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Fight Matrix
Writer's Game PR, LLC - Public Relations Agency
Writer's Game PR, LLC - Public Relations Agency

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan (04-04-2026)

Posted on March 30, 2026 by Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#12][#11UFC] Renato Carneiro (20-7-1, +161) vs. [#39][#25UFC] Chris Duncan (15-2-0, -195)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (1-2-0)
2025-06-28: L vs. [#11LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:05 of round 1
2024-09-28: W vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (17-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chris Duncan (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#64LW] Terrance McKinney (18-8-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 2:30 of round 1
2025-08-02: W vs. [#56LW] Mateusz Rebecki (21-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2025-03-22: W vs. [#154LW] Jordan Vucenic (15-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:42 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Duncan -195 63.30%
Elo K170 Renato Carneiro 1979.61 +92.25 62.97%
Elo Modified Renato Carneiro 1965.58 +101.56 64.21%
Glicko-1 Renato Carneiro 2024.83 +110.04 65.33%
WHR Renato Carneiro 1907.27 +74.22 60.52%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Renato Carneiro 36.9, Chris Duncan 32.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 280, Chris Duncan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#6DD][#11P4P][#3][#3UFC] Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0, -103) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0, -118)
Virna Jandiroba is the All-Time #49 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Virna Jandiroba (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#5DD][#5P4P][#2SW] Mackenzie Dern (16-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#5SW] Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#9SW] Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2025-07-26: W vs. [#18SW] Amanda Ribas (12-7-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:59 of round 2
2024-11-23: L vs. [#5SW] Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#20SW] Angela Hill (18-16-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tabatha Ricci -118 51.61%
Elo K170 Virna Jandiroba 1802.27 +117.05 66.23%
Elo Modified Virna Jandiroba 1788.60 +95.14 63.36%
Glicko-1 Virna Jandiroba 1772.87 +78.33 61.08%
WHR Virna Jandiroba 1734.08 +148.28 70.13%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Virna Jandiroba 37.8, Tabatha Ricci 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Virna Jandiroba 161, Tabatha Ricci 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Virna Jandiroba leads 3-2
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#59][#27UFC] Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (8-0-0, -1509) vs. [#74][#32UFC] Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0, +809)

Last 3 Fights: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#188LHW] Raffael Cerqueira (11-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:33 of round 1
2025-08-26: W vs. [#158LHW] Alik Lorenz (7-2-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 0:30 of round 1
2024-09-26: W vs. [#191MW] Jacky Jeanne (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brendson Ribeiro (1-2-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#39LHW] Oumar Sy (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-06-07: L vs. [#15LHW] Azamat Murzakanov (16-0-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
2025-03-15: W vs. [#85LHW] Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:28 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev -1509 89.50%
Elo K170 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 1585.82 +108.68 65.15%
Elo Modified Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 1623.81 +135.49 68.57%
Glicko-1 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 1651.16 +137.51 68.82%
WHR Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 1640.86 +150.89 70.45%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 25.2, Brendson Ribeiro 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 133, Brendson Ribeiro 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#64][#39UFC] Rafael Estevam (14-0-0, -104) vs. [#107][#49UFC] Ethyn Ewing (9-2-0, -115)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Estevam (3-0-0)
2025-08-02: W vs. [#69FLY] Felipe Bunes (14-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#81FLY] Jesus Santos Aguilar (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#26FLY] Charles Johnson (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ethyn Ewing (3-0-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#405FW] Malcolm Wellmaker (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-11-07: W vs. [#848BW] Billy Brand (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 1
2025-01-25: W vs. [#426FW] Santos Verdinez (8-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ethyn Ewing -115 51.20%
Elo K170 Rafael Estevam 1821.79 +233.96 79.36%
Elo Modified Rafael Estevam 1816.94 +216.14 77.63%
Glicko-1 Rafael Estevam 1867.44 +247.51 80.61%
WHR Rafael Estevam 1764.99 +207.83 76.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Estevam 245, Ethyn Ewing 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#252] Tommy McMillen (9-0-0, -969) vs. [*] Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0, +636)

