In every MMA match, there are favorites, and there are underdogs. And it won’t take anyone to tell you that favorites are fighters who stand a higher chance of winning. But do they win all the time? Of course not.
Regular gamblers will understand this subject matter a bit more because favorites and underdogs are reflected in betting odds. As a rule of thumb – the higher a fighter’s chances of winning, the lower the fighter’s odds. So, if only they could know when the favorites will win so that they can stack those bets on higher odds in Casino Lemon. That would be great, wouldn’t it?
Well, we don’t have a sure way of knowing when the favourite or underdog will win – that’s impossible. But we can look at it from a statistical perspective. Read on and enjoy!
First, how are favorites decided? Well, it is not based on one metric. Here are some of the key factors that determine who will be the favourite of MMA bouts:
Some other less important things that are also considered are coaching staff, injury records, and even home advantage. Yes, fighters who fight in their home city may have a little upper hand. Apart from the crowd being in their favour, they are also subjected to less stress of travelling, getting used to the altitude, and settling down generally.
These factors determine the favourite and ‘how much of a favourite’ a fighter will be over their opponent.
We used the UFC as a case study since it is the leading MMA organization. And looking at a sample size of 500+ fights, 65% of favorites win their fight.
However, there is more to this stat. Aside from being heavily inclined to win, there is also a place of how ‘strong’ the chances of winning a fighter are, and this is reflected in the gap in both fighter’s odds. When there is a huge gap, the win rate of favorites bumps to as high as 80%.
So in summary, being a favourite is not enough. Rather, you also have to assess how much of a favourite a fighter is, compared to the underdog. The larger the gap, the better it is for the favoured fighter.
Using the UFC as a case study again, certain divisions have an inclination towards favorites than others. The women’s featherweight division (if it is not eventually abolished by Dana White) has seen the favorites win their bouts more often. After that, the men’s Flyweight, Bantamweight, and Welterweight are also divisions where favorites win frequently. Check and observe by yourself!
Here are some interesting facts you should know as they have become a form of trend:
Note that these facts are coined from the number one MMA organization, UFC, but they can also apply to other promotions.
If you didn’t pay attention to these metrics, you probably won’t know it. But we’ve brought it to your attention now; try to observe it when you’re watching your next set of fights.
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