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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura (12-07-2024)

Posted on December 2, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0, -270) vs. [#24BW] Kai Asakura (21-4-0, +218)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#8FLY] Steve Erceg (12-3-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#7DD] Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Kai Asakura (2-1-0)
2023-12-31: W vs. [#74FW] Juan Archuleta (29-7-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 3:20 of round 2
2023-05-06: W vs. [#83BW] Yuki Motoya (36-12-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:25 of round 3
2021-12-31: L vs. [#12FLY] Hiromasa Ougikubo (27-8-2) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexandre Pantoja -270 69.88%
Elo K170 Alexandre Pantoja 2142.99 +112.56 65.66%
Elo Modified Alexandre Pantoja 2052.29 +81.53 61.52%
Glicko-1 Alexandre Pantoja 2109.18 +81.67 61.54%
WHR Alexandre Pantoja 1985.39 +107.26 64.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 217, Kai Asakura 342
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#5] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0, -378) vs. [#8] Ian Garry (15-0-0, +287)
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the All-Time #31 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Ian Garry is the All-Time #45 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Shavkat Rakhmonov (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#19WW] Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:56 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#12WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-06-25: W vs. [#32WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:58 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#17WW] Michael Page (22-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#12WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#32WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shavkat Rakhmonov -378 75.37%
Elo K170 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2224.04 +75.57 60.71%
Elo Modified Shavkat Rakhmonov 2181.75 +101.44 64.20%
Glicko-1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2296.22 +192.57 75.19%
WHR Shavkat Rakhmonov 2181.58 +211.63 77.18%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shavkat Rakhmonov 357, Ian Garry 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[*] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0, -324) vs. [#4] Alexander Volkov (38-10-0, +253)
Ciryl Gane is the All-Time #20 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #27 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#7HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 2
2023-03-04: L vs. [#1HW+/#8P4P] Jon Jones (28-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:04 of round 1
2022-09-03: W vs. [#16HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (3-0-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#6HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#16HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-8-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexander Romanov (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ciryl Gane -324 72.95%
Elo K170 Ciryl Gane 2135.11 +32.94 54.73%
Elo Modified Ciryl Gane 2129.33 +21.62 53.11%
Glicko-1 Ciryl Gane 2218.49 +14.14 52.03%
WHR Alexander Volkov 2062.31 +0.80 50.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ciryl Gane 462, Alexander Volkov 168
Previous Match-up Record: Ciryl Gane leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ciryl Gane leads 3-2
.

Featherweight (145)
[#19] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0, -608) vs. [*] Kron Gracie (5-2-0, +420)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#9FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#21FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#1FW/#1DD/#3P4P] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kron Gracie (1-2-0)
2023-05-06: L vs. [#29BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#38FW] Cub Swanson (30-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#36FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bryce Mitchell -608 81.70%
Elo K170 Bryce Mitchell 1850.50 +422.98 91.95%
Elo Modified Bryce Mitchell 1842.00 +315.61 86.02%
Glicko-1 Bryce Mitchell 1832.33 +311.77 85.75%
WHR Bryce Mitchell 1775.03 +327.07 86.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryce Mitchell 357, Kron Gracie 581
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#39] Nate Landwehr (18-5-0, -143) vs. [#59] Doo Ho Choi (15-4-1, +116)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Landwehr (2-1-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#145FW] Jamall Emmers (20-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 1
2023-06-10: L vs. [#21FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-25: W vs. [#563FW] Austin Lingo (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:11 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Doo Ho Choi (1-1-1)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#78FW] Bill Algeo (18-9-0) via TKO (Submission to Punch) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-02-04: D vs. [#42FW] Kyle Nelson (16-6-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-12-21: L vs. [#29BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nate Landwehr -143 55.96%
Elo K170 Nate Landwehr 1786.73 +128.87 67.74%
Elo Modified Nate Landwehr 1788.28 +115.36 66.02%
Glicko-1 Nate Landwehr 1831.83 +132.16 68.15%
WHR Nate Landwehr 1745.00 +58.14 58.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nate Landwehr 252, Doo Ho Choi 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#12] Dominick Reyes (13-4-0, -336) vs. [#15] Anthony Smith (38-20-0, +258)
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #32 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (1-2-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#22LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
2022-11-12: L vs. [#18LHW] Ryan Spann (22-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1
2021-05-01: L vs. [#3LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:29 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#12MW] Roman Dolidze (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#30LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 1
2023-12-09: L vs. [#8LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dominick Reyes -336 73.39%
Elo K170 Dominick Reyes 1826.82 +68.02 59.67%
Elo Modified Dominick Reyes 1814.91 +65.54 59.32%
Glicko-1 Dominick Reyes 1862.07 +42.84 56.14%
WHR Dominick Reyes 1769.83 +44.28 56.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dominick Reyes 182, Anthony Smith 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Smith leads 3-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#18] Vicente Luque (22-10-1, +145) vs. [#60] Themba Gorimbo (14-4-0, -176)
Vicente Luque is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (1-2-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#9WW] Joaquin Buckley (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-08-12: W vs. [#24WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2022-08-06: L vs. [#12WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Themba Gorimbo (3-0-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#72WW] Niko Price (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#193WW] Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#871WW] Pete Rodriguez (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:32 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Themba Gorimbo -176 60.97%
Elo K170 Vicente Luque 1925.51 +238.64 79.80%
Elo Modified Vicente Luque 1905.43 +193.67 75.30%
Glicko-1 Vicente Luque 1943.24 +231.77 79.15%
WHR Vicente Luque 1792.77 +181.44 73.97%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 252, Themba Gorimbo 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vicente Luque leads 2-1
.

