Small tweaks on the “safe” bet amounts. I didn’t really think that one through.
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fight amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
[No qualifying fights]
2026 Hit Rate: 0 of 1 (0.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 49.5%, WHR: 65.4% – Total Bet: $67 – Profit/Loss: -$67.00
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one bet, I’ll bend a little on this percentage and mark the fight(s).
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
2026 Hit Rate: 1 of 1 (100.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 43.4%, WHR: 65.1% – Total Bet: $114 – Profit/Loss: +$149.07
Other things to consider….
- WHR referenced in this post is fighter age-adjusted using a formula driven by previous results. This is not “vanilla” WHR.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the “juice”.
- Our odds are composite odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- FM Agree – If YES, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog pick is indeed the underdog and the safe pick is the favorite.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Per-fight bet amounts are linearly scaled per fight from $5 to $200 for dog bets and $50 to $200 for safe bets.
- “The Underdog”
- Per-fight bet amount is based on the Win% difference between WHR and Odds. Higher difference = Higher bet.
- Parlay bet amount is the average of the fight bet amounts, rounded to the nearest dollar.
- “The Safe”, it is based on the difference between WHR Win% and 75%. Higher difference = Higher bet.
- Per-fight bet amount is based on the Win% difference between WHR and 75%. Higher difference = Higher bet.
- Parlay bet amount is the minimum of the fight bet amounts, rounded to the nearest dollar.
- “The Underdog”
- If a fight is scrapped, I will adjust the profit if the parlay cashes.