Both parlays in the green for the year.. let’s see if we can keep this going!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
2025 Hit Rate: 6 of 12 (50.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 30.0%, WHR: 52.1% – Profit/Loss: +$1,220.04
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one bet, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
2025 Hit Rate: 5 of 7 (71.4%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 57.6%, WHR: 77.6% – Profit/Loss: +$181.25
Other things to consider….
- WHR referenced in this post is fighter age-adjusted using a formula driven by previous results. This is not “vanilla” WHR.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the “juice”.
- Our odds are composite odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- FM Agree – If YES, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog pick is indeed the underdog and the safe pick is the favorite.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Profit/Loss is based on $100 bet per parlay.
- If a fight is scrapped, I will adjust the profit if the parlay cashes.