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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg (05-04-2024)

Posted on April 29, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0, -253) vs. [#14] Steve Erceg (12-1-0, +201)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #9 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#7DD] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#10FLY] Alex Perez (25-8-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-11-11: W vs. [#75FLY] Alessandro Costa (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexandre Pantoja -253 68.32%
Elo K170 Alexandre Pantoja 2123.73 +359.15 88.77%
Elo Modified Alexandre Pantoja 2042.85 +292.38 84.33%
Glicko-1 Alexandre Pantoja 2089.73 +313.03 85.84%
WHR Alexandre Pantoja 2001.52 +287.60 83.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 140, Steve Erceg 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[*] Jose Aldo (31-8-0, +109) vs. [#12] Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0, -134)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #32 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (2-1-0)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#2BW/#9DD/#8P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (20-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#14BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Martinez (3-0-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#60BW] Adrian Yanez (16-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:26 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#21BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-15: W vs. [#32FW] Cub Swanson (29-13-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jonathan Martinez -134 54.47%
Elo K170 Jose Aldo 2024.35 +34.67 54.97%
Elo Modified Jose Aldo 2047.09 +79.84 61.29%
Glicko-1 Jose Aldo 2078.63 +54.67 57.80%
WHR Jose Aldo 1934.46 +63.60 59.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 623, Jonathan Martinez 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Anthony Smith (37-19-0, +356) vs. [#28] Vitor Petrino (11-0-0, -491)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#10LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-26: W vs. [#25LHW] Ryan Spann (21-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#56LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#43LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Vitor Petrino -491 79.11%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1792.60 +12.33 51.77%
Elo Modified Vitor Petrino 1813.82 +61.88 58.81%
Glicko-1 Vitor Petrino 1828.30 +23.22 53.34%
WHR Vitor Petrino 1842.17 +179.93 73.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 147, Vitor Petrino 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#19] Michel Pereira (31-11-0, -389) vs. [#79] Ihor Potieria (25-5-0, +309)

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#45MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-10-14: W vs. [#66MW] Andre Petroski (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
2022-05-21: W vs. [#31WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ihor Potieria (1-2-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#112MW] Robert Bryczek (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#65LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2023-05-13: L vs. [#34LHW] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michel Pereira -389 76.49%
Elo K170 Michel Pereira 1994.17 +419.54 91.79%
Elo Modified Michel Pereira 1976.45 +389.82 90.42%
Glicko-1 Michel Pereira 2017.34 +394.25 90.63%
WHR Michel Pereira 1834.85 +298.75 84.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 56, Ihor Potieria 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#18] Paul Craig (17-7-1, +333) vs. [#26] Caio Borralho (15-1-0, -450)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#9MW] Brendan Allen (24-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#21MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 2
2023-01-21: L vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Caio Borralho (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#68MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#45MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:49 of round 2
2022-10-22: W vs. [#44MW] Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Caio Borralho -450 77.99%
Elo K170 Caio Borralho 1947.40 +157.75 71.26%
Elo Modified Caio Borralho 1966.29 +159.19 71.43%
Glicko-1 Caio Borralho 1979.25 +121.55 66.81%
WHR Caio Borralho 1906.33 +141.35 69.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 168, Caio Borralho 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#26] Joanderson Brito (16-3-1, -166) vs. [#54] Jack Shore (17-1-0, +136)

Last 3 Fights: Joanderson Brito (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#65FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-6-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:54 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#464FW] Westin Wilson (16-9-0) via TKO in 2:54 of round 1
2022-10-15: W vs. [#209FW] Lucas Alexander (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jack Shore (2-1-0)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#390LW] Makwan Amirkhani (17-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 2
2022-07-16: L vs. [#31BW] Ricky Simon (21-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:28 of round 2
2022-03-19: W vs. [#69BW] Timur Valiev (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joanderson Brito -166 59.56%
Elo K170 Joanderson Brito 1867.83 +22.02 53.17%
Elo Modified Joanderson Brito 1881.88 +65.62 59.33%
Glicko-1 Joanderson Brito 1934.80 +105.95 64.79%
WHR Joanderson Brito 1834.27 +155.65 71.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanderson Brito 168, Jack Shore 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#15] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7-0, +259) vs. [#23] Iasmin Lucindo (15-5-0, -333)

