Jul 11, 2026 | Las Vegas, United States
More than twelve years after their first meeting, [NR] Conor McGregor (22-6-0) and [#5 LW | #4 UFC] Max Holloway (27-9-0) are set to face each other again in one of the most anticipated rematches of 2026. This time, the bout will take place in the welterweight division (170 lbs), adding another intriguing element as both fighters compete above their traditional weight classes.
Their first encounter took place in August 2013 at UFC Fight Night 26, where McGregor earned a unanimous decision victory. Since then, both athletes have become UFC legends, but they enter this rematch from very different positions.
McGregor remains one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA history. His timing, precision, and devastating left hand can end a fight in an instant. However, after a lengthy period of inactivity, questions remain about his conditioning, durability, and ability to maintain a high pace over five rounds.
Holloway, on the other hand, has remained one of the UFC’s most active and consistent elite fighters. His incredible cardio, relentless pressure, high-volume boxing, and ability to make adjustments throughout a fight have made him one of the sport’s most complete competitors. Moving to welterweight may also benefit Holloway by allowing him to compete without a difficult weight cut.
Keys to Victory
Conor McGregor
- Establish control early.
- Dominate the center of the Octagon.
- Land his powerful left hand before Holloway settles into his rhythm.
Max Holloway
- Survive the dangerous opening rounds.
- Push a relentless pace.
- Attack with combinations and body shots while forcing McGregor to work continuously.
Likely Fight Scenario
McGregor is expected to come out aggressively, looking for an early finish while his power and explosiveness remain at their peak. Holloway will likely focus on movement, volume, and gradually increasing the pace.
If McGregor cannot secure a stoppage in the first two rounds, the momentum is expected to shift toward Holloway. His superior cardio and constant pressure should begin to wear McGregor down as the fight progresses.
FightMatrix Prediction
From an analytical perspective, Max Holloway deserves to be considered the favorite. His recent activity, conditioning, durability, and consistency against elite competition provide significant advantages entering this matchup.
Estimated Win Probability
- Max Holloway: 65%
- Conor McGregor: 35%
Most Likely Outcomes
- Holloway by TKO: 35%
- Holloway by Decision: 30%
- McGregor by KO/TKO: 30%
- McGregor by Decision: 5%
Final Assessment
The logical prediction is a Max Holloway victory. His pace, durability, and championship-level experience should become the deciding factors once the fight moves into the later rounds.
My prediction is that Max Holloway wins by TKO in the championship rounds, as his relentless pressure, striking volume, and superior conditioning gradually overwhelm McGregor and force a referee stoppage.
That said, writing off Conor McGregor would be a mistake. He remains one of the most explosive knockout artists in UFC history, and if he lands clean during the opening rounds, he is fully capable of ending the fight before Holloway can establish his pace. That possibility alone makes this one of the most compelling fights on the UFC 329 card.
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