Final stats from the WHR betting posts for 2025…
- We made 44 weekly WHR posts in 2025.
- The “Underdog” parlays turned a profit of $1,524.01, hitting on 11 of 39.
- The “Safe” parlays turned a profit of $394.12, hitting on 24 of 35.
- Expectations were that we’d hit at a higher rate, especially on the dogs (expected 44.7% vs. 28.2%).
I’d have to analyze, but it feels like there are two areas for potential improvement:
- Improve hit rate – Stricter guidelines on past fighter experience and/or eliminating some or all of the regional promotions.
- Increase profit – Scaling the bet amount based on the perceived certainty of beating the odds.
We can never objectively beat the gamblers on properly handling fighters with previous non-MMA combat experience. This got us a couple of times in the past… Any ideas for handling this objectively?
The series will return either this week or next, assuming there are qualifying bets!
I don’t think it would be wise to scale the bet amount based on the certainty of the outcome. Kelly staking only works when you are certain that you are beating the odds by that amount.
eg. blackjack card counting we know what the player’s edge is at different counts and can scale bets accordingly.
I think with sports betting it would be best to say “we think these bets are beating the available odds, but are unsure exactly by how much. so we are going to assume that they are all of similar value and chance of winning and are going to do flat staking of 2% of our bankroll”
I also wouldn’t say that the dog bets under performed. 28% is well within the normal range of expected outcomes over 44 bets with a 45% win expectation. I also think that 45% sounds ridiculously ambitious for parlays that are likely paying out at +400 or more.
Finally because of the high odds on parlays I don’t think we will ever be able to get a sample size big enough to be sure there is something going on here that is more than luck, I think it would be best if you went back and found the fights where the WHR beat the odds by x% and totalled the profit / loss up for each %. That will give you a much bigger sample size, at a less volatile payout rate, which will dramatically increase certainty of the system.