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#114SW] Diana Belbita (15-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#34SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (2-1-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#62SW] Polyana Viana (13-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-04-22: W vs. [#123FLY] Brogan Walker (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-13: L vs. [#25SW] Yazmin Jauregui (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Iasmin Lucindo -333 73.40%
Elo K170 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1561.75 +73.68 60.45%
Elo Modified Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1550.18 +37.62 55.39%
Glicko-1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1511.11 +8.62 51.24%
WHR Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1452.17 +38.27 55.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 210, Iasmin Lucindo 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#51] Elves Brener (16-3-0, +196) vs. [#69WW] Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-2, -245)

Last 3 Fights: Elves Brener (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#165LW] Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:01 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#111LW] Guram Kutateladze (12-4-0) via TKO in 3:17 of round 3
2023-02-11: W vs. [#181LW] Zubaira Tukhugov (20-6-1) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Myktybek Orolbai (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#37WW] Uros Medic (10-2-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:12 of round 2
2023-10-27: W vs. [#417WW] Hayward Charles (18-15-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:41 of round 2
2023-08-04: W vs. [#671WW] Glaucio Eliziario (10-8-0) via TKO in 1:33 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Myktybek Orolbai -245 67.76%
Elo K170 Elves Brener 1740.64 +93.82 63.18%
Elo Modified Elves Brener 1739.77 +71.02 60.08%
Glicko-1 Elves Brener 1800.90 +71.67 60.17%
WHR Elves Brener 1740.04 +58.60 58.35%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Elves Brener 182, Myktybek Orolbai 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#97] William Gomis (13-2-0, +112) vs. [#122] Jean Silva (12-2-0, -136)

Last 3 Fights: William Gomis (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#309FW] Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 2:20 of round 3
2023-04-22: W vs. [#383FW] Francis Marshall (7-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#162FW] Jarno Errens (14-5-1) via MD (29-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#464FW] Westin Wilson (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1
2023-09-05: W vs. [#255FW] Kevin Vallejos (13-1-0) via UD ()
2023-03-25: W vs. [#741FW] Shahin Najafi (11-11-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 2:15 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jean Silva -136 54.99%
Elo K170 William Gomis 1719.08 +88.35 62.45%
Elo Modified Jean Silva 1678.73 +30.83 54.42%
Glicko-1 Jean Silva 1709.42 +51.33 57.33%
WHR Jean Silva 1690.12 +88.47 62.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: William Gomis 245, Jean Silva 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#35] Drakkar Klose (14-2-1, -187) vs. [#79] Joaquim Silva (13-4-0, +153)

Last 3 Fights: Drakkar Klose (3-0-0)
2023-12-02: W vs. [#108LW] Joe Solecki (13-4-0) via KO (Slam) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-07-30: W vs. [#47LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-16: W vs. [#362WW] Brandon Jenkins (17-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Joaquim Silva (2-1-0)
2023-12-02: W vs. [#107LW] Clay Guida (38-24-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:25 of round 3
2022-10-01: W vs. [#109WW] Jesse Ronson (28-12-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:08 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Drakkar Klose -187 62.24%
Elo K170 Drakkar Klose 1901.94 +204.86 76.48%
Elo Modified Drakkar Klose 1884.84 +198.53 75.82%
Glicko-1 Drakkar Klose 1924.76 +251.91 81.00%
WHR Drakkar Klose 1845.32 +174.53 73.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drakkar Klose 154, Joaquim Silva 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#124] Jamie Mullarkey (17-7-0, +125) vs. [#227] Mauricio Ruffy (9-1-0, -144)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Mullarkey (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#46LW] Nasrat Haqparast (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 1
2023-09-09: W vs. [#292LW] John Makdessi (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#33FW] Muhammadjon Naimov (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (3-0-0)
2023-10-03: W vs. [#185WW] Raimond Magomedaliev (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 3
2023-05-26: W vs. [#306WW] Ronys Torres (43-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
2023-05-26: W vs. [#1039LW] Corneliu Lascar Rotaru (12-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mauricio Ruffy -144 57.04%
Elo K170 Mauricio Ruffy 1589.29 +7.57 51.09%
Elo Modified Mauricio Ruffy 1610.74 +53.40 57.62%
Glicko-1 Mauricio Ruffy 1670.11 +126.21 67.40%
WHR Mauricio Ruffy 1694.89 +160.15 71.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamie Mullarkey 147, Mauricio Ruffy 214
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#48] Dione Barbosa (6-2-0, -217) vs. [#93] Ernesta Kareckaite (5-0-1, +175)

