Introducing the WHR Underdog Parlay!

In terms of consistency, predictability, and sensitivity, the WHR rating system is probably the best foundation for a combat sports rating system.  We have WHR-based ratings available on our ranking pages, and you can read more about it here.

It has been a while since we posted an original gambling-related article, so I thought I’d use the WHR system to provide a parlay for this weekend’s UFC card, listing the fighters that are betting underdogs, that are favored by WHR.  However, there are several things to consider:

• Only bouts with the following criteria are considered:
  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  Unblemished records have no known “ceiling”.
• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major bookmakers.
• There may be “better” bets available.  In other words, a slight betting favorite that is a HUGE WHR favorite.  Perhaps in future post(s), we rank the best bets regardless.. a WHR “Best Bets” parlay.
• This is not “plain jane” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.  To prevent confusion, I will not list fights in which the underdog has negative odds.  In this case, the fights are so close that the underdog & favorite usually vary between books anyway.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.

UFC 299 WHR Underdog Parlay

So, what this tells us, is that based on WHR win probability, this parlay is about 7x more likely to hit than the most recent odds imply, with Burns being the most attractive single bet.

As far as the entire card goes, Jack Della Maddalena is pretty far ahead of the pack as the “worst bet”, with Gilbert Burns his opponent, obviously the “best bet”.