Charles Oliveira knows how to take a punch. He has taken a few. After all, the man has been in 47 professional bouts. Winning some, losing some. Never giving up in the process. That’s Do Bronx for you. If some other fighters were in his boots, he would have retired a while ago, but not Charles Oliveira. Instead, he will put his body on the line once again when he meets Max Holloway at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on March 7th. For a fighter of Oliveira’s past there couldn’t be a better opponent than Blessed, for a symbolic title of the Baddest Mother F**ker in the UFC.
While symbolic in terms of UFC rankings, for two fighters of Holloway’s and Oliveira’s pedigree it means more than your average title. Max more than deserved to carry the BMF belt, after securing it in a memorable fashion at UFC 300. Oliveira, on the other hand, is trying to get another title shot through this bout, and despite his 36-11 record is entering the T-Mobile Arena as an underdog. You will need all the betting tips for UFC 326 you can get as this match is going to be a tricky one.
While every bookmaker out there is pitting the odds against the Do Bronx, Charles is not one to be underestimated. In the past, he carved a career out of being a fighter and bookie underestimating him. He is prepared to go against the odds once again, and we’re more than eager to witness how he will do it. Oliveira can win, and we have more than a few ideas on how he could do it under the right circumstances.
Oliveira’s Blueprint for UFC 326
Winning against Max Holloway is not an easy task. Only a few selected fighters have managed to do so in the past. For Charles, success will lie in the strategy he applies. What he needs to do at all cost is to avoid entering mid range exchanges with max, that would take too much time off the clock and too much damage on Charles’ body. Instead, Oliveira needs to try and do some dirty boxing paired with clinch battles which are his forte. Lastly, he needs to take the fight down to the ground and avoid spending too much time on feet countering Holloway’s long arms. Once he starts with takedowns, he needs to spend the majority of the bout trying to take the opponent into submission. This is the best route to take. Blessed has impressive cardio, but even he can be worn down.
Inside Oliveira’s 36-11 Resume
While 11 defeats might be too much for UFC standards, the secret to Charles Oliveira’s greatness lies behind his 36 wins. 17 of those wins came via submission. This is an UFC record for wins via submission, but in addition to that one, he also holders another one. Oliveira has 21 finishes in 36 wins, which is also an UFC record. For those 21 finishes he received 21 different fight nights, or performance bonuses. No other fighter has been as active, as aggressive, and willing to go out there and show what he is made of than Do Bronx.
Despite an impressive career, Charles Oliveira hasn’t been as impressive as of late. It is why every major UFC 326 Sportsbook has him as the underdog vs. Max Holloway at UFC 326. The last two wins to his name weren’t too impressive as they were a submission win against Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro, and a win by unanimous decision vs. Michael Chandler at UFC 309. Between those two wins he lost in high fashion via knockout to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317.
While his two latest wins shouldn’t be taken against him, this time around we’re going to focus on his defeat to Topuria. Sometimes, Oliveira can go all out from the get go, leaving no focus on the defense. He’s the most vulnerable when he opens up early on. This is why Topuria knocked him out with ease, and the same could happen against Holloway if he doesn’t prepare a game plan to counter Max’s strengths. Of course, not so long ago, Max Holloway was taken out by Topuria, and these days there is no shame in losing to El Matador who is one of the hardest hitters in the UFC.
Fight Odds and Betting Trends
As we already said, Charles Oliveira is entering UFC 326 as an underdog. Stake odds have him at 2.60 which is a clear sign that there is not too much faith in his ability to wrap this one to his favour. On the other hand, Max Holloway has his odds set at 1.51, and they’ve been dropping in recent days as they opened at 1.55. Public opinion has Holloway as a clear cut favorite leaving a lot of space for all of us eager to wager on the underdog.
While the odds might suggest otherwise, there isn’t as much of a gap between these two men. That’s why it is important to follow the betting markets in the next few weeks, leading up to the UFC 326 event, and looking for odds on Do Bronx win to grow even further. When you look at Oliveira’s ability to finish matches that he has demonstrated in the past, it is impossible to look past him as a genuine fighter who can pull an upset here. This is why you need to take a look at all of the props bets available for this duel, as an Oliveira’s win via submission is not out of the question.
What Makes Max Holloway the Favorite?
It is all in the hands. There’s no arguing that Holloway is the better striker between the two men. Stats show that he lands 7.24 significant strikes per minute. Oliveira’s numbers in the same domain stand at 3.48. So, in terms of striking, it appears that Holloway is twice the striker, and that if he keeps this bout on foot, he will come out as the clear winner. While the main advantage Oliveira has over Holloway comes in the form of his wrestling, with an 84% rate of defended takedowns, Holloways is quite immune to this style of fighting. With Oliveira not being among the most precise wrestlers with his takedown accuracy standing at 40% it is unclear how this style of fight serves to his advantage.
