With a fight coming up between Magomed Ankalaev and Khalil Rountree on July 25th — which will be an extremely important fight that could put either fighter back atop the MMA rankings as they each have an opportunity to get back to where they once were.
Ankalaev, just weeks ago ended Alex Pereira’s long run of being undefeated in the middleweight division. Though he later lost the rematch.
Rountree, is another strong contender and earned himself a title shot through a five-fight win streak. Despite giving it all he had, he fell short and was defeated by the champ, Poatan.
Since then, Rountree has gone one-and-one against other top opponents. Both fighters now face a critical juncture with this bout, making it a do-or-die situation if they want to earn themselves another chance at becoming the world champion.
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Magomed Ankalaev vs. Khalil Rountree Odds
DraftKings lists Ankalaev as a -333 favorite to defeat Rountree, who is a +250 underdog.
Why This Match Matters
When Alex Pereira moved up to heavyweight after UFC 320, he created a vacancy in the light heavyweight division for Carlos Ulberg to claim the title via a hard-won victory over Jiří Procházka. Currently, the division is still looking for a clear no. 1 contender, and all roads lead back to the Etihad arena in Abu Dhabi on July 25th for this title eliminator matchup.
Former champion, Magomed Ankalaev, who is Russia’s first-ever light heavyweight champion is now competing to regain his top spot in the division.
Khalil Rountree Jr. is hoping to gain a second opportunity for UFC gold.
Current Stats
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev is second in the meta rankings and first in media rankings. At age thirty-four, Ankalaev holds a pro-record of 21-2-1. He also has a long list of victims from his fights. They include Volkan Oezdemir, Thiago Santos, Aleksandar Rakić, Anthony Smith, and of course, Alex Pereira (UFC 313).
The fight against Pereira at UFC 313 was an extremely close bout. Of twenty two media members who voted, ten voted for Pereira while eleven voted for Ankalaev and one voted for a draw.
Magomed Ankalaev is a kickboxer. He lands an average of three and a half significant strikes per minute. With a fifty-two percent striking accuracy, Ankalaev rarely misses when he throws punches. On top of that, his defensive striking rate is an impressive fifty-six percent; as such Ankalaev is rarely hit cleanly.
Ankalaev’s takedown percentage is twenty-two percent which further reinforces his preference to take advantage of his opponents on the feet. His takedown defense is seventy-seven percent which forces opponents to either shoot for a takedown or continue to throw hands with him.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Rountree is shorter than Ankalaev at 6’1″.
Although Rountree attempts significantly more volume than Ankalaev per round, as he averages 3.88 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Ankalaev’s 3.65; his strike accuracy sits at merely 40%, and his striking defense sits at an abysmal 49%.
Additionally, his offensive grappling statistics are nearly nonexistent; possessing a 0.00 takedown average and needing to rely on his 58% takedown defense to maintain his ability to stand with Ankalaev.
Some of Rountree’s wins have been quite debatable. For example, his decision victory over Dustin Jacoby has remained one of the more contentious scoring decisions in recent memory of light heavyweights; 14 media members awarded the fight to Jacoby; whereas only 2 media members gave it to Rountree.
In fact, Rountree’s last fight against Jiří Procházka was a prime example of how a fighter can lose because he ran out of gas. Rountree arguably took rounds 1 & 2 against Procházka; however, he became entirely spent. Procházka continued to march forward with zombie-like pressure and ultimately overwhelmed an exhausted Rountree in the final round for the stoppage victory.
Due to a drug test suspension that occurred prior to the originally scheduled UFC 303 contest between Jamahal Hill and Rountree, Rountree’s road to this title eliminator has not been easy.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Khalil Rountree Predictions
Many stats intangible factors clearly favor the previous champion. There may be a chance of Rountree having a flash knockout in the opening round but our prediction for this match is Magomed Ankalaev winning via the judges’ scorecards.
Ankalaev has 10 total knockouts in his MMA career. When objectively looking at how Ankalaev finished most of his fights in the UFC, most of them were due to him facing veteran fighters who had already seen their best days. We’re talking of names like Johnny Walker, Anthony Smith and Ion Cutelaba.
Ankalaev does not run at the same level of energy that Procházka runs at which would cause such fatigue. Ankalaev is perfectly fine running in a controlled speed and choosing to pick his opponent apart over 25 minutes.
Rountree’s 49% defensive striking number is a huge disadvantage for a five-round bout. Ankalaev, as previously mentioned, has demonstrated both good accuracy (.52) and excellent counter-punching ability, thus creating a home for Ankalaev to throw his straight punches and kicks.
Of course we need to consider the cumulative damage too. Rountree has been knocked out four times during his career and two times in his last three outings to the Octagon. Ankalaev has absorbed much less consistent damage throughout his entire career.