UFC on ESPN 73 — December 13, 2025
UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
[#5 FLW | #3 UFC] Brandon Royval (17–8–0) vs. [#9 FLW | #6 UFC] Manel Kape (21–7–0)
Stylistic Breakdown
Brandon Royval
A dynamic southpaw known for his unpredictable scrambles and high-level grappling. With nine career submissions, Royval is at his most dangerous on the ground and thrives in chaotic exchanges. His cardio and pace give him an edge in longer fights, though he has shown vulnerability when opponents can control the tempo and maintain positional discipline.
Manel Kape
A powerful and accurate striker with elite speed, sharp boxing, and proven finishing ability. Kape’s stand-up presents a real threat early, as he often capitalizes on defensive lapses. While his takedown defense has improved, extended grappling sequences could still put him at risk against a submission specialist like Royval.
Key Factors
- Multiple postponements earlier in 2025 have built anticipation, with both fighters entering this bout seeking divisional momentum.
- Royval aims to re-establish himself as a title contender after recent setbacks.
- Kape sees this matchup as an opportunity to break into the elite tier of the flyweight rankings.
Fight Dynamics
If the fight stays standing, Kape likely holds the advantage with superior timing and power. However, should Royval create scrambles or drag the fight to the mat, his submission threat becomes a major equalizer. Over five rounds, Royval’s pace and grappling variety may begin to wear down Kape, but Kape’s striking gives him consistent finishing potential, especially early.
Predictions & Betting Insights
Most Likely Outcomes
- Brandon Royval – Submission or Decision
Best scenario for Royval involves extended grappling exchanges and late-round control. - Manel Kape – Decision
If Kape manages distance, avoids scrambles, and dictates striking tempo, a decision win is highly plausible.
Recommended Bets
- Royval by Submission or Decision (value pick)
- Kape by Decision (alternative scenario)
- Fight Goes the Distance — both fighters have durability and technical discipline
- No Early Finish (Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 Rounds) — stylistic matchup leans toward a drawn-out fight
Overall Win Probability:
Brandon Royval: 64%
Manel Kape: 33%
Draw/NC: 3%
Final Verdict
This is a high-level, competitive flyweight main event likely to go all five rounds. Royval’s grappling and pace make him the slight favorite in extended exchanges, while Kape’s striking threats give him the better early finishing upside. Overall, Royval by Submission or Decision remains the most probable outcome, though Kape’s path to victory through controlled striking is a very real scenario.
Most Probable Scenario:
Royval wins via Submission (Round 3–5) or Decision
Secondary Scenario:
Kape wins via Decision if he maintains distance and avoids scrambles.
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