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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 (07-11-2026)

Posted on July 6, 2026 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#5LW][#5LWUFC] Max Holloway (27-9-0, -222) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (22-6-0, +183)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #47 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (1-2-0)
2026-03-07: L vs. [#8DD][#3LW] Charles Oliveira (37-11-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2025-07-19: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#2LW] Ilia Topuria (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (1-2-0)
2021-07-10: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2021-01-23: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2020-01-18: W vs. [*] Donald Cerrone (36-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Max Holloway -222 66.11%
Elo K170 Max Holloway 2242.31 +129.67 67.84%
Elo Modified Max Holloway 2218.45 +161.20 71.66%
Glicko-1 Max Holloway 2297.50 +211.58 77.17%
WHR Max Holloway 2070.46 +256.11 81.37%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Max Holloway 34.6, Conor McGregor 38.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 126, Conor McGregor 1827
Previous Match-up Record: Conor McGregor leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 3-2
.

Lightweight (155)
[#7][#6UFC] Benoit St. Denis (17-3-0, -143) vs. [#12][#11UFC] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0, +118)

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2026-01-31: W vs. [#15LW] Dan Hooker (24-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 2
2025-11-15: W vs. [#17LW] Beneil Dariush (23-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2025-09-06: W vs. [#8LW] Mauricio Ruffy (14-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (2-1-0)
2026-01-24: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#1LW] Justin Gaethje (28-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#32LW] Michael Chandler (23-11-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:07 of round 3
2024-07-27: W vs. [#43LW] King Green (35-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Benoit St. Denis -143 56.19%
Elo K170 Benoit St. Denis 2171.14 +115.80 66.07%
Elo Modified Benoit St. Denis 2114.96 +91.61 62.89%
Glicko-1 Benoit St. Denis 2217.43 +115.13 65.99%
WHR Benoit St. Denis 1997.09 +9.40 51.35%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 30.5, Paddy Pimblett 31.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 161, Paddy Pimblett 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#5][#5UFC] Cory Sandhagen (18-6-0, -151) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Mario Bautista (17-3-0, +122)
Cory Sandhagen is the All-Time #15 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cory Sandhagen (1-2-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#4DD][#8P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-7-1) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 4:08 of round 2
2024-08-03: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (2-1-0)
2026-02-07: W vs. [#27FW] Vinicius Oliveira (25-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 2
2025-10-25: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#17BW] Patrick Mix (19-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cory Sandhagen -151 57.18%
Elo K170 Mario Bautista 2126.61 +24.98 53.59%
Elo Modified Mario Bautista 2066.19 +10.95 51.58%
Glicko-1 Cory Sandhagen 2146.45 +8.56 51.23%
WHR Cory Sandhagen 1943.31 +4.86 50.70%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Cory Sandhagen 34.2, Mario Bautista 33.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cory Sandhagen 280, Mario Bautista 154
Previous Match-up Record: Cory Sandhagen leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#6][#6UFC] Loneer Kavanagh (10-1-0, -226) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Brandon Royval (17-9-0, +182)
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #13 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Loneer Kavanagh (2-1-0)
2026-02-28: W vs. [#8FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-10-2) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#23FLY] Charles Johnson (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:35 of round 2
2025-03-22: W vs. [#94FLY] Felipe dos Santos (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (1-2-0)
2025-12-13: L vs. [#3FLY] Manel Kape (23-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2025-06-28: L vs. [#1DD][#2P4P][#1FLY] Joshua Van (17-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#4FLY] Tatsuro Taira (18-2-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Loneer Kavanagh -226 66.16%
Elo K170 Brandon Royval 1831.88 +125.99 67.38%
Elo Modified Brandon Royval 1742.34 +23.21 53.34%
Glicko-1 Brandon Royval 1771.99 +46.52 56.65%
WHR Brandon Royval 1697.11 +43.87 56.28%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Loneer Kavanagh 27.1, Brandon Royval 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Loneer Kavanagh 133, Brandon Royval 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Royval leads 2-1
.

