In every MMA match, there are favorites, and there are underdogs. And it won’t take anyone to tell you that favorites are fighters who stand a higher chance of winning. But do they win all the time? Of course not.
Regular gamblers will understand this subject matter a bit more because favorites and underdogs are reflected in betting odds. As a rule of thumb – the higher a fighter’s chances of winning, the lower the fighter’s odds. So, if only they could know when the favorites will win so that they can stack those bets on higher odds in Casino Lemon. That would be great, wouldn’t it?
Well, we don’t have a sure way of knowing when the favourite or underdog will win – that’s impossible. But we can look at it from a statistical perspective. Read on and enjoy!
How are Favorites Decided in the First Place?
First, how are favorites decided? Well, it is not based on one metric. Here are some of the key factors that determine who will be the favourite of MMA bouts:
- Physical Attributes: By this, we refer to strength, speed, agility, and other things that translate to a fighter’s physical performance. Sometimes, these physical attributes can be a reflection of age. Younger fighters tend to be quicker and more agile. But don’t forget that older fighters have more experience too.
- Rankings: In most MMA promotions, there are two different rankings – the weight class ranking and pound-for-pound (P4P) rankings. Weight class ranking, as the name implies, only features fighters within the same weight class. P4P rankings, on the other hand, only feature the best of the best since it cuts across all weight classes. In short, the higher the rank, the higher the ‘favourite tendency.’
- Form: This refers to questions like – how fit is the fighter? How did their last fight go? Was it a win or a loss? If it was a win, was it won dominantly or edged through point fighting? Are they on a winning streak?
- Fighting Style: Styles make fights. For example, fighters with a strong wrestling base tend to have an advantage over a striker (if they can get the fight to the ground). So, stylistically, they have some sort of ‘edge.’ That is why the style of fighters is very important in gauging if they are favorites.
Some other less important things that are also considered are coaching staff, injury records, and even home advantage. Yes, fighters who fight in their home city may have a little upper hand. Apart from the crowd being in their favour, they are also subjected to less stress of travelling, getting used to the altitude, and settling down generally.
These factors determine the favourite and ‘how much of a favourite’ a fighter will be over their opponent.
So, How Often Do Favourites Win?
We used the UFC as a case study since it is the leading MMA organization. And looking at a sample size of 500+ fights, 65% of favorites win their fight.
However, there is more to this stat. Aside from being heavily inclined to win, there is also a place of how ‘strong’ the chances of winning a fighter are, and this is reflected in the gap in both fighter’s odds. When there is a huge gap, the win rate of favorites bumps to as high as 80%.
So in summary, being a favourite is not enough. Rather, you also have to assess how much of a favourite a fighter is, compared to the underdog. The larger the gap, the better it is for the favoured fighter.
Are there Specific Divisions Where Favourites are More Biased to Win?
Using the UFC as a case study again, certain divisions have an inclination towards favorites than others. The women’s featherweight division (if it is not eventually abolished by Dana White) has seen the favorites win their bouts more often. After that, the men’s Flyweight, Bantamweight, and Welterweight are also divisions where favorites win frequently. Check and observe by yourself!
Some Interesting Facts You Should Know
Here are some interesting facts you should know as they have become a form of trend:
- Underdog champions tend to win against their opponent
- Rematches almost always play out the same way
- Fighters holding two belts at the same time are rare
- Men’s flyweight division favorites almost always win their fight
Note that these facts are coined from the number one MMA organization, UFC, but they can also apply to other promotions.
Final Words
If you didn’t pay attention to these metrics, you probably won’t know it. But we’ve brought it to your attention now; try to observe it when you’re watching your next set of fights.