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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Rodrigues (02-15-2025)

Posted on February 10, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#10][#9UFC] Jared Cannonier (17-8-0, +152) vs. [#25][#21UFC] Gregory Rodrigues (16-5-0, -184)
Jared Cannonier is the All-Time #24 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)
2024-06-08: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 4
2023-06-17: W vs. [*] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 48-46)

Last 3 Fights: Gregory Rodrigues (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#68MW] Christian Leroy Duncan (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#41MW] Brad Tavares (20-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2023-08-19: W vs. [#160MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-10-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:43 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gregory Rodrigues -184 62.01%
Elo K170 Jared Cannonier 1959.16 +106.65 64.88%
Elo Modified Jared Cannonier 1924.11 +33.41 54.79%
Glicko-1 Jared Cannonier 1961.48 +15.14 52.18%
WHR Jared Cannonier 1865.10 +51.89 57.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Cannonier 175, Gregory Rodrigues 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#16][#12UFC] Calvin Kattar (23-8-0, +313) vs. [#29][#19UFC] Youssef Zalal (16-5-1, -417)
Calvin Kattar is the All-Time #38 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Calvin Kattar (0-3-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4FW] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-10-29: L vs. [#7FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:08 of round 2
2022-06-18: L vs. [#10FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Youssef Zalal (3-0-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#73FW] Jack Shore (17-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:59 of round 2
2024-08-10: W vs. [#183FW] Jarno Errens (14-6-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:52 of round 1
2024-03-23: W vs. [#55FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Youssef Zalal -417 76.91%
Elo K170 Calvin Kattar 1874.77 +91.45 62.87%
Elo Modified Calvin Kattar 1863.66 +74.96 60.62%
Glicko-1 Calvin Kattar 1913.70 +39.14 55.61%
WHR Youssef Zalal 1773.62 +19.24 52.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Calvin Kattar 308, Youssef Zalal 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#68][#35UFC] Ismael Bonfim (20-4-0, -148) vs. [*] Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-1, +121)

Last 3 Fights: Ismael Bonfim (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#298LW] Vinc Pichel (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#23LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-3-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [#159LW] Terrance McKinney (16-7-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 2:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nazim Sadykhov (2-0-1)
2023-11-11: D vs. [#213LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-5-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-07-15: W vs. [#159LW] Terrance McKinney (16-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:07 of round 2
2023-02-18: W vs. [#212WW] Evan Elder (9-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 0:38 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ismael Bonfim -148 56.87%
Elo K170 Ismael Bonfim 1858.94 +287.23 83.93%
Elo Modified Ismael Bonfim 1850.07 +246.48 80.52%
Glicko-1 Ismael Bonfim 1894.65 +260.64 81.77%
WHR Ismael Bonfim 1823.27 +239.80 79.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ismael Bonfim 287, Nazim Sadykhov 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#251] Jose Delgado (8-1-0, -245) vs. [#416][#79UFC] Connor Matthews (8-2-0, +196)

Last 3 Fights: Jose Delgado (3-0-0)
2024-08-13: W vs. [#627FW] Ernie Juarez (7-3-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 1:25 of round 2
2024-07-12: W vs. [#1581FW] Joao Lucas Faria (7-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1
2024-04-27: W vs. [#1681FW] Alberto Romo (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 0:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Connor Matthews (2-1-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#522LW] Dennis Buzukja (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:22 of round 3
2023-10-10: W vs. [*] Jair Farias (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-15: W vs. [#74BW] Andrew Cruz (9-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jose Delgado -245 67.76%
Elo K170 Jose Delgado 1512.36 +185.61 74.43%
Elo Modified Jose Delgado 1544.22 +184.01 74.26%
Glicko-1 Jose Delgado 1555.15 +169.17 72.59%
WHR Jose Delgado 1441.29 +77.02 60.91%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Delgado 186, Connor Matthews 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#56][#40UFC] Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0, -284) vs. [#171][#65UFC] Dylan Budka (7-4-0, +225)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#39MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-18-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
2024-03-23: W vs. [#158MW] A.J. Dobson (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 1
2023-05-20: L vs. [#19MW] Anthony Hernandez (13-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Dylan Budka (1-2-0)
2024-09-07: L vs. [#55MW] Andre Petroski (12-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-06: L vs. [#58MW] Cesar Almeida (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 2
2023-09-05: W vs. [#181MW] Chad Hanekom (10-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edmen Shahbazyan -284 70.61%
Elo K170 Edmen Shahbazyan 1547.69 +247.25 80.59%
Elo Modified Edmen Shahbazyan 1584.54 +197.85 75.75%
Glicko-1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1610.40 +253.41 81.14%
WHR Edmen Shahbazyan 1553.14 +223.91 78.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan 175, Dylan Budka 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#47][#34UFC] Rodolfo Vieira (10-2-0, -217) vs. [#55][#39UFC] Andre Petroski (12-3-0, +176)