Well, stats only tell a part of the entire story. The stats we described above are all about fighter tendencies. Yes, they are based on their past encounters, but each new fight is different. Fights are won by disrupting tendencies. Holloway’s volume of striking is on the level above only when he is in his rhythm and when the opponent is constantly within his striking range. Mid distance is where he does his magic, and if Oliveira allows his jab to work, he could be in trouble. But, as the fight goes on, it gets harder to retain the same tendency and frequency of selected punches.
It is in fact that Holloway’s biggest strength can be Oliveira’s advantage. While he is known as someone landing quite a lot of punches throughout the match, Holloway doesn’t have the power behind his strikes like Ilia Topuria has. What this means of Do Bronx is that even if he takes some damage early on, he will still have enough time to make his game plan work. That time was lacking when he faced Topuria, and we’re sure that Charles is much wiser this time around, especially if he hopes that holding the BMF belt takes him one step closer to having a rematch against the Georgian-Spanish fighter.
Close Range is The Oliveira’s Drop Zone
Most pundits agree on one thing, Charles is not without the ability to win this bout. Yet, in order to achieve it, he will need a solid game plan relying on his ability to make all the exchanges happen in the close range. This is a good plan, especially as he is not fighting Ilia again, who can wrap up any fighter with one hit. Holloway needs more than one these days and that’s no secret. The secret of Do Bronx win lies in closing the distance, make a few attempts to clinch Holloway, and then hit him with dirty boxing. Once this is done, he can move onto takedowns. If Oliveira finds a way to shorten this bout, he will be one step closer to winning it.
While looking at both fighters from the outside, an untrained eye would see two very different fighting styles. This is not completely true. Oliveira is the one with more versatility, who can fight both on feet and on the ground alike. We could witness this in both of his last wins against Gamrot and Chandler. Of course, none of it was seen vs. Topuria as El Matador was on another level that night and wrapped the fight before Oliveira had a chance to implement any plans before the fight.
Max Holloway is entering this bout as a favorite but he is not one to underestimate any opponent. During his last couple of bouts , he showed that the spark is still there. Yes, he lost to Topuria, but he also managed to record wins against the likes of Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Chang Sung Jung, and Arnold Allen. While most of his recent opponents are great MMA fighters, none of them is good at submissions the way Charles Oliveira is. When you add to the mix his habit of absorbing strikes due to desire to land a few back while he keeps the bout in pocket, you know that one misstep and Holloway is taken down. This is how Oliveira can make this bout all about him.
Submission as The Way to Go
In a way, Charles Oliveira is like Bitcoin. He is a highly volatile currency as far as MMA fighting goes. When you look at his appearance vs. Topuria he looked vulnerable and he suffered a heavy defeat. Yet, when you look at how he dominated Gamrot, you’d think he is an untouchable UFC legend. His highs and lows are what make him unpredictable and dangerous. If he manages to hit the stride early on at UFC 326, he will show why he is the best fisher that the UFC has ever seen.
Max Holloway knows this, but he will also try to make this out all about himself. He is a durable lad, knows how to take a punch, and gives one back. Yet, he never faced a fighter that knows how to make a submission after submission after submission. Well, not since he last fought Charles Oliveira. Considering that their first duel was a decade ago, they’re not the same fighters anymore. In accordance with that, we believe that Oliveira has advanced more, and has refined the best parts of his game. If he manages to take Holloway down a few times early, and sets the tone of the bout, he can come out victorious even as an underdog.
What’s Next for the BMF Title Holder?
UFC 326 sets the tone for the lightweight division. After Paddy Pimblett lost to Justin Gaethje, and made him the interim champion every top ranked fighter now has a chance to go for the belt. Topuria will defend it against Gaethje, and wait for the next opponent from a poll of very interesting names. Benoit Saint Denis already called out the winner of the UFC 326 event, while at the same time Paddy the Baddy stated that he will fight any fighter who comes up next and listed Benoit Saint Denis as a great matchup.
Whoever wins the BMF belt will be one step closer to getting into lightweight title contention once again. If Topuria wins vs. Gaethje, and we think he will, the next opponent will be one of Max Holloway, Benoit Saint Denis, Charles Oliveira, or Paddy Pimblett. If Topuria vacates the belt and moves up the division, these boys will just have to sort it out. 2026 is shaping out to be quite an interesting year in the UFC and we are all up for it.