Lightweight (155)
[#43][#25UFC] King Green (35-17-1, +124) vs. [#68][#36UFC] Terrance McKinney (18-8-0, -152)

Last 3 Fights: King Green (3-0-0)
2026-05-09: W vs. [#1754LW] Jeremy Stephens (29-23-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:20 of round 1
2026-02-28: W vs. [#111LW] Daniel Zellhuber (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2
2025-12-13: W vs. [#85LW] Lance Gibson Jr. (10-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Terrance McKinney (2-1-0)
2026-03-28: W vs. [#86LW] Kyle Nelson (17-7-1) via NC in 0:24 of round 1
2025-12-06: L vs. [#48LW] Chris Duncan (15-3-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 2:30 of round 1
2025-06-28: W vs. [#359LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:55 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Terrance McKinney -152 57.46%
Elo K170 King Green 1823.08 +90.05 62.68%
Elo Modified King Green 1793.46 +77.14 60.92%
Glicko-1 King Green 1852.45 +89.52 62.61%
WHR King Green 1778.64 +128.45 67.69%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: King Green 39.8, Terrance McKinney 31.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: King Green 63, Terrance McKinney 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#77][#46UFC] Cesar Almeida (7-2-0, +178) vs. [#109][#54UFC] Damian Pinas (9-1-0, -221)

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (2-1-0)
2025-12-13: L vs. [#49MW] Cezary Oleksiejczuk (17-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-01-11: W vs. [*] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:16 of round 1
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Ihor Potieria (25-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Damian Pinas (3-0-0)
2026-02-28: W vs. [#228MW] Wesley Schultz (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2025-09-30: W vs. [#238MW] Vitor Costa (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2024-12-13: W vs. [NA] Wesley da Silva Marques (5-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:59 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Damian Pinas -221 65.68%
Elo K170 Damian Pinas 1585.22 +22.66 53.26%
Elo Modified Damian Pinas 1632.95 +0.75 50.11%
Glicko-1 Cesar Almeida 1685.51 +6.39 50.92%
WHR Cesar Almeida 1680.21 +44.35 56.35%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Cesar Almeida 38.3, Damian Pinas 24.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cesar Almeida 210, Damian Pinas 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#118][#57UFC] Zachary Reese (10-3-0, +117) vs. [#124][#58UFC] Ryan Gandra (9-1-0, -142)

Last 3 Fights: Zachary Reese (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2026-02-21: L vs. [#71MW] Michel Pereira (33-15-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#167MW] Jackson Mcvey (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:38 of round 2
2025-09-13: NC vs. [#199MW] Sedriques Dumas (11-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Gandra (3-0-0)
2026-02-28: W vs. [#579MW] Jose Medina (11-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2025-08-26: W vs. [#316MW] Trent Miller (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:51 of round 1
2024-11-22: W vs. [#435MW] Vladimir Calvo Marrero (7-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:28 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Gandra -142 56.01%
Elo K170 Ryan Gandra 1577.11 +78.08 61.05%
Elo Modified Ryan Gandra 1612.50 +28.49 54.09%
Glicko-1 Ryan Gandra 1632.52 +19.87 52.86%
WHR Ryan Gandra 1537.78 +30.21 54.34%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Zachary Reese 32.3, Ryan Gandra 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zachary Reese 140, Ryan Gandra 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#52][#34UFC] Cody Garbrandt (15-7-0, +312) vs. [#60][#37UFC] Adrian Yanez (17-6-1, -426)
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (1-2-0)
2026-03-07: W vs. [#150BW] Long Xiao (27-11-0) via UD (28-27, 28-27, 28-27)
2025-06-14: L vs. [#19BW] Raoni Barcelos (22-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Adrian Yanez (1-1-1)
2026-03-28: D vs. [#46BW] Ricky Simon (22-7-1) via NC in 5:00 of round 3
2024-12-14: L vs. [#31BW] Daniel Marcos (18-1-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#739BW] Vinicius Salvador (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Adrian Yanez -426 76.94%
Elo K170 Cody Garbrandt 1736.95 +73.73 60.46%
Elo Modified Cody Garbrandt 1727.92 +55.93 57.98%
Glicko-1 Cody Garbrandt 1777.56 +46.03 56.59%
WHR Cody Garbrandt 1623.83 +1.05 50.15%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Cody Garbrandt 35.0, Adrian Yanez 32.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Garbrandt 126, Adrian Yanez 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#177] Gable Steveson (3-0-0, -2796) vs. [#351][#40UFC] Elisha Ellison (5-2-0, +1188)

Last 3 Fights: Gable Steveson (3-0-0)
2026-02-19: W vs. [#250HW+] Hugo Lezama (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:50 of round 1
2025-11-23: W vs. [NA] Kevin Hein (2-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:24 of round 1
2025-09-12: W vs. [NA] Braden Peterson (2-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Elisha Ellison (2-1-0)
2025-09-27: L vs. [#39HW+] Brando Pericic (7-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1
2025-01-25: W vs. [#352HW+] Rafael Brewster (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 1
2024-10-05: W vs. [NA] Spur Roundstone (0-2-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 1:36 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gable Steveson -2796 92.56%
Elo K170 Gable Steveson 1300.94 +154.80 70.91%
Elo Modified Gable Steveson 1455.73 +305.97 85.34%
Glicko-1 Gable Steveson 1339.38 +171.20 72.82%
WHR Gable Steveson 1225.77 +48.19 56.89%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Gable Steveson 26.1, Elisha Ellison 29.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gable Steveson 142, Elisha Ellison 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#45][#28UFC] Kai Kamaka III (18-7-1, +243) vs. [#64][#36UFC] Luke Riley (13-0-0, -313)

