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Fight Matrix
Best Betting Sites in Philippines at MightyTips.ph
Best Betting Sites in Philippines at MightyTips.ph

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh (02-28-2026)

Posted on February 23, 2026 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2, -257) vs. [#76][#33UFC] Loneer Kavanagh (9-1-0, +199)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (2-1-0)
2025-12-06: L vs. [#3FLY] Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 2
2025-03-29: W vs. [#11FLY] Steve Erceg (13-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#13FLY] Amir Albazi (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Loneer Kavanagh (2-1-0)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#30FLY] Charles Johnson (18-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:35 of round 2
2025-03-22: W vs. [#128FLY] Felipe dos Santos (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#57FLY] Jose Ochoa (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brandon Moreno -257 68.28%
Elo K170 Brandon Moreno 1892.17 +333.88 87.24%
Elo Modified Brandon Moreno 1924.87 +341.08 87.69%
Glicko-1 Brandon Moreno 2001.24 +427.21 92.12%
WHR Brandon Moreno 1871.79 +327.67 86.84%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Moreno 32.2, Loneer Kavanagh 26.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 84, Loneer Kavanagh 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#12][#11UFC] Marlon Vera (24-11-1, +212) vs. [#15][#14UFC] David Martinez (13-1-0, -268)
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #32 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (0-3-0)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#8BW] Aiemann Zahabi (14-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#10DD][#3BW] Sean OMalley (19-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: David Martinez (3-0-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#16BW] Rob Font (22-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#1024FW] Saimon Oliveira (18-7-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2024-10-01: W vs. [#357FW] Xavier Franklin (6-1-1) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds David Martinez -268 69.44%
Elo K170 Marlon Vera 1853.42 +34.81 54.99%
Elo Modified Marlon Vera 1910.59 +64.77 59.21%
Glicko-1 Marlon Vera 1995.32 +110.11 65.34%
WHR Marlon Vera 1808.38 +32.47 54.66%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Marlon Vera 33.2, David Martinez 27.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Vera 133, David Martinez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#47][#27UFC] Bobby Green (33-17-1, +364) vs. [#95][#48UFC] Daniel Zellhuber (15-3-0, -510)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-2-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#202LW] Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#10LW] Mauricio Ruffy (13-2-0) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-07-27: L vs. [#9LW] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Zellhuber (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#55LW] Michael Johnson (24-19-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#60LW] Esteban Ribovics (15-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#249WW] Francisco Prado (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Daniel Zellhuber -510 79.50%
Elo K170 Bobby Green 1738.10 +131.40 68.06%
Elo Modified Bobby Green 1693.35 +21.12 53.04%
Glicko-1 Daniel Zellhuber 1741.20 +30.64 54.40%
WHR Bobby Green 1671.12 +30.43 54.37%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bobby Green 39.5, Daniel Zellhuber 26.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 77, Daniel Zellhuber 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#53][#27UFC] Felipe Bunes (14-8-0, +211) vs. [#89][#39UFC] Edgar Chairez (12-6-0, -270)

Last 3 Fights: Felipe Bunes (1-2-0)
2025-08-02: L vs. [#62BW] Rafael Estevam (14-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#400FW] Jose Johnson (18-11-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:04 of round 1
2024-01-13: L vs. [#2DD][#4P4P][#1FLY] Joshua Van (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Edgar Chairez (2-1-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#234FLY] C.J. Vergara (12-7-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:30 of round 1
2024-09-14: L vs. [#2DD][#4P4P][#1FLY] Joshua Van (16-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#310BW] Daniel Lacerda (14-7-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:17 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edgar Chairez -270 69.41%
Elo K170 Felipe Bunes 1525.14 +48.20 56.89%
Elo Modified Felipe Bunes 1524.92 +39.69 55.69%
Glicko-1 Felipe Bunes 1565.76 +39.72 55.69%
WHR Edgar Chairez 1545.90 +11.72 51.68%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Felipe Bunes 36.3, Edgar Chairez 30.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Felipe Bunes 210, Edgar Chairez 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#64] Imanol Rodriguez (6-0-0, -394) vs. [#90][#40UFC] Kevin Borjas (10-4-0, +293)