Last 3 Fights: Rodolfo Vieira (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#84MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2023-04-29: W vs. [#96MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:28 of round 2
2022-06-25: L vs. [#23MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Petroski (2-1-0)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#171MW] Dylan Budka (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#121MW] Josh Fremd (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#51MW] Jacob Malkoun (8-3-0) via TKO (Soccer Kick to the Body) in 0:39 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rodolfo Vieira -217 65.38%
Elo K170 Rodolfo Vieira 1719.28 +88.00 62.40%
Elo Modified Rodolfo Vieira 1760.27 +98.79 63.84%
Glicko-1 Rodolfo Vieira 1783.08 +160.47 71.58%
WHR Rodolfo Vieira 1748.63 +151.86 70.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rodolfo Vieira 371, Andre Petroski 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#12][#11UFC] Jacqueline Cavalcanti (8-1-0, -409) vs. [#55] Julia Avila (9-3-0, +305)

Last 3 Fights: Jacqueline Cavalcanti (3-0-0)
2024-09-28: W vs. [#13BW] Nora Cornolle (8-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#29BW] Josiane Nunes (10-3-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#30FW] Zarah Fairn (6-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Avila (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#15BW] Miesha Tate (20-9-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 1:15 of round 3
2021-06-26: W vs. [#49FLY] Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 3
2020-09-12: L vs. [NA] Sijara Eubanks (7-7-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jacqueline Cavalcanti -409 76.49%
Elo K170 Jacqueline Cavalcanti 1557.18 +191.40 75.06%
Elo Modified Jacqueline Cavalcanti 1499.83 +72.55 60.29%
Glicko-1 Jacqueline Cavalcanti 1459.96 +75.21 60.66%
WHR Jacqueline Cavalcanti 1451.49 +98.18 63.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jacqueline Cavalcanti 140, Julia Avila 441
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#68][#40UFC] Vince Morales (16-8-0, +186) vs. [#247] Elijah Smith (7-1-0, -231)

Last 3 Fights: Vince Morales (2-1-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#33BW] Taylor Lapilus (21-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-30: W vs. [#150BW] Hunter Azure (12-4-0) via Submission (Peruvian Necktie) in 4:06 of round 3
2024-05-24: W vs. [#456FW] Luis Guerrero (13-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Elijah Smith (3-0-0)
2024-09-17: W vs. [#359FLY] Aaron Tau (9-1-0) via UD ()
2024-06-16: W vs. [#875BW] Josh Walker (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:44 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [NA] Jacob Kreitel (3-7-0) via TKO in 0:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Elijah Smith -231 66.61%
Elo K170 Vince Morales 1654.10 +171.75 72.88%
Elo Modified Vince Morales 1662.44 +174.97 73.25%
Glicko-1 Vince Morales 1716.61 +228.67 78.86%
WHR Vince Morales 1650.54 +253.11 81.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vince Morales 140, Elijah Smith 151
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#63][#21UFC] Dontale Mayes (11-8-0, +144) vs. [#80][#24UFC] Valter Walker (12-1-0, -176)

