Another good week for the “safe” bets, another bad one for the others.
As touched upon in the last post, bets like Tim Means and Karolina K were not wise picks due to their advanced ages (from a professional fighting standpoint). Through some analysis, I’ve discovered that the prime fighting age (by win%) is somewhere around 23. Furthermore, Karolina (38) was 16 years older than her opponent. Historically, a 22 year old has beaten a 38 year old, more than 75% of the time. In the case of betting underdogs especially, I will be factoring this in at some degree. Specifics TBD.
Therefore, I’m going to consider ages when deciding on picks going forward. I am working on an automated method for this, but for now, it will be manual.
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Now for the options…
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 6 (16.7%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 12.3%, WHR: 30.5% – Bankroll: -$335.00
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one fighter, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
[No picks this week]
Historical Hit Rate: 5 of 7 (71.4%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 43.3%, WHR: 61.6% – Bankroll: $492.50
“The Smart” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have the highest difference between Adjusted WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
- I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it seems logical.
- I’m going to aim for WHR favorites with >20% win difference and a max of 3 fighters.
Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 6 (0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 16.6%, WHR: 43.2% – Bankroll: -$600.00
Other things to consider….
- Large age differences will be factored into the pick decision-making process (manually, for now). Specifics TBD.
- Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default). Read the FAQ for more info.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.