Featherweight (145)
[#3] Aljamain Sterling (24-4-0, +218) vs. [#4] Movsar Evloev (18-0-0, -271)

Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#16FW] Calvin Kattar (23-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
2023-05-06: W vs. [#5BW] Henry Cejudo (16-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#7FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-06-04: W vs. [#21FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Movsar Evloev -271 69.90%
Elo K170 Aljamain Sterling 2280.01 +144.41 69.66%
Elo Modified Aljamain Sterling 2154.89 +77.68 60.99%
Glicko-1 Aljamain Sterling 2167.38 +68.36 59.71%
WHR Movsar Evloev 2030.65 +27.84 54.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 238, Movsar Evloev 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#22] Randy Brown (19-5-0, +178) vs. [#75] Bryan Battle (11-2-0, -218)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (3-0-0)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#46WW] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (25-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#39WW] Muslim Salikhov (21-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 1
2023-06-24: W vs. [#152WW] Wellington Turman (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bryan Battle (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2024-09-28: W vs. [#151WW] Kevin Jousset (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 2
2024-03-16: NC vs. [#125WW] Ange Loosa (10-4-0)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#362WW] A.J. Fletcher (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bryan Battle -218 65.58%
Elo K170 Randy Brown 2020.86 +254.67 81.25%
Elo Modified Randy Brown 1967.80 +194.01 75.34%
Glicko-1 Randy Brown 2018.49 +172.68 72.99%
WHR Randy Brown 1843.57 +132.51 68.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 189, Bryan Battle 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (195)
[#29MW] Chris Weidman (16-7-0, -108) vs. [#56MW] Eryk Anders (16-8-0, -113)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #22 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#49MW] Bruno Silva (23-12-0) via TUD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#39MW] Brad Tavares (20-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-24: L vs. [*] Uriah Hall (17-11-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 0:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (2-1-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#205MW] Jamie Pickett (13-11-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#51MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#71MW] Kyle Daukaus (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Eryk Anders -113 50.53%
Elo K170 Chris Weidman 1809.55 +245.64 80.44%
Elo Modified Chris Weidman 1815.53 +190.56 74.97%
Glicko-1 Chris Weidman 1852.62 +196.24 75.58%
WHR Chris Weidman 1652.97 +89.69 62.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 252, Eryk Anders 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Weidman leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#27] Cody Durden (17-6-1, +130) vs. [#32] Joshua Van (11-2-0, -160)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Durden (1-2-0)
2024-09-07: W vs. [*] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 0:29 of round 2
2024-07-20: L vs. [#19FLY] Bruno Silva (14-6-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2
2023-12-16: L vs. [#10FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (16-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Van (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#140FLY] Edgar Chairez (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#15FLY] Charles Johnson (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2024-01-13: W vs. [#80FLY] Felipe Bunes (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joshua Van -160 58.59%
Elo K170 Joshua Van 1627.01 +3.08 50.44%
Elo Modified Cody Durden 1614.35 +10.07 51.45%
Glicko-1 Joshua Van 1659.89 +20.11 52.89%
WHR Cody Durden 1601.41 +114.64 65.92%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Durden 91, Joshua Van 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cody Durden leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#26] Michael Chiesa (17-7-0, +115) vs. [#34] Max Griffin (20-10-0, -139)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chiesa (1-2-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#111WW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:44 of round 1
2023-07-29: L vs. [#17MW] Kevin Holland (26-12-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2021-11-20: L vs. [#6WW] Sean Brady (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Max Griffin (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#63WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#16WW] Michael Morales (17-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-29: W vs. [#65WW] Tim Means (33-17-1) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Max Griffin -139 55.56%
Elo K170 Michael Chiesa 1896.83 +93.91 63.20%
Elo Modified Michael Chiesa 1880.99 +136.41 68.68%
Glicko-1 Michael Chiesa 1943.21 +159.17 71.43%
WHR Michael Chiesa 1755.16 +89.50 62.60%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chiesa 126, Max Griffin 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Chiesa leads 2-1
.

Lightweight (155)
[#109] Chase Hooper (14-3-1, -1020) vs. [#124] Clay Guida (38-24-0, +616)
Clay Guida is the All-Time #33 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (3-0-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#201LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-4-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 3:00 of round 2
2023-11-18: W vs. [#240LW] Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:58 of round 1
2023-05-20: W vs. [#293LW] Nick Fiore (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Clay Guida (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#85LW] Joaquim Silva (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#81LW] Rafa Garcia (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [*] Scott Holtzman (14-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chase Hooper -1020 86.70%
Elo K170 Chase Hooper 1648.79 +103.12 64.42%
Elo Modified Chase Hooper 1669.00 +139.52 69.07%
Glicko-1 Chase Hooper 1733.30 +177.35 73.51%
WHR Chase Hooper 1691.77 +157.27 71.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chase Hooper 210, Clay Guida 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#56] Kennedy Nzechukwu (13-5-0, -544) vs. [#120] Lukasz Brzeski (9-5-1, +381)

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (1-2-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#123HW+] Chris Barnett (23-9-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:27 of round 1
2024-03-16: L vs. [#36LHW] Ovince St. Preux (27-18-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#22LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Lukasz Brzeski (1-2-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#55HW+] Michael Parkin (10-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 1
2024-04-06: W vs. [#79HW+] Valter Walker (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#46HW+] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kennedy Nzechukwu -544 80.24%
Elo K170 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1593.22 +186.70 74.55%
Elo Modified Kennedy Nzechukwu 1683.08 +219.38 77.95%
Glicko-1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1730.76 +278.08 83.22%
WHR Kennedy Nzechukwu 1643.02 +249.51 80.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu 42, Lukasz Brzeski 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Ciryl Gane
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexandre Pantoja
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2024-12-2

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