This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Two more changes…

1. Scrapping the “smart” option.  There are too many things to consider outside of what we can track with ratings and metrics (which are apparently not smart enough!)
2. The “safe” option will only include betting favorites.  Really, for the same reason as above.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• No maximum fighter amount.
• After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?

Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 7 (14.3%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 11.0%, WHR: 27.9% – Bankroll: -$435.00

“The Safe” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed are all betting favorites.
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least one fighter, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
• Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

Historical Hit Rate: 5 of 7 (71.4%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 43.3%, WHR: 61.6% – Bankroll: $492.50

Other things to consider….

• Large age differences will be factored into the pick decision-making process (manually, for now).  Specifics TBD.
• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
• If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.
• Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.