Rating code updated to version 1.11

• Re-worked quality performance decay.  Before, fighters in a quality performance decay were getting penalized with their full decay before each bout.  This was not intended.  Now, fighters are penalized with partial decays, equivalent to the time elapsed since the previous bout.  In addition, the decay rate was strengthened.

A rating set will be released sometime between now and Wednesday, once everything is tested and finalized.

Ratings as of March 9, 2008.  Only minor changes have occurred since the last release.

• Recent shows added to database, such as Cage Rage (3/8), American Fight League (3/7), etc.
• Various division corrections.
• Some old bouts added to database.

Ratings include 1.1 update which is detailed in the previous post, as well as results from the Sengoku card.

Notable Changes

• Josh Barnett re-enters the Heavyweight rankings at #6.  However, he is in immediate danger of slipping to #7 as it has been quite sometime since he has performed well against a quality opponent, relative to his status.
• Takanori Gomi re-enters the Lightweight rankings at #1.  He too, is in a quality performance decay, but has a fair lead over the #2 ranked Calvancanti.  However, a dominant win over Aoki would likely propel Calvancanti over Gomi as #1 in the division.

After the Sengoku card, version 1.1 of the rating system will be live. This is a relatively major update and will affect parts of all divisions. However, the Top 15-20 fighters in divisions from Lightweight and up, are relatively untouched. Improvements will mainly be seen in the lower weight classes, as well as the Women rankings.

Notable Changes

• Fighters rated above the starter debut level can no longer accrue points by defeating fighters without a quality performance. A similar protocol was in place, but it was improved upon. This change will put more emphasis on beating experienced, proven opponents.
• A “sticky” zone has been placed from the starter debut level, to 2x this level. In other words, fighters who are within this zone, or fall through the zone, will experience a more gradual descent to ensure separation between experienced “journeymen” and fighters who are very early in their career. This results in better handling of mediocre veteran fighters and those in the lower weight divisions. The effects of the “sticky” zone will not be in place if a fighter loses to an opponent below the starter debut level.
• Inactive and quality performance penalties were softened for those falling within, or below the aforementioned “sticky” zone.
• Bug fix with regards to fighters being penalized when coming back from inactivity.  Some fighters were over-penalized if they did not return with a quality performance.

Here is how UFC 82 affected the the Top-10 rankings across all divisions:

Heavyweight and above:  Andrei Arlovski moves up to #5 with a TKO stoppage of Jake O’Brien.  Heath Herring moves up to #8 for his first Top-10 appearance in quite some time, while Cheick Kongo drops to #10.

Rank	↑ ↓	Fighter	Record	Points
1		Fedor Emelianenko Last Fight: 12/31/2007 [Yarennoka]	27-1-0	520
2		Randy Couture Last Fight: 8/25/2007 [UFC]	16-8-0	399
3		Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Last Fight: 2/2/2008 [UFC]	31-4-1	374
4		Fabricio Werdum Last Fight: 1/19/2008 [UFC]	10-3-1	235
5	3	Andrei Arlovski Last Fight: 3/1/2008 [UFC]	12-5-0	193
6		Gabriel Gonzaga Last Fight: 1/19/2008 [UFC]	8-3-0	190
7		Mirko Filipovic Last Fight: 9/8/2007 [UFC]	22-6-2	184
8	9	Heath Herring Last Fight: 3/1/2008 [UFC]	28-13-0	176
9		Tim Sylvia Last Fight: 2/2/2008 [UFC]	25-4-0	172
10	5	Cheick Kongo Last Fight: 3/1/2008 [UFC]	11-4-1	165

Keep Reading

Rating Set #11 released on March 2, 2008.

Be sure to check out all of the divisions, as there are many changes across the board.

Unified Middleweight Championship
[#1] Anderson Silva vs. [#3] Dan Henderson (Projected MW Ranking)

Heavyweights
[#5] Cheick Kongo vs. [#17] Heath Herring

Middleweights
[#10] Yushin Okami vs. [NR] Evan Tanner

Middleweights
[#15] Chris Leben vs. [#51] Alessio Sakara (Projected MW Ranking)

Welterweights
[#5] Jon Fitch vs. [#17] Chris Wilson

Heavyweights
[#8] Andrei Arlovski vs. [NR] Jake O’Brien

Welterweights
[#68] Luke Cummo vs. [#49] Luigi Fioravanti

Welterweights
[#9] Diego Sanchez vs. [#240] David Bielkheden

Welterweights
[#8] Josh Koscheck vs. [#24] Dustin Hazelett

Lightweights
[#129] Jorge Gurgel vs. [#175] John Halverson

Ranking Note: Gray font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.

Set #10 primarily includes changes due to database maintenance.  It will be a common trend (at least for the near future) to see maintenance releases between the typical post-show releases.  Maintenance simply means that in my spare time, I’ll go through Sherdog bout information and resolve errors, omissions, or bad data in order to provide the most accurate ratings.

Of course, this will result in fluctuations.

Rating set #9 is now available.  Please refer to the previously related post for the special considerations regarding this update.

Ratings to be updated with the following considerations:

– Takanori Gomi has entered the inactive penalty stage several days ago, and will be dropped from the Lightweight rankings due to over 365 days of inactivity. Gesias Calvancanti will be the new #1 ranked Lightweight.

– Results of recent cards from Shooto, HDNet, DEEP, and others, will be reflected.

– Minor maintenance was performed with regards to fighter divisions. Some fighters will receive their accurate division assignment per the guidelines of the system. This is simply a maturation process of the system.

– Through my independent research, I have verified that fights taking place during the Ultimate Fighter: Season 2, were in fact, officially sanctioned pro bouts. Other than the finals, this is the only season where this is the case. As such, they will be added to the rating system database. This was confirmed with the Nevada State Athletic Commission web site.

– Other minor bouts in past years have been added to the MMA database.

It is needless to say, that all of these points will cause some moderate shuffling within the rankings.

Ratings as of February 21, 2008

– This is just a maintenance release.  Bouts were added from various times in MMA history.

– Implemented methods to incorporate professional bouts that are not on the Sherdog database.  This will be handled on a case-by-case basis in instances where results can be verified through an independent source.  We still rely 99.9% on Sherdog’s database.

Remember, if you want to view archived rankings, you can do so through the ‘Historical Rankings’ link within the ‘MMA Rankings’ dropdown.  We archive the first ranking sets in each calendar month.  Also, if you wish to comment on this release, or any other topic, please do so in the forums.

Ratings released on Feb 17, 2008 with the following considerations:

– SmackGirl, EliteXC, and other minor shows have results which affect primarily the Heavyweight and Women’s division.

– Version 1.03 of the rating system is launched.  The latest update has very minor changes.

– Top 60 rankings have been expanded to Top 75!!

Version 1.03

– Prevented excessive credit for opposition quality in cases of blow-out losses to much higher opposition.

– Corrected possible bug with regards to fighters losing beyond expected maximum points if recent opposition is extremely poor.

These changes will be present in set #7, which should be released on Sunday, Feb 17.  These changes will have very minor effects on the rankings.

The major changes in the rankings are due to the WEC 32 card, last night in Albuquerque.  Carlos Condit’s win boosts him up to #6 at Welterweight, but does nothing to help “unclog” the #6-12 area where top fighters are separated by hardly any points at all.  Bantamweight and Featherweight rankings have changed dramatically after last night’s WEC.  MMA needs this kind of competition in the lower weight divisions.

Look for the next update on Sunday.

Just a reminder, official update #6 will be released today, while #7 will be released either Sunday or Monday. Along with #7, we will further expand the rankings. The extent of this expansion will be determined at the time of the update.