Last 3 Fights: Imanol Rodriguez (3-0-0)
2025-10-07: W vs. [#210FLY] Roque Conceicao Moreira J (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2024-09-22: W vs. [#282FLY] Alberto Trujillo (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:27 of round 1
2024-07-12: W vs. [#1446BW] Tyrell Hill (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:50 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Borjas (1-2-0)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#62FLY] Su Mudaerji (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#96FLY] Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#138FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Imanol Rodriguez -394 75.81%
Elo K170 Imanol Rodriguez 1542.62 +120.19 66.64%
Elo Modified Imanol Rodriguez 1639.72 +207.24 76.73%
Glicko-1 Imanol Rodriguez 1660.11 +205.23 76.52%
WHR Imanol Rodriguez 1602.79 +167.87 72.44%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Imanol Rodriguez 26.3, Kevin Borjas 28.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Imanol Rodriguez 144, Kevin Borjas 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#147][#58UFC] Santiago Luna (7-0-0, -470) vs. [*] Angel Pacheco (8-3-0, +344)

Last 3 Fights: Santiago Luna (3-0-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#272BW] Quang Le (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 1
2025-05-22: W vs. [#1701FW] Desmond Manabat (4-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 1
2024-09-06: W vs. [*] Magomed Bayduev (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:41 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Angel Pacheco (1-2-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#366FW] Caolan Loughran (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-09-26: L vs. [#147FW] Danny Silva (10-2-0) via UD ()
2022-08-26: W vs. [#214BW] Vilson Ndregjoni (11-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:27 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Santiago Luna -470 78.54%
Elo K170 Santiago Luna 1524.50 +299.06 84.83%
Elo Modified Santiago Luna 1578.76 +318.99 86.25%
Glicko-1 Santiago Luna 1556.87 +282.25 83.54%
WHR Santiago Luna 1481.17 +225.69 78.57%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Santiago Luna 21.5, Angel Pacheco 34.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Santiago Luna 168, Angel Pacheco 700
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#118] Ryan Gandra (8-1-0, -567) vs. [#560][#73UFC] Jose Medina (11-6-0, +393)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Gandra (3-0-0)
2025-08-26: W vs. [#318MW] Trent Miller (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:51 of round 1
2024-11-22: W vs. [#414MW] Vladimir Calvo Marrero (7-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:28 of round 1
2023-11-03: W vs. [*] Alessandro Gambulino (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jose Medina (0-3-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#192MW] Dusko Todorovic (13-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:21 of round 1
2025-03-29: L vs. [#99MW] Ateba Abega Gautier (10-1-0) via KO (Punches and Knee) in 3:32 of round 1
2024-08-24: L vs. [#112MW] Zachary Reese (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Gandra -567 80.73%
Elo K170 Ryan Gandra 1563.53 +422.84 91.94%
Elo Modified Ryan Gandra 1601.46 +431.97 92.32%
Glicko-1 Ryan Gandra 1611.21 +449.14 92.99%
WHR Ryan Gandra 1515.87 +367.34 89.23%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ryan Gandra 30.8, Jose Medina 34.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Gandra 186, Jose Medina 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#9][#8UFC] Ailin Perez (12-2-0, -166) vs. [#12][#10UFC] Macy Chiasson (10-5-0, +135)

Last 3 Fights: Ailin Perez (3-0-0)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#7BW] Karol Rosa (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: W vs. [#16BW] Darya Zheleznyakova (10-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:52 of round 1
2024-06-01: W vs. [#8BW] Joselyne Edwards (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Macy Chiasson (1-2-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#5BW] Yana Santos (17-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-05-31: L vs. [#4BW] Ketlen Vieira (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#33BW] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-6-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:58 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ailin Perez -166 59.46%
Elo K170 Ailin Perez 1637.25 +151.80 70.56%
Elo Modified Ailin Perez 1654.35 +132.16 68.15%
Glicko-1 Ailin Perez 1633.71 +137.68 68.84%
WHR Ailin Perez 1579.52 +102.47 64.33%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ailin Perez 31.4, Macy Chiasson 34.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ailin Perez 406, Macy Chiasson 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#261][#65UFC] Kris Moutinho (14-7-0, +437) vs. [*] Cristian Quinonez (18-5-0, -643)

