With UFC 152 inching closer day-by-day, it’s time for another chapter in the “Gambling Analysis” series.
In some ways, it is good that UFC 151 was canceled as it certainly boosts the PPV legitimacy of the UFC 152 card. With Jones taking on Belfort, who shouldn’t even be getting a whiff of a Light Heavyweight Championship, the co-main event is the fight that I’m expecting to deliver the most. As such, that’s the fight we’ll be looking at. In this fight, we have Joseph Benavidez, one of the best Bantamweights in history, taking on Demetrious Johnson, for the inaugural UFC Flyweight Championship. As of the time of writing, UFC 152 betting on Top Bet features Benavidez as a -290 favorite.
Although the point difference between the two fighters isn’t that large within the FightMatrix ranking system, I always like what I see with Benavidez. My feeling is that he does just about everything a little better than Johnson and holds physical advantages that will be key in this fight. I’m predicting he will come out even stronger for his second fight in the Flyweight division and take out ‘Mighty Mouse’ in the third round.
For a reference, here are the details for our past “gambling analysis” article picks:
- UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
- UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
- UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
- StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
- UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
- UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
- UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
- Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- PENDING: UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3)
If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $355.95. The listed odds are either approximations, or provided by our sponsors, so with a little work on your part, you could increase this total a bit as we don’t go out of our way to find the absolute best odds. Furthermore, if you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have even more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t include these as official bets.
Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.