Last 3 Fights: Tommy McMillen (3-0-0)
2025-09-02: W vs. [#223LW] David Mgoyan (8-1-0) via MD ()
2025-04-26: W vs. [NA] Dumar Roa (22-27-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:58 of round 1
2024-12-14: W vs. [*] Genier Penagos (8-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Manolo Zecchini (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#67FW] Morgan Charriere (21-12-1) via KO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1
2022-10-08: W vs. [#672LW] Aboubakar Tounkara (12-7-0) via KO (Knee) in 0:36 of round 2
2022-05-14: W vs. [*] Souksavanh Khampasath (13-15-1) via KO in 3:20 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tommy McMillen -969 86.96%
Elo K170 Tommy McMillen 1516.75 +181.78 74.01%
Elo Modified Tommy McMillen 1537.61 +150.41 70.39%
Glicko-1 Tommy McMillen 1514.48 +127.56 67.58%
WHR Tommy McMillen 1482.69 +125.35 67.29%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Tommy McMillen 28.3, Manolo Zecchini 29.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tommy McMillen 214, Manolo Zecchini 945
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#61][#32UFC] Robert Ruchala (11-2-0, +304) vs. [#102] Jose Mauro Delano (16-3-0, -400)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Ruchala (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#32FW] William Gomis (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#169LW] Kacper Formela (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:44 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#77FW] Patryk Kaczmarczyk (13-3-0) via KO (Front Kick to the Body) in 0:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jose Mauro Delano (3-0-0)
2025-08-19: W vs. [#406FW] Manuel Exposito (13-4-0) via UD ()
2025-02-07: W vs. [#915FW] Abumuslim Alikhanov (7-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:46 of round 1
2024-03-23: W vs. [#509FW] Alan Villalba (22-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jose Mauro Delano -400 76.37%
Elo K170 Jose Mauro Delano 1739.17 +0.96 50.14%
Elo Modified Jose Mauro Delano 1741.26 +8.69 51.25%
Glicko-1 Jose Mauro Delano 1801.30 +38.16 55.47%
WHR Robert Ruchala 1704.84 +7.11 51.02%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Robert Ruchala 27.9, Jose Mauro Delano 29.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Ruchala 210, Jose Mauro Delano 228
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#70][#26UFC] Thomas Petersen (11-4-0, -104) vs. [#137][#36UFC] Guilherme Pat (6-0-0, -118)

Last 3 Fights: Thomas Petersen (1-2-0)
2025-10-11: L vs. [#36HW+] Vitor Petrino (14-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 3
2025-05-03: W vs. [#84HW+] Dontale Mayes (11-10-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)
2025-02-01: L vs. [#26HW+] Shamil Gaziev (14-2-0) via TKO (Punch) in 3:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Guilherme Pat (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#272HW+] Allen Frye (6-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-30: W vs. [*] Mauricio Boni Cogo Queiro (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:13 of round 3
2023-08-26: W vs. [NA] Leandro Moreira de Olivei (1-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Guilherme Pat -118 51.49%
Elo K170 Thomas Petersen 1448.03 +12.61 51.81%
Elo Modified Guilherme Pat 1504.37 +4.48 50.64%
Glicko-1 Guilherme Pat 1463.50 +8.50 51.22%
WHR Thomas Petersen 1445.98 +57.78 58.24%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Thomas Petersen 31.0, Guilherme Pat 31.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thomas Petersen 175, Guilherme Pat 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#141][#47UFC] Alessandro Costa (14-5-0, -396) vs. [#418][#56UFC] Stewart Nicoll (8-2-0, +303)

Last 3 Fights: Alessandro Costa (1-2-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#46FLY] Alden Coria (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:47 of round 3
2024-05-04: W vs. [#121FLY] Kevin Borjas (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 2
2023-11-11: L vs. [#12FLY] Steve Erceg (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Stewart Nicoll (1-2-0)
2025-10-11: L vs. [#89FLY] Lucas Rocha (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#81FLY] Jesus Santos Aguilar (12-4-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#400FLY] Issei Kitano (8-2-0) via TKO in 4:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alessandro Costa -396 76.29%
Elo K170 Alessandro Costa 1482.90 +113.10 65.72%
Elo Modified Alessandro Costa 1503.04 +99.21 63.90%
Glicko-1 Alessandro Costa 1515.66 +104.51 64.60%
WHR Alessandro Costa 1480.72 +147.54 70.04%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alessandro Costa 30.2, Stewart Nicoll 31.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alessandro Costa 203, Stewart Nicoll 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Darrius Flowers (12-8-1, +182) vs. [*] Lando Vannata (12-7-2, -227)