Last 3 Fights: Dione Barbosa (3-0-0)
2023-09-05: W vs. [#131FLY] Rainn Guerrero (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:35 of round 1
2023-02-10: W vs. [#136BW] Jessica Middleton (5-7-0) via UD ()
2022-12-09: W vs. [NA] Mariana Poltronieri Picco (2-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Ernesta Kareckaite (3-0-0)
2023-09-26: W vs. [#172FLY] Carli Judice (3-1-0) via SD ()
2023-01-22: W vs. [*] Laetitia Blot (4-1-1) via SD ()
2022-08-28: W vs. [#43BW] Kate Bacik (4-1-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dione Barbosa -217 65.30%
Elo K170 Ernesta Kareckaite 1347.90 +54.05 57.72%
Elo Modified Dione Barbosa 1365.03 +95.75 63.44%
Glicko-1 Dione Barbosa 1305.38 +119.70 66.57%
WHR Dione Barbosa 1316.22 +122.92 66.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dione Barbosa 242, Ernesta Kareckaite 221
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#91] Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0, -458) vs. [*] Vinc Pichel (14-3-0, +334)

Last 3 Fights: Ismael Bonfim (2-1-0)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#17LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-2-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [#155LW] Terrance McKinney (15-6-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 2:17 of round 2
2022-09-06: W vs. [#139LW] Nariman Abbasov (29-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vinc Pichel (2-1-0)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#93LW] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-21: W vs. [#150LW] Austin Hubbard (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-15: W vs. [#60LW] Jim Miller (37-18-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ismael Bonfim -458 78.08%
Elo K170 Ismael Bonfim 1780.02 +24.70 53.55%
Elo Modified Ismael Bonfim 1801.34 +61.62 58.78%
Glicko-1 Ismael Bonfim 1835.92 +91.60 62.89%
WHR Ismael Bonfim 1801.17 +145.89 69.84%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ismael Bonfim 308, Vinc Pichel 756
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#75] Alessandro Costa (13-4-0, -142) vs. [#102] Kevin Borjas (9-2-0, +115)

Last 3 Fights: Alessandro Costa (1-2-0)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#14FLY] Steve Erceg (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-17: W vs. [#95FLY] Jimmy Flick (17-7-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 1:03 of round 2
2022-12-17: L vs. [#4FLY] Amir Albazi (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Borjas (2-1-0)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#19FLY] Joshua Van (10-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#121FLY] Victor Dias (11-3-0) via UD ()
2022-09-25: W vs. [#474BW] Sebastiao da Silva Calixt (11-5-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:02 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alessandro Costa -142 55.78%
Elo K170 Alessandro Costa 1550.61 +103.97 64.53%
Elo Modified Alessandro Costa 1546.60 +80.06 61.32%
Glicko-1 Alessandro Costa 1569.08 +69.58 59.88%
WHR Alessandro Costa 1580.38 +108.42 65.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alessandro Costa 175, Kevin Borjas 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alexandre Pantoja
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexandre Pantoja
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2024-4-28

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