Last 3 Fights: Kris Moutinho (2-1-0)
2025-06-14: L vs. [#410FW] Malcolm Wellmaker (10-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:37 of round 1
2024-11-09: W vs. [#603FW] Johnny Campbell (24-18-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 2
2024-05-18: W vs. [#1723LW] Elijah Harris (6-12-0) via TKO in 1:44 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Cristian Quinonez (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#25BW] Raoni Barcelos (21-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:04 of round 3
2023-06-17: L vs. [*] Kyung Ho Kang (19-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:25 of round 1
2022-09-03: W vs. [#130FW] Khalid Taha (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cristian Quinonez -643 82.29%
Elo K170 Cristian Quinonez 1512.98 +109.33 65.24%
Elo Modified Cristian Quinonez 1527.14 +97.28 63.65%
Glicko-1 Cristian Quinonez 1541.25 +88.91 62.52%
WHR Cristian Quinonez 1502.20 +134.26 68.41%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kris Moutinho 33.5, Cristian Quinonez 29.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kris Moutinho 259, Cristian Quinonez 735
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#82] Javier Reyes (23-5-0, -240) vs. [*] Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Javier Reyes (2-1-0)
2025-09-23: W vs. [#311FW] Justice Torres (13-5-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 2:32 of round 1
2025-06-13: W vs. [#325FW] Lance Lawrence (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:29 of round 2
2025-05-09: L vs. [#146FW] Chris Mecate (13-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Douglas Silva de Andrade (1-2-0)
2024-06-15: L vs. [#47BW] Miles Johns (16-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#255FW] Cody Stamann (22-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-09: L vs. [#39BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Javier Reyes -240 66.56%
Elo K170 Douglas Silva de Andrade 1685.54 +30.02 54.31%
Elo Modified Javier Reyes 1689.85 +0.24 50.04%
Glicko-1 Javier Reyes 1739.97 +15.38 52.21%
WHR Douglas Silva de Andrade 1625.08 +5.70 50.82%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Javier Reyes 32.4, Douglas Silva de Andrade 40.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Javier Reyes 158, Douglas Silva de Andrade 623
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#48][#23UFC] Ernesta Kareckaite (6-1-1, -323) vs. [#94] Sofia Montenegro (6-2-0, +240)

Last 3 Fights: Ernesta Kareckaite (2-1-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#78FLY] Nicolle Caliari (8-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#42FLY] Dione Barbosa (8-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-26: W vs. [#27FLY] Carli Judice (6-2-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Sofia Montenegro (2-1-0)
2025-09-23: L vs. [#91FLY] Jeisla Chaves (7-0-0) via SD ()
2025-06-21: W vs. [#189FLY] Damara Vargas (4-5-0) via UD ()
2024-09-25: W vs. [#127FLY] Anyela Perez (2-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ernesta Kareckaite -323 72.19%
Elo K170 Ernesta Kareckaite 1374.31 +192.51 75.18%
Elo Modified Sofia Montenegro 1303.66 +20.50 52.95%
Glicko-1 Sofia Montenegro 1286.62 +77.93 61.03%
WHR Sofia Montenegro 1272.96 +11.87 51.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ernesta Kareckaite 27.6, Sofia Montenegro 26.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ernesta Kareckaite 413, Sofia Montenegro 158
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#236][#63UFC] Francis Marshall (8-3-0, -563) vs. [*] Erik Silva (9-3-0, +396)

Last 3 Fights: Francis Marshall (1-2-0)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#40FW] Mairon Santos (17-1-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-24: W vs. [*] Dennis Buzukja (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#299FW] Isaac Dulgarian (7-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Erik Silva (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#69FW] Muhammadjon Naimov (13-4-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 0:44 of round 1
2022-12-10: L vs. [#159LW] T.J. Brown (21-12-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:41 of round 3
2022-08-09: W vs. [#1387FW] Anvar Boynazarov (7-6-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:32 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Francis Marshall -563 80.81%
Elo K170 Francis Marshall 1393.58 +7.88 51.14%
Elo Modified Francis Marshall 1467.62 +64.63 59.20%
Glicko-1 Francis Marshall 1454.24 +55.00 57.85%
WHR Francis Marshall 1502.22 +163.77 71.96%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Francis Marshall 26.9, Erik Silva 38.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Marshall 357, Erik Silva 735
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#121] Damian Pinas (8-1-0, -268) vs. [#215] Wesley Schultz (8-2-0, +209)

Last 3 Fights: Damian Pinas (3-0-0)
2025-09-30: W vs. [#224MW] Vitor Costa (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2024-12-13: W vs. [NA] Wesley da Silva Marques (5-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:59 of round 1
2024-09-20: W vs. [#181MW] Jhony Gregory (11-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Wesley Schultz (2-1-0)
2025-10-14: W vs. [#423MW] Mario Mingaj (7-1-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:51 of round 1
2025-04-12: W vs. [#575LHW] Dustin Pape (7-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2024-08-13: L vs. [#77MW] Mansur Abdul-Malik (10-0-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:55 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Damian Pinas -268 69.23%
Elo K170 Damian Pinas 1530.92 +133.06 68.26%
Elo Modified Damian Pinas 1563.30 +106.16 64.82%
Glicko-1 Damian Pinas 1617.57 +151.65 70.54%
WHR Damian Pinas 1567.26 +167.91 72.44%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Damian Pinas 23.9, Wesley Schultz 29.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damian Pinas 151, Wesley Schultz 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Marlon Vera
Highest Stored DD Rating: Brandon Moreno
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Brandon Moreno vs. Loneer Kavanagh
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2026-2-22

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