Oct 25, 2025 / Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Current Fighter Status
Alexander Volkov (#4 HW per FightMatrix / #2 UFC):
- Record: 38–11–0
- Experience: 49 professional bouts; moderate activity level; last fight in 2024
- Strengths: Powerful striking, height (201 cm), 203 cm reach, extensive top-10 UFC experience
- Weaknesses: Occasional takedown defense issues; reduced footwork speed compared to younger opponents
Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida (#6 HW per FightMatrix / #5 UFC):
- Record: 22–3–0
- Experience: 25 professional bouts; highly active; recent fights in 2024–2025
- Strengths: Elite grappling (BJJ black belt), high takedown accuracy, excellent cardio
- Weaknesses: Less experience against elite-tier opposition; striking less destructive than Volkov’s
Key Fight Factors
- Grappling vs. Striking:
Almeida will aim to take the fight to the ground, where he holds a clear advantage. Volkov must control distance using his height and reach to keep the fight standing. - Pace & Activity:
Almeida is significantly more active and ~10 years younger—this could be decisive in later rounds. - Big-Fight Experience:
Volkov has faced elite competition (Overeem, Gane, Aspinall, Blaydes), giving him mental resilience. However, Almeida has convincingly beaten top-15 names (e.g., Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes).
Result Prediction
- Most Likely Scenario: Almeida will aggressively pursue takedowns early. If Volkov can defend and keep the fight standing, he holds a viable path to victory via decision or mid-fight KO. If Almeida successfully secures takedowns and establishes top control, a submission or dominant decision becomes highly probable.
- Most Probable Outcome: Jailton Almeida wins by submission or decision (estimated 60–65% likelihood based on stylistic matchup and activity trends).
- Underdog Path: Volkov remains dangerous on the feet and can win via KO/TKO or decision—but only if he neutralizes Almeida’s grappling and avoids the fence.
Recommended Bets (subject to odds from ≥3 bookmakers)
- Primary Bet: Jailton Almeida to win — strong value if odds exceed 1.80 (current market: ~1.56).
- Secondary Bet: Fight ends on the ground — includes submission or decision following significant ground control.
- High-Risk Bet: Almeida by submission — typical odds range 3.50–4.50; justified given his 13 submission wins and Volkov’s vulnerability to high-level grappling.
- Avoid: Volkov by KO/TKO — statistically unlikely unless Almeida overcommits and leaves himself exposed.
- Odds Availability: Confirmed from ≥3 bookmakers (e.g., Almeida at 1.56, Volkov at 2.50).
________________________________________
Stay tuned to FightMatrix.com for more updates and analyses.
MMA Promoter | Event Organizer | Analyst
Founder & President of Real Fight Promotion (RFP) – one of the longest-running and most recognized MMA organizations in Ukraine. Organizer of 100+ MMA events. Contributor, analyst, and Trusted Promoter collaborating with leading global MMA platforms.