The second UFC event in a three-day span, ‘The Ultimate Fighter Season 22’ finale is headlined by a featherweight bout that could determine the next contender to the winner of Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor title unification bout, which takes place the very next day at UFC 194. I suspect that this placement was intentional, so that the UFC has a suitable substitute in case Aldo or McGregor pull out of their scheduled bout. Of course that would mean losing the main event, but hey, it’s a TUF Finale card on Fox Sports 1. Keeping the featherweight title bout at 194 is far more important to the UFC, and this card would still have a strong headliner in Tony Ferguson vs Edson Barboza. But let’s hope that everyone stays healthy, and both cards remain intact.
Main Event: [#2 FW] Frankie Edgar vs [#6 FW] Chad Mendes
Worth: $15
Why: This is a top-notch matchup between two of the most elite fighters in the division. The winner could become the next title contender, depending on a couple of factors. As Mendes has already lost twice to the reigning champion Aldo, and was stopped by McGregor in their fight for the interim title, should he beat Edgar it’s unlikely that he will face the winner of Aldo-McGregor next. Edgar on the other hand has already lost to Aldo but never fought McGregor, so if Conor unifies the titles then Edgar is likely to be his next opponent. The other factor is the Max Holloway vs Jeremy Stephens fight which also takes place the next day at UFC 194: should Holloway win and extend his UFC streak to eight straight, he will likely jump the line ahead of Edgar as the next contender.
Let’s set the featherweight title picture aside for a second, and focus on the actual fight. It’s a very close matchup of well rounded fighters with similar skill sets. Mendes is the harder puncher of the two, but Edgar is extremely tough, and also seems like a better technician and tactician. Though at 34, Edgar is four years older than his opponent, he has not yet shown any sign of decline in his recent fights. I believe this is Edgar’s fight to lose, and hope that he fights for the title next – particularly if McGregor comes out victorious at 194.
Fight: [#5 LW] Tony Ferguson vs [#12 LW] Edson Barboza
Worth: $20
Why: Originally, Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson was scheduled to welcome Khabib Nurmagomedov back to the Octagon after an extended layoff, in a #1 contender bout. Unfortunately Nurmagomedov suffered yet another injury in training, further delaying his return. Fortunately, Edson Barboza stepped up to fill the opening, giving us a matchup just as good as the original. Ferguson is on a tear, with six straight wins and four finishes, culminating with a thorough beating of Josh Thompson which put Tony in the Top 5. Edson Barboza doesn’t have as impressive of a record in recent outings, but is 10-3 in the UFC overall and seems to be still improving as a fighter. A dangerous striker vs a well rounded fighter who is a threat in all aspects of the game, this should be a great fight and will likely produce the next contender for the winner of the (C) Rafael dos Anjos vs Donald Cerrone title bout later this month.
Fight: [#20 LW] Joe Lauzon vs [#25 LW] Evan Dunham
Worth: $10
Why: Joe Lauzon holds the record for most total ‘of the night’ bonuses in the UFC, and while he is not likely to ever fight for the gold, I’ve yet to see him in anything even remotely resembling a boring fight. I can’t say the same about Evan Dunham, who has had his share of snoozers, but the man who was touted as a prospect early in his UFC career before hitting a rough patch is having somewhat of a resurgence. I’m curious to see if Dunham can keep the momentum going, and I believe that Lauzon can coax an exciting fight out of any opponent.
Fight: [#32 WW] Ryan LaFlare vs [NR] Mike Pierce
Worth: $1
Why: Ryan LaFlare came into the UFC with a perfect record, 7 finishes in 7 fights. Since then he has amassed a 4-1 record in the Octagon, with all five fights going to a decision and none of them being particular memorable. His opponent Mike Pierce is 9-4 in the UFC overall, and making his return after a 2 year long layoff (caused by an injury incurred when his last opponent Rousimar Palhares cranked a heel hook like only Palhares can). Pierce is your average clinch-grinding wrestle-boxer with a decent power but an abysmal finish rate. I’m not particularly looking forward to this affair, but sometimes a fight between two generally unexciting fighters turns out to be fun to watch – here’s a dollar hoping that it happens in this bout.
Fight: [#26 FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri vs [#33 FW] Jason Knight
Worth: $1
Why: Tatsuya ‘Crusher’ Kawajiri, a long time veteran of the Japanese MMA scene and briefly a #1 ranked lightweight back in 2005, joined the UFC after dropping down to 145 lbs near the tail end of his career. Another victim of a last minute opponent change, Kawajiri was initially slated to fight Mirsad Bectik, but now gets to welcome a UFC newcomer to the promotion. Jason Knight has a solid 14-1 record with 12 submissions, and is on an 8 fight winning streak, but has not fought any world-class opponents to date. I don’t know much about Knight beyond what his record reveals, and have never been a huge fan of the aging Crusher, nonetheless I’ll throw a nominal dollar in the pot to see how Knight deals with a step up to the big leagues.
Fight: [#33 HW] Konstantin Erokhin vs [#39 HW] Gabriel Gonzaga
Worth: $5
Why: Two heavyweights with 37 fights and only 4 decisions between them. Someone is going to sleep here. And it may be a ‘loser leaves the UFC’ type fight, with Gonzaga on a 3 fight skid and Erokhin 0-1 in the UFC and not looking particularly good in his debut. No divisional implications here, but should be a fun to watch, however it goes.
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Fox Sports 1 Event Worth: $52
Fox Sports 1 Even Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Event Net Value: $47
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Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $652
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $114
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $538