If you’re keeping count at home, I’m on a roll with our “gambling analysis” posts, picking 6-for-6 winners (1 other ending in a ‘no contest’) with near perfection on the outcome type and round.
In my honest opinion, the upcoming UFC: Fuel TV 1 card doesn’t provide many solid betting options and I feel like I’m forcing a pick this week. Overall, the matches are well constructed and this will usually lead to some unexpected outcomes.
Having said that, betting on MMA at TopBet can currently yield you odds of -140 with a pick of Dave Herman over Stefan Struve at the upcoming Fuel TV event. Though they are very closely ranked here at FightMatrix (Herman #24 / Struve #28), I think Struve is too big of a target and has too weak of a chin to stay standing. 15 of Herman’s 22 wins have come by (T)KO, and he should improve this rate with a late first round stoppage of Struve.