, +248)
Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#49MW] Tom Breese (11-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:47 of round 1
2019-10-18: W vs. [#44MW] Kevin Holland (17-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2019-07-16: W vs. [#254MW] Aaron Jeffery (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (3-0-0)
2020-02-01: W vs. [#168MW] Nolan Norwood (12-6-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:36 of round 2
2019-09-21: W vs. [#255MW] Stephen Regman (9-5-0) via Submission (DArce Choke) in 0:50 of round 2
2019-06-25: W vs. [#261WW] Michael Lombardo (11-2-0) via UD ()
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brendan Allen | -304 | 72.36% | |
| Elo K170 | Brendan Allen | 1818.28 | +198.59 | 71.25% |
| Elo Modified | Brendan Allen | 1825.72 | +152.53 | 66.10% |
| Glicko-1 | Brendan Allen | 1901.40 | +219.83 | 78.00% |
| WHR | Brendan Allen | 1748.31 | +133.58 | 64.80% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 119, Kyle Daukaus 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
WHR Rating Update (Again)
Notable Info
- Bug related to draws in WHR framework is fixed (thanks to computerrank over at BoxRec). Also went back to the original plan of lumping non-unanimous decisions in with draws (see the Glicko post for supporting info).
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov (2020-06-20)
Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Curtis Blaydes (13-2-0, -332) vs. [#10] Alexander Volkov (31-7-0, +259)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #38 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #41 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (3-0-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#7HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [#19HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [*] Justin Willis (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-25)
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (2-1-0)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#85HW+] Greg Hardy (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#5HW+] Derrick Lewis (23-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 3
2018-03-17: W vs. [#14HW+] Fabricio Werdum (23-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 4
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Curtis Blaydes | -332 | 73.39% | |
| Elo K170 | Curtis Blaydes | 2049.87 | +89.61 | 60.09% |
| Elo Modified | Curtis Blaydes | 2055.19 | +74.07 | 58.03% |
| Glicko-1 | Curtis Blaydes | 2128.70 | +83.82 | 61.84% |
| WHR | Curtis Blaydes | 2020.68 | +150.00 | 66.49% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 147, Alexander Volkov 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#6] Josh Emmett (15-2-0, +112) vs. [#20] Shane Burgos (13-1-0, -138)
Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#34FW] Mirsad Bektic (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#82LW] Michael Johnson (19-16-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 3
2018-02-24: L vs. [#17FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-18-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Shane Burgos (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#57FW] Makwan Amirkhani (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 3
2019-05-04: W vs. [#24FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#398LW] Kurt Holobaugh (17-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:11 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Shane Burgos | -138 | 55.14% | |
| Elo K170 | Josh Emmett | 1954.97 | +74.15 | 58.39% |
| Elo Modified | Josh Emmett | 1925.19 | +107.02 | 61.50% |
| Glicko-1 | Josh Emmett | 1992.69 | +139.91 | 69.11% |
| WHR | Josh Emmett | 1884.44 | +91.81 | 60.34% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 343, Shane Burgos 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#6] Raquel Pennington (10-8-0, -139) vs. [*] Marion Reneau (9-5-1, +114)
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #46 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (1-2-0)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#2BW/#10DD] Holly Holm (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#4BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#1BW/#8DD/#9P4P] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Marion Reneau (1-2-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#13BW] Yana Kunitskaya (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-14: L vs. [*] Cat Zingano (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#7BW] Sara McMann (12-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:40 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Raquel Pennington | -139 | 55.44% | |
| Elo K170 | Raquel Pennington | 1485.54 | +141.90 | 65.66% |
| Elo Modified | Raquel Pennington | 1463.43 | +69.96 | 57.60% |
| Glicko-1 | Raquel Pennington | 1434.04 | +4.39 | 50.63% |
| WHR | Raquel Pennington | 1485.75 | +86.15 | 59.72% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raquel Pennington 154, Marion Reneau 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raquel Pennington leads 3-1
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Keep Reading
WHR RATING UPDATE (#2)
Notable Info
- After recent changes were made, extensive testing of the w2 value suggests value used in WHR be changed to 42 (from 10). WHR ratings updated.
WHR Rating Update
Notable Info
- It turns out the WHR system that we recently rolled out does not properly handle draws — for every draw, it was adding a win AND loss. Since I lumped close decisions in with draws based on the research I did w/ the Glicko system, this caused a pretty large ratings issue. I started noticing strange patterns of fighters in draws and close decisions who both lost considerable points directly after the fight.
Further research is required to determine if this is a systemic problem or an implementation problem. In the interim, I updated the WHR ratings and tossed out all draws, along with no contests and disqualifications. Before, we were also treating split & majority decisions as draws in the WHR ratings, but we will now treat those as wins (for now). Furthermore, I increased the accuracy as the ratings now run until the convergence is below 0.00001 (vs. 1.0). Technically, this paints a more “accurate” picture.