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kamaka III (2-1-0)
2026-04-04: W vs. [#189LW] Dakota Hope (11-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2026-01-22: W vs. [#531FW] Michel Lima (19-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:48 of round 3
2025-10-25: L vs. [#41FW] Diego Brandao (32-22-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Luke Riley (3-0-0)
2026-03-21: W vs. [#189FW] Michael Aswell (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#175FW] Bogdan Grad (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2025-03-15: W vs. [#849FW] Tariel Abbasov (9-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Luke Riley -313 72.22%
Elo K170 Kai Kamaka III 1748.93 +7.43 51.07%
Elo Modified Kai Kamaka III 1799.28 +39.22 55.62%
Glicko-1 Kai Kamaka III 1821.06 +41.88 56.00%
WHR Kai Kamaka III 1708.24 +11.53 51.66%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kai Kamaka III 31.5, Luke Riley 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kai Kamaka III 98, Luke Riley 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10MW][#9MWUFC] Robert Whittaker (26-9-0, -159) vs. [#21][#14UFC] Nikita Krylov (31-11-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (1-2-0)
2025-07-26: L vs. [#15MW] Reinier de Ridder (21-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#5P4P][#7DD][#2MW] Khamzat Chimaev (15-1-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:34 of round 1
2024-06-22: W vs. [#20MW] Ikram Aliskerov (18-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nikita Krylov (1-2-0)
2026-01-24: W vs. [#30LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (20-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 3
2025-07-26: L vs. [#10LHW] Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2025-04-12: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (16-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:24 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robert Whittaker -159 58.53%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2005.44 +137.29 68.79%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2062.53 +184.32 74.29%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2144.09 +210.03 77.01%
WHR Robert Whittaker 1979.70 +213.46 77.36%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Robert Whittaker 35.5, Nikita Krylov 34.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 350, Nikita Krylov 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#11][#9UFC] Tracy Cortez (12-3-0, -108) vs. [#16][#11UFC] Cong Wang (9-1-0, -114)

Last 3 Fights: Tracy Cortez (1-2-0)
2025-11-15: L vs. [#8P4P][#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (14-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:44 of round 2
2025-06-28: W vs. [#14FLY] Viviane Araujo (14-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#7FLY] Rose Namajunas (14-8-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Cong Wang (3-0-0)
2026-02-07: W vs. [#22FLY] Eduarda Moura (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#33FLY] Ariane Lipski da Silva (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-02-08: W vs. [#38SW] Bruna Brasil (11-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cong Wang -114 50.64%
Elo K170 Tracy Cortez 1694.30 +56.50 58.06%
Elo Modified Tracy Cortez 1687.12 +31.27 54.49%
Glicko-1 Tracy Cortez 1643.17 +21.18 53.04%
WHR Tracy Cortez 1626.49 +106.73 64.89%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Tracy Cortez 32.6, Cong Wang 34.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tracy Cortez 238, Cong Wang 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#20][#17UFC] Farid Basharat (15-0-0, +106) vs. [#61][#38UFC] Ethyn Ewing (10-2-0, -127)

Last 3 Fights: Farid Basharat (3-0-0)
2026-02-07: W vs. [#32BW] Jean Matsumoto (18-2-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#36BW] Chris Gutierrez (22-7-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#176LW] Victor Hugo (26-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ethyn Ewing (3-0-0)
2026-04-04: W vs. [#114BW] Rafael Estevam (14-1-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 1:44 of round 3
2025-11-15: W vs. [#190BW] Malcolm Wellmaker (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-11-07: W vs. [#887BW] Billy Brand (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ethyn Ewing -127 53.54%
Elo K170 Farid Basharat 2014.56 +291.95 84.30%
Elo Modified Farid Basharat 1936.08 +215.12 77.53%
Glicko-1 Farid Basharat 1945.70 +167.20 72.36%
WHR Farid Basharat 1822.33 +161.00 71.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Farid Basharat 154, Ethyn Ewing 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Max Holloway
Highest Stored DD Rating: Max Holloway
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2026-7-5

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