Saturday, May 7th, the Footprint Center in Phoenix is host to UFC 274, which sees a stacked card headlined by the Lightweight Championship bout featuring Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira and crowd-favorite Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje.
Clearly, both men possess the tools to get their hand raised, but who is most likely to put another tick in their win column this weekend? Our preview of this mouth-watering match-up takes a closer look.
Oliveira vs Gaethje Fight Preview
There’s a lot to like about Charles Oliveira, not least that this is his third fight in 12 months. Active champions who are willing to step up and put it all on the line so frequently definitely get a nod of approval from us.
Do Bronx will make his second defense of the title in Phoenix, and he has every reason to feel confident that he’ll be taking the strap back home with him. This is a fighter who looks to be in his prime, and perhaps more importantly, in a weight class that is the perfect fit for his size.
We have to go back to 2017 for the last time Oliveira lost in the octagon (vs Paul Felder at UFC 218). Since then, he’s put a 10-fight win streak together, which includes several of the division’s biggest names in Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, and most recently, Dustin Poirier.
However, it’s the manner of these victories that stands out, which is highlighted by eight Performance of the Night bonuses from those 10 fights. Both of his last two fights have essentially been ‘come from behind’ victories, as he was floored in the first rounds against Chandler and Poirier. The will and resolve of Do Bronx now could be a deciding factor.
Added to that, he has the tools. His front push kick is, in our opinion, a very underrated weapon. He uses it to great effect to keep the distance when required, and his striking (while not the heaviest in the division) is more than acceptable – just ask Chandler. Then, you have his ground game, which is second to none. These skills were showcased by his standing RNC against the Diamond.
The Highlight
Justin Gaethje is hoping May 7 is second time lucky for him. The Highlight first fought for the title against Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254. Granted, he held the interim belt at the time, but we don’t class that as a true championship fight.
That night against The Eagle didn’t go well for him, and after a tepid first round, he was choked out in the second. Still, he sprung back into the win column with a victory against Michael Chandler at UFC 268, which earned him this shot.
So, how does Gaethje dethrone the champ? Of course, the Highlight is known for his all-action style, which is why he has become so popular with the fans, but Oliveira has taken shots from Chandler, so he’s no stranger to heavy hands.
For us, the key to victory for Gaethje is to fight as he did against Tony Ferguson when he won the interim strap. This was his most-measured performance in the octagon. He totally dominated Tony that night with his low leg kicks doing the damage that then created space up top. However, like that fight, he needs to stay disciplined to beat Charles. If the fight goes to the ground and Gaethje gives up his back, then it could be all over pretty fast.
A note of interest, this will be Oliveira’s 30th UFC fight, but never has he seen the 4th and 5th rounds. Gaethje has twice gone beyond three – losing to Poirier in the 4th in 2018 and when he beat Ferguson by unanimous decision after 5 rounds in 2020. This is an unknown variable to consider, which potentially may favor Justin.
Oliveira vs Gaethje Betting Odds
The sportsbooks seemed to have learned their lesson this time around. Charles was the underdog for his fight against Poirier, but as we get nearer fight night this time around, he is -170 favorite, with Gaethje currently available at +150. Get your bets on early and claim some free betting offers to maximize your returns this weekend.
For us, these prices are on the money. We believe Charles has the skills to blunt Gaethje, and when the opening arises, he’ll take the back and secure another submission victory.