Since the Conor McGregor hype train is still screaming down the tracks, I thought I’d take a look at fighters with the most similar career arcs.
The methodology:
- I used data from the Generated Historical Rankings which are recorded in quarterly snapshots.
- I took Conor’s ranking data from his 5th appearance until current.
- I ensured that fighters only qualified if they had at least the same amount of appearances.
- I took the absolute value of the difference between his ranking in each appearance to other fighters’ ranking in that same appearance. The lower the overall average, the closer the career arc.
Most Similar: Kyoji Horiguchi
Record At 17th Appearance: 13-1-0
| # | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| Conor | 86 | 66 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Kyoji | 87 | 64 | 77 | 50 | 77 | 59 | 24 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Eerily similar, especially considering Kyoji also started in a higher division than where he ended up. Notice, he got his big shot almost exactly when Conor will get his — and failed.
2nd Most Similar: Ben Henderson
Record At 17th Appearance: 15-2-0
| # | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| Conor | 86 | 66 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Ben | 103 | 74 | 49 | 48 | 33 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Certainly not bad company here.. and like Conor, Ben got his big chance right around the same time as Kyoji and Conor… but he succeeded.
3rd Most Similar: Ronaldo Souza
Record At 17th Appearance: 12-2-0
| # | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| Conor | 86 | 66 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Ronaldo | 61 | 65 | 60 | 64 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 3 |
Currently, Ronaldo is well past his 20th appearance in the quarterlies (where the above table ends), but he never quite broke through that barrier at the edge of the Top 3.
4th Most Similar: Lorenz Larkin
Record At 17th Appearance: 14-3-0
| # | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| Conor | 86 | 66 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Lorenz | 66 | 54 | 57 | 52 | 54 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 36 | 38 | 26 |
Larkin seemed to be well on his way, but never broke into a Top 10 and ended up being a fringe contender. Only time will tell us where he ultimately ends up.
5th Most Similar: Tyron Woodley
Record At 17th Appearance: 11-2-0
| # | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| Conor | 86 | 66 | 65 | 73 | 73 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Tyron | 79 | 84 | 45 | 33 | 38 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 3 |
Woodley didn’t see his greatest success until his 20th quarterly appearance, but the ascent up the chart was similar to Conor’s.