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Fight Matrix
Predict UFC & MMA Fights on WahooPredict!
Predict UFC & MMA Fights on WahooPredict!

Fight Matrix Program – MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs Carano (05-16-2026)

Posted on May 10, 2026 by Jason

Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Ronda Rousey (12-2-0, -500) vs. [*] Gina Carano (7-1-0, +353)
Ronda Rousey is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronda Rousey (1-2-0)
2016-12-30: L vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1
2015-11-14: L vs. [*] Holly Holm (15-7-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:59 of round 2
2015-08-01: W vs. [NA] Bethe Correia (11-6-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gina Carano (2-1-0)
2009-08-15: L vs. [#1DD][#3P4P][#1FW] Cristiane Justino (29-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2008-10-04: W vs. [NA] Kelly Kobold-Schmitz (20-3-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2008-05-31: W vs. [NA] Kaitlin Young (12-13-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ronda Rousey -500 79.05%
Elo K170 Ronda Rousey 1651.67 +247.63 80.62%
Elo Modified Ronda Rousey 1676.59 +210.56 77.07%
Glicko-1 Ronda Rousey 1705.99 +272.46 82.75%
WHR Ronda Rousey 1668.84 +214.92 77.51%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ronda Rousey 39.3, Gina Carano 44.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronda Rousey 3424, Gina Carano 6118
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[*] Francis Ngannou (18-3-0, -1354) vs. [*] Philipe Lins (18-5-0, +720)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#18HW+] Renan Ferreira (13-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:32 of round 1
2022-01-22: W vs. [#1HW+] Ciryl Gane (13-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-03-27: W vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#27LHW] Ion Cutelaba (20-11-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#58LHW] Maxim Grishin (35-12-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [*] Ovince St. Preux (27-18-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Francis Ngannou -1354 88.41%
Elo K170 Francis Ngannou 2363.07 +551.98 96.00%
Elo Modified Francis Ngannou 2339.57 +498.10 94.62%
Glicko-1 Francis Ngannou 2491.53 +629.08 97.40%
WHR Francis Ngannou 2203.75 +441.31 92.70%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Francis Ngannou 39.7, Philipe Lins 40.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 574, Philipe Lins 798
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Francis Ngannou leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[*] Nate Diaz (21-13-0, +163) vs. [*] Mike Perry (14-8-0, -202)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (1-2-0)
2022-09-10: W vs. [*] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:52 of round 4
2021-06-12: L vs. [#9WW] Leon Edwards (22-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2019-11-02: L vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2021-04-10: L vs. [#17WW] Daniel Rodriguez (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2020-11-21: L vs. [*] Tim Means (33-17-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-06-27: W vs. [*] Mickey Gall (7-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Perry -202 63.75%
Elo K170 Nate Diaz 2046.32 +494.89 94.53%
Elo Modified Nate Diaz 2018.49 +426.09 92.07%
Glicko-1 Nate Diaz 2115.79 +464.42 93.55%
WHR Nate Diaz 1852.03 +335.74 87.35%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Nate Diaz 41.1, Mike Perry 34.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nate Diaz 1344, Mike Perry 1862
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Nate Diaz leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#15] Jason Jackson (19-6-0, +175) vs. [*] Lorenz Larkin (27-8-0, -250)

Last 3 Fights: Jason Jackson (1-2-0)
2025-06-12: L vs. [#14WW] Thad Jean (11-0-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2025-04-03: W vs. [#31WW] Andrey Koreshkov (29-6-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:21 of round 2
2024-06-22: L vs. [#12WW] Ramazan Kuramagomedov (14-0-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Lorenz Larkin (2-1-0)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#99WW] Levan Chokheli (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1
2024-06-28: W vs. [#409WW] Alan Dominguez (11-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
2023-07-29: L vs. [#31WW] Andrey Koreshkov (29-6-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lorenz Larkin -250 66.26%
Elo K170 Lorenz Larkin 2002.91 +34.39 54.93%
Elo Modified Jason Jackson 2008.79 +7.80 51.12%
Glicko-1 Lorenz Larkin 2094.82 +15.82 52.27%
WHR Jason Jackson 2000.29 +83.38 61.77%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jason Jackson 35.5, Lorenz Larkin 39.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jason Jackson 338, Lorenz Larkin 616
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jason Jackson leads 3-2
.

Lightweight (155)
[#32] Salahdine Parnasse (22-2-0, -1288) vs. [#107] Kenneth Cross (17-4-0, +683)

Last 3 Fights: Salahdine Parnasse (3-0-0)
2026-01-17: W vs. [#109LW] Marcin Held (31-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 2
2025-05-10: W vs. [#511LW] Marian Ziolkowski (25-11-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 2
2024-12-20: W vs. [#150LW] Wilson Varela (13-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kenneth Cross (3-0-0)
2025-10-25: W vs. [#273LW] Tsogookhuu Amarsanaa (11-4-0) via UD ()
2025-03-28: W vs. [#378LW] Lucas Corbage (13-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1
2024-09-27: W vs. [#223LW] Emmanuel Sanchez (24-12-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Salahdine Parnasse -1288 87.90%
Elo K170 Salahdine Parnasse 2044.18 +339.79 87.61%
Elo Modified Salahdine Parnasse 2019.70 +286.05 83.84%
Glicko-1 Salahdine Parnasse 2124.97 +371.77 89.48%
WHR Salahdine Parnasse 1975.96 +316.58 86.09%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Salahdine Parnasse 28.4, Kenneth Cross 31.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Salahdine Parnasse 119, Kenneth Cross 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[*] Junior dos Santos (23-10-0, +336) vs. [*] Robelis Despaigne (5-2-0, -480)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight and #42 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [*] Alan Belcher (19-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:39 of round 2
2023-09-08: W vs. [*] Fabricio Werdum (24-10-1) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2022-05-20: L vs. [#88HW+] Yorgan De Castro (12-7-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 0:35 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Robelis Despaigne (1-2-0)
2024-10-19: L vs. [#156LHW] Austen Lane (13-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-11: L vs. [#7HW+] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#321HW+] Josh Parisian (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robelis Despaigne -480 78.29%
Elo K170 Junior dos Santos 1785.89 +536.37 95.64%
Elo Modified Junior dos Santos 1775.06 +441.24 92.69%
Glicko-1 Junior dos Santos 1788.63 +477.22 93.98%
WHR Junior dos Santos 1679.08 +416.08 91.64%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Junior dos Santos 42.3, Robelis Despaigne 37.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 805, Robelis Despaigne 574
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#11] Muhammad Mokaev (16-0-0, -986) vs. [#73BW] Adriano Moraes (21-6-0, +593)
Muhammad Mokaev is the All-Time #30 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Muhammad Mokaev (3-0-0)
2025-11-07: W vs. [#227FLY] Gerard Burns (7-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 0:08 of round 2
2025-06-14: W vs. [#236FLY] Thomas Assis (12-5-0) via UD ()
2024-12-13: W vs. [#590FLY] Joevincent So (8-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Adriano Moraes (1-2-0)
2025-03-23: L vs. [#46BW] Yuya Wakamatsu (20-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 1
2024-11-08: W vs. [#471BW] Danny Kingad (15-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:14 of round 2
2023-05-05: L vs. [*] Demetrious Johnson (25-4-1) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muhammad Mokaev -986 86.28%
Elo K170 Muhammad Mokaev 1986.47 +253.38 81.13%
Elo Modified Muhammad Mokaev 1969.82 +201.92 76.17%
Glicko-1 Muhammad Mokaev 2027.10 +221.39 78.15%
WHR Muhammad Mokaev 1927.20 +239.00 79.83%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Muhammad Mokaev 25.8, Adriano Moraes 37.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Muhammad Mokaev 190, Adriano Moraes 419
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#179] Namo Fazil (9-1-0, -354) vs. [#573] Jake Babian (6-1-0, +265)

Last 3 Fights: Namo Fazil (3-0-0)
2025-06-14: W vs. [#248MW] Yakub Sulimanov (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 3
2024-10-18: W vs. [#1400WW] Davlat Khozhiev (6-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2024-03-09: W vs. [#1340WW] Abolfazl Mehrazaran (5-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jake Babian (3-0-0)
2025-09-20: W vs. [#876WW] Saad Ul-Hasan (9-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 2
2025-05-10: W vs. [NA] Marcus Walston (2-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:06 of round 1
2024-12-07: W vs. [NA] Jose Matuz (2-12-0) via TKO in 0:15 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Namo Fazil -354 73.99%
Elo K170 Namo Fazil 1548.31 +302.18 85.06%
Elo Modified Namo Fazil 1585.75 +287.04 83.92%
Glicko-1 Namo Fazil 1596.26 +318.91 86.24%
WHR Namo Fazil 1538.12 +317.67 86.16%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Namo Fazil 336, Jake Babian 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#228] David Mgoyan (8-1-0, -586) vs. [#193FW] Albert Morales (19-10-1, +382)

Last 3 Fights: David Mgoyan (2-1-0)
2026-01-31: W vs. [#548LW] Javier Garcia (13-7-0) via UD ()
2025-09-02: L vs. [#233FW] Tommy McMillen (10-0-0) via MD ()
2025-05-22: W vs. [#1267LW] Luciano Ramos (8-17-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Albert Morales (2-1-0)
2026-01-31: W vs. [#1236FW] Taron Grigoryan (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2025-05-31: L vs. [#87BW] Johnny Robles (10-3-0) via UD ()
2025-03-01: W vs. [#531FW] Chase Gibson (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:10 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds David Mgoyan -586 80.45%
Elo K170 Albert Morales 1539.26 +47.72 56.82%
Elo Modified Albert Morales 1585.68 +38.61 55.53%
Glicko-1 Albert Morales 1622.80 +61.34 58.74%
WHR Albert Morales 1519.85 +36.66 55.26%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: David Mgoyan 21.9, Albert Morales 35.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Mgoyan 105, Albert Morales 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: David Mgoyan leads 2-1
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[*] Jade Masson-Wong (3-2-0, +307) vs. [NA] Aline Pereira (2-2-0, -439)

Last 3 Fights: Jade Masson-Wong (1-2-0)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#27FLY] Jamey-Lyn Horth (9-3-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 2:31 of round 3
2019-05-24: L vs. [NA] Mandy Bohm (8-2-0) via SUB in 3:43 of round 3
2018-12-07: W vs. [NA] Marilyn Micallef (2-1-0) via TKO in 2:58 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Aline Pereira (2-1-0)
2025-11-14: W vs. [NA] Nejra Repp (4-3-0) via UD ()
2023-09-22: L vs. [#42BW] Cheyanne Bowers (7-3-0) via UD ()
2023-06-16: W vs. [*] Chelsea Conner (4-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Aline Pereira -439 76.82%
Elo K170 Jade Masson-Wong 1098.32 +21.47 53.08%
Elo Modified Jade Masson-Wong 1222.56 +138.95 68.99%
Glicko-1 Aline Pereira 1093.09 +6.24 50.90%
WHR Aline Pereira 1152.29 +43.29 56.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jade Masson-Wong 2289, Aline Pereira 183
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Francis Ngannou
Highest Stored DD Rating: Muhammad Mokaev
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Adriano Moraes
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2026-5-10

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