Interim Lightweight Championship (155 lbs)
January 24, 2026
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
[#5][#4 UFC] 
Justin Gaethje (26–5–0) vs. [#8][#5 UFC] 
Paddy Pimblett (23–3–0)
Stylistic Breakdown
Justin Gaethje
Pressure-based striker with high output, emphasis on leg kicks and mid-range exchanges. Defensive wrestling and takedown awareness have improved, particularly against single-shot entries. Historically effective over extended durations. Primary risk area remains prolonged grappling sequences and transitional control.
Paddy Pimblett
Submission-oriented finisher with strong positional awareness in scrambles. Most effective when converting chaos into back control or dominant top positions. Striking output has increased, though defensive gaps remain, particularly against sustained pressure and leg-kick damage.
Key Factors
- Five-round experience favors Gaethje.
- Pimblett’s highest success rate occurs in early grappling exchanges.
- Central matchup variable: Gaethje’s pressure striking vs. Pimblett’s submission chains.
- Cardio and damage accumulation become increasingly relevant after Round 2.
Fight Dynamics
Extended striking exchanges favor Gaethje through volume, leg damage, and positional control. Pimblett’s win condition requires initiating clinches, forcing scrambles, and securing dominant grappling positions.
Early rounds statistically favor Pimblett’s submission probability. From the midpoint onward, Gaethje’s pace, durability, and cumulative damage trend upward in expected effectiveness.
Predictions & Betting Analysis
Primary Outcomes
- Gaethje — KO/TKO or Decision
Likely scenario involves progressive leg damage, reduced mobility, and late-round control. - Pimblett — Submission
Most plausible via early scramble or transition following an exchange.
Market-Based Betting Angles
- Gaethje by KO/TKO or Decision — value underdog position
- Pimblett by Submission — stylistic outcome play
- Fight Does Not Go the Distance — both fighters show high finish dependency
- Over 1.5 Rounds — early grappling attempts unlikely to resolve immediately
Betting Market Overview
Current lines list Pimblett as the favorite at approximately −230 to −240 (implied probability ~67–70%).
Gaethje is priced near +190 to +205, indicating a discounted probability relative to experience and late-fight efficiency.
Final Assessment
Early phases favor Pimblett due to grappling initiative and submission threat. Fight extension beyond the midpoint increasingly favors Gaethje through pace, damage accumulation, and experience.
My prediction for the Gaethje – Pimblett fight. I think it’s worth taking a risk and betting on the underdog. For example, a stoppage from the American after the halfway point. Although the likelihood that Paddy will not only take down Justin but also choke him out is also quite high.
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