Tom Aspinall (C) vs Ciryl Gane
Background
A blockbuster encounter headlines UFC 321 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi as the heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, defends his belt for the first time against Ciryl Gane.
This will be Aspinall’s first defence after claiming the title in June, following Jon Jones’ retirement. He had previously won eight of his nine fights in the UFC, with each victory coming via either submission or KO.
Aspinall’s only loss was also in contentious fashion, as he injured his medial collateral ligament after just 15 seconds of his first fight with Curtis Blaydes.
As for Gane, this will be his second shot at UFC gold after his submission loss to Jon Jones in March 2023. A controversial victory over Aleksandar Volkov last year has given him another opportunity, one that ‘Bon Gamin’ will be desperate to take.
Gane has showcased his knockout power in the past with victories over Tai Tuivasa and Serghei Spivac but is also very efficient in the clinch, something that may put the champion on notice…
Fighting Styles
The champion has an ideal fighting style for the heavyweight division, with a powerful boxing and MMA foundation which allows him to fire off rapid overhands and leg kicks.
Aspinall is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which makes him a huge grappling threat, something that Gane will have to watch out for if the fight goes to the ground.
Similarly, Gane is also a very accomplished striker with a background in Muay Thai, which allows him outstanding mobility for a heavyweight in the Octagon.
Gane prefers to keep his fights standing up and doesn’t like to exert too much energy on the ground, as noted by his lack of a submission win in the UFC.
His ground game is something that Aspinall could exploit, just like Jon Jones did when securing a first-round submission victory via a guillotine choke in 2023.
Gane will be expecting Aspinall to start quickly, with the champion having the shortest average fight length in UFC history at just two minutes and two seconds. And to counter this, he will be trying to keep his distance with technical jabs and sharp leg kicks.
Future
The heavyweight division may be one of the least competitive in the UFC, but there are still a host of contenders vying for a future shot at the title.
On the undercard of UFC 321 Alexander Volkov will face off against Jailton Almeida in a bout that will surely determine the next number one contender for the heavyweight gold.
Both Aspinall and Gane have previously defeated Volkov, although it could be argued that he has recently become a more accomplished fighter. As for Almeida, the Brazilian would offer a different threat with a heavy grappling style.
Elsewhere in the division, Aspinall’s training partners Ante Delija and Mick Parkin are climbing up the rankings, with the pair ranked tenth and 13th, respectively.
So perhaps not as competitive as other divisions, but both Aspinall and Gane know that there will be plenty of willing opponents desperate to get their hands on the title…
Prediction
Although Gane hasn’t been overly impressive in his recent bouts, you can never rule him out.
That being said, I still expect Aspinall to record a dominant victory and retain his belt here due to his more versatile skillset.
I expect Gane to be cautious in the first round, keeping his distance and targeting the legs of Aspinall, while also firing jabs from behind a tight guard.
However, early in the second round I think Aspinall will secure a takedown and overpower Gane on the ground, eventually securing a submission victory.
Gane will be trying to lure Aspinall into overcommitting, but I don’t think his wish will be granted, and the champion’s grappling skills might eventually prove to be too much.
Tom Aspinall defends his UFC heavyweight title against Ciryl Gane 25 October at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.
My name is Jack Latham.
I am 20 years old and am currently studying Sports Journalism at the University of Chester.
I became interested in combat sports, particularly MMA, in the lockdown period and have followed it closely ever since.
I have previously created my own website titled ‘Combat Corner,’ where I produce MMA content.