On Sat, Oct 25 at 2:00 PM EDT, UFC 321 – Aspinall vs Gane will take place in Etihad Arena, Yas Island, UAE. The main event will feature (C) [#2 HW] Tom Aspinall taking on [#1 HW] Ciryl Gane for the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship. Aspinall, the former interim title holder, was promoted to undisputed champion when the former champ Jon Jones announced his retirement.
You may wonder why Cyril Gane is ranked higher than the champion; the likely reason is his recent activity – or rather, Aspinall’s inactivity. As Tom Aspinall has not stepped into the Octagon for over a year, his FightMatrix.com rating has started to decay, putting him just slightly below the more recently active Gane. If we examine other rating formulas, Elo K-170 and Elo Modified also have Gane slightly ahead of Aspinall, while Glicko-1 and WHR systems give the edge to Tom.
Read on for the breakdown of the opponents careers, and our prediction for this exciting matchup. And if you would like to place a wager on this fight, Massachusetts sports betting sites are ready to accept your bet.
Tom Aspinall
Tom Aspinall (15-3, 8-1 UFC) is an English fighter hailing from Manchester, UK. He started out his career in the UK regional leagues, and was signed to the UFC after a stint with Cage Warriors. Aspinall won his first five UFC fights, all by first or second round finish. He currently holds the record for the shortest average UFC fight (five fights minimum), clocking in at 2:02 average fight time. His only loss in the promotion was a due to a freak knee injury Tom suffered in his first matchup with Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall rebounded with another first round TKO finish over Marcin Tybura, after which he received an interim title shot against Sergei Pavlovich, due to Jon Jones’ injuries and inactivity.
Aspinall made short work of Pavlovich with yet another first-round knockout, then defended the interim title in a rematch with Blaydes. While a matchup with Jon Jones was long discussed by the UFC brass, Jones made a decision to retire from the sport, which may have had something to do with his most recent run-in with the law in Albuquerque. Though just two weeks later Jones announced that he is no longer retiring, and all charges stemming from the above-mentioned incident have been dropped, it is unclear when or whether Jones will return to the UFC, and who his next opponent will be if he does return. We can only hope that he gets to face the winner of Gane vs Aspinall some time in 2026.
Cyril Gane
Cyril Gane (13-2, 10-2 UFC) is a French kickboxer and mixed martial artist. Gane has spent most of his MMA career in the UFC, getting signed with the big league promotion after just 3 professional fights. This will be Gane’s third shot at the UFC gold. He first fought Francis Ngannou for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in 2022, losing a unanimous though slightly controversial decision mainly due to Ngannou’s top control. After only one win against Tai Tuivasa, Gane was rewarded with another shot at the vacant championship against Jon Jones in what was Jones’ first fight at heavyweight. Despite a long layoff and moving up in weight, Jones made light work of Gane, easily taking him down and finishing him in the first round with a guillotine choke.
Gane’s next fight was a TKO win vs Serghei Spivak; he then took on Alexander Volkov in a rematch and won a split decision, the outcome of which many fans disagreed with. The legitimacy of Cyrill getting another title shot is questionable. However given the state of UFC’s heavyweight division, there is no one else in the Top 10 who would make more sense. Gane is ranked #1 by FightMatrix and #1 contender by UFC’s own official ranking; and the champ facing the #1 contender is how things should work, even if the contender tried and failed to capture the gold on two other occasions.
Prediction
Cyril Gane may well be the top striker in today’s MMA heavyweight division. He’s took out UFC’s knockout king Derrick Lewis, and even mighty Francis Ngannou had to resort to wrestling Gane to squeak out a close decision. Gane’s ground game however is a glaring gap in his skillset, as is his takedown defense – as illustrated by how easily Jones took him down and submitted him; or by the fact that he was taken down multiple times by Ngannou, a fighter not know for his grappling.
Tom Aspinall on the other hand is a very well rounded fighter, even if he prefers to knock out most of his opponents. He may try it with Gane as well, but this is a risky game. If Aspinall fights smart, he will be looking to take this fight to the ground as quickly as possible, and look for a submission. My prediction is that this will play out similar to Gane vs Jones; Cyril’s ground game as well as his motivation in the Octagon seem to be lacking to take him to the championship level.