Last 3 Fights: Dontale Mayes (1-2-0)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#31HW+] Shamil Gaziev (14-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#150LHW] Caio Machado (8-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#34HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Valter Walker (2-1-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#113HW+] Junior Tafa (6-3-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 4:52 of round 1
2024-04-06: L vs. [#124HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (9-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-02: W vs. [#138HW+] Alex Nicholson (20-12-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:50 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valter Walker -176 60.87%
Elo K170 Valter Walker 1519.86 +51.82 57.40%
Elo Modified Valter Walker 1550.84 +31.96 54.59%
Glicko-1 Valter Walker 1571.54 +46.63 56.67%
WHR Valter Walker 1513.19 +61.60 58.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dontale Mayes 196, Valter Walker 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#39][#21UFC] Rafael Estevam (12-0-0, -354) vs. [#66][#30UFC] Jesus Santos Aguilar (11-2-0, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Estevam (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#17FLY] Charles Johnson (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-27: W vs. [*] Joao Elias (17-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:25 of round 2
2021-07-18: W vs. [#934FW] Filipe Esteves (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jesus Santos Aguilar (3-0-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#303FLY] Stewart Nicoll (8-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2024-02-24: W vs. [#342FW] Mateus Mendonca (11-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#585FLY] Shannon Ross (12-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rafael Estevam -354 74.41%
Elo K170 Rafael Estevam 1713.20 +55.59 57.93%
Elo Modified Rafael Estevam 1724.49 +84.13 61.88%
Glicko-1 Rafael Estevam 1783.38 +126.25 67.41%
WHR Rafael Estevam 1757.05 +173.02 73.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Estevam 455, Jesus Santos Aguilar 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#54][#29UFC] Jared Gordon (20-7-0, -180) vs. [#149][#61UFC] Kaue Fernandes (9-2-0, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#38LW] Nasrat Haqparast (17-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2023-11-11: W vs. [*] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2023-04-22: NC vs. [#29LW] Bobby Green (32-16-1)

Last 3 Fights: Kaue Fernandes (2-1-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#506LW] Mohammad Yahya (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2023-11-04: L vs. [#77LW] Marc Diakiese (18-7-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2023-03-10: W vs. [#164WW] Felipe Douglas (22-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jared Gordon -180 61.26%
Elo K170 Jared Gordon 1745.37 +187.10 74.59%
Elo Modified Jared Gordon 1780.67 +129.16 67.78%
Glicko-1 Jared Gordon 1811.18 +120.01 66.61%
WHR Jared Gordon 1755.03 +75.63 60.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Gordon 238, Kaue Fernandes 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#13][#13UFC] Angela Hill (17-14-0, -130) vs. [#17][#17UFC] Ketlen Souza (15-4-0, +107)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#8SW] Tabatha Ricci (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#34SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
2023-11-04: W vs. [#14SW] Denise Gomes (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Souza (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#44SW] Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:02 of round 1
2024-04-27: W vs. [#126SW] Marnic Mann (6-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#15FLY] Karine Silva (18-5-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Angela Hill -130 53.91%
Elo K170 Ketlen Souza 1559.33 +11.94 51.72%
Elo Modified Angela Hill 1584.48 +16.79 52.41%
Glicko-1 Angela Hill 1596.15 +38.43 55.51%
WHR Angela Hill 1530.98 +24.61 53.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 175, Ketlen Souza 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Angela Hill leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#34][#24UFC] Kalinn Williams (15-3-0, +183) vs. [#69][#42UFC] Gabriel Bonfim (16-1-0, -226)

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (2-1-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#74WW] Carlston Harris (19-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:30 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#364LW] Rolando Bedoya (14-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#27WW] Randy Brown (19-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Bonfim (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#122WW] Ange Loosa (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#31WW] Nicolas Dalby (23-6-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:33 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#156WW] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gabriel Bonfim -226 66.23%
Elo K170 Kalinn Williams 1865.48 +78.05 61.05%
Elo Modified Kalinn Williams 1849.89 +67.59 59.61%
Glicko-1 Kalinn Williams 1912.97 +88.28 62.44%
WHR Gabriel Bonfim 1788.65 +38.56 55.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kalinn Williams 273, Gabriel Bonfim 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Jared Cannonier
Highest Stored DD Rating: Jared Cannonier
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2025-2-9

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