Last 3 Fights: Darrius Flowers (0-3-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#171LW] Evan Elder (10-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:46 of round 2
2024-02-10: L vs. [#101LW] Michael Johnson (24-20-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#40WW] Jake Matthews (22-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Lando Vannata (1-2-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#106LW] Daniel Zellhuber (15-4-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-04-23: L vs. [#21BW] Charles Jourdain (17-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:32 of round 1
2021-05-15: W vs. [*] Mike Grundy (12-4-0) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lando Vannata -227 66.18%
Elo K170 Lando Vannata 1454.78 +141.44 69.30%
Elo Modified Lando Vannata 1455.88 +106.71 64.89%
Glicko-1 Lando Vannata 1469.64 +128.10 67.64%
WHR Lando Vannata 1399.25 +102.06 64.28%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Darrius Flowers 31.6, Lando Vannata 34.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Darrius Flowers 630, Lando Vannata 1085
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#71][#28UFC] Alice Pereira (6-1-0, -119) vs. [#87][#31UFC] Hailey Cowan (7-4-0, -101)

Last 3 Fights: Alice Pereira (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#58BW] Montserrat Rendon (7-2-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#196SW] Samara Santos (12-10-1) via UD ()
2024-08-31: W vs. [#129BW] Karla Thais (3-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Hailey Cowan (1-2-0)
2025-04-12: L vs. [#22BW] Nora Cornolle (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:52 of round 2
2023-04-29: L vs. [#18FLY] Jamey-Lyn Horth (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-16: W vs. [#41BW] Claudia Leite (11-3-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alice Pereira -119 51.95%
Elo K170 Alice Pereira 1236.80 +17.05 52.45%
Elo Modified Alice Pereira 1310.96 +78.49 61.11%
Glicko-1 Alice Pereira 1304.95 +142.95 69.48%
WHR Alice Pereira 1228.73 +69.47 59.87%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alice Pereira 20.3, Hailey Cowan 34.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alice Pereira 203, Hailey Cowan 357
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#80][#47UFC] Azamat Bekoev (20-4-0, -560) vs. [#200][#67UFC] Tresean Gore (5-4-0, +393)

Last 3 Fights: Azamat Bekoev (2-1-0)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#52MW] Yousri Belgaroui (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2025-05-03: W vs. [#133MW] Ryan Loder (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:44 of round 1
2025-01-18: W vs. [#113MW] Zachary Reese (10-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tresean Gore (1-2-0)
2025-08-02: L vs. [#72MW] Rodolfo Vieira (11-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-04-12: L vs. [#85MW] Marco Tulio (14-2-0) via TKO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 2
2024-11-09: W vs. [#484MW] Antonio Trocoli (13-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:23 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Azamat Bekoev -560 80.70%
Elo K170 Azamat Bekoev 1668.42 +265.61 82.18%
Elo Modified Azamat Bekoev 1685.67 +232.26 79.20%
Glicko-1 Azamat Bekoev 1677.84 +225.29 78.53%
WHR Azamat Bekoev 1667.50 +282.09 83.54%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Azamat Bekoev 30.2, Tresean Gore 31.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Azamat Bekoev 168, Tresean Gore 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#39][#20UFC] Dione Barbosa (8-4-0, -147) vs. [*] Melissa Gatto (9-2-2, +121)

Last 3 Fights: Dione Barbosa (1-2-0)
2025-08-16: L vs. [#13FLY] Karine Silva (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#126FLY] Diana Belbita (15-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:13 of round 1
2024-07-20: L vs. [#14FLY] Miranda Maverick (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Melissa Gatto (1-2-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#73BW] Tamires Vidal (7-5-0) via TKO (Punch to the Body) in 0:37 of round 3
2023-07-01: L vs. [#26FLY] Ariane Lipski da Silva (18-11-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#11FLY] Tracy Cortez (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dione Barbosa -147 56.80%
Elo K170 Melissa Gatto 1439.92 +89.54 62.61%
Elo Modified Melissa Gatto 1507.59 +131.78 68.11%
Glicko-1 Melissa Gatto 1524.70 +161.05 71.65%
WHR Melissa Gatto 1504.97 +129.29 67.79%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dione Barbosa 33.9, Melissa Gatto 29.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dione Barbosa 231, Melissa Gatto 686
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Renato Carneiro
Highest Stored DD Rating: Virna Jandiroba
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Renato Carneiro vs. Chris Duncan
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2026-3-29

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