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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez (07-08-2023)

Posted on July 3, 2023 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#3DD/#4P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (25-2-0, -446) vs. [#3] Yair Rodriguez (15-3-0, +320)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Yair Rodriguez is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (2-1-0)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#2P4P] Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#2FW] Max Holloway (24-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#9FW] Chan Sung Jung (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#7FW] Josh Emmett (18-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:19 of round 2
2022-07-16: W vs. [#6FW] Brian Ortega (15-3-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
2021-11-13: L vs. [#2FW] Max Holloway (24-7-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -446 77.42%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2348.27 +196.57 71.05%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2286.57 +192.90 69.94%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2379.20 +203.91 76.38%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2229.99 +224.49 73.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 147, Yair Rodriguez 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Volkanovski leads 5-2
.

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#1DD/#5P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-6-2, -199) vs. [#3] Alexandre Pantoja (25-5-0, +162)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #11 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (2-1-0)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#2FLY] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-07-30: W vs. [#5FLY] Kai Kara-France (24-11-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 4:34 of round 3
2022-01-22: L vs. [#2FLY] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#30FLY] Alex Perez (24-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2021-08-21: W vs. [#6FLY] Brandon Royval (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 2
2021-02-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Manel Kape (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brandon Moreno -199 63.55%
Elo K170 Brandon Moreno 2152.39 +201.01 71.47%
Elo Modified Brandon Moreno 2105.28 +183.70 69.08%
Glicko-1 Brandon Moreno 2200.56 +198.84 75.86%
WHR Brandon Moreno 2017.75 +88.98 60.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 168, Alexandre Pantoja 343
Previous Match-up Record: Alexandre Pantoja leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 5-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#134] Bo Nickal (4-0-0, -1389) vs. [#176] Tresean Gore (4-2-0, +752)

Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#187MW] Jamie Pickett (13-9-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1
2022-09-27: W vs. [#389MW] Donovan Beard (7-3-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 0:52 of round 1
2022-08-09: W vs. [#505MW] Zachary Borrego (5-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tresean Gore (1-2-0)
2022-10-29: W vs. [#140MW] Josh Fremd (10-4-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:49 of round 2
2022-07-09: L vs. [#160MW] Cody Brundage (8-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:50 of round 1
2022-02-05: L vs. [#108WW] Bryan Battle (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bo Nickal -1389 88.82%
Elo K170 Tresean Gore 1398.15 +2.07 50.24%
Elo Modified Bo Nickal 1541.16 +104.92 61.29%
Glicko-1 Bo Nickal 1437.05 +9.78 51.41%
WHR Tresean Gore 1408.09 +69.43 57.86%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bo Nickal 126, Tresean Gore 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#3] Robert Whittaker (24-6-0, -406) vs. [#8] Dricus Du Plessis (19-2-0, +296)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#7MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD ()
2022-02-12: L vs. [#1MW/#6DD/#6P4P] Israel Adesanya (24-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2021-04-17: W vs. [#11MW] Kelvin Gastelum (18-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#14MW] Derek Brunson (23-9-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 4:59 of round 2
2022-12-10: W vs. [#24MW] Darren Till (18-5-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:43 of round 3
2022-07-02: W vs. [#40MW] Brad Tavares (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robert Whittaker -406 76.06%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2260.31 +147.24 66.21%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2225.52 +140.61 64.92%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2294.10 +126.31 67.42%
WHR Robert Whittaker 2046.38 +43.04 54.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 308, Dricus Du Plessis 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#13] Dan Hooker (22-12-0, +193) vs. [#27] Jalin Turner (13-6-0, -248)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #46 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (1-2-0)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#55LW] Claudio Puelles (12-4-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-03-19: L vs. [#5FW] Arnold Allen (19-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:33 of round 1
2021-10-30: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#2P4P] Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#11LW] Mateusz Gamrot (22-2-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#77LW] Brad Riddell (10-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:45 of round 1
2022-03-05: W vs. [#129LW] Jamie Mullarkey (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jalin Turner -248 67.61%
Elo K170 Dan Hooker 1942.08 +188.35 70.27%
Elo Modified Dan Hooker 1912.45 +112.41 62.06%
Glicko-1 Dan Hooker 1940.58 +63.58 59.05%
WHR Dan Hooker 1847.16 +61.82 57.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hooker 238, Jalin Turner 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#76] Niko Price (15-6-0, -267) vs. [#78] Robbie Lawler (29-16-0, +211)
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: L vs. [#47WW] Philip Rowe (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 3
2021-10-02: W vs. [#128WW] Alex Oliveira (25-14-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-10: L vs. [#36WW] Michel Pereira (29-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (1-2-0)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#53WW] Bryan Barberena (18-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2
2021-09-25: W vs. [*] Nick Diaz (26-10-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:44 of round 3
2020-08-29: L vs. [#12WW] Neil Magny (28-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Niko Price -267 69.35%
Elo K170 Robbie Lawler 1868.60 +306.60 80.23%
Elo Modified Robbie Lawler 1841.82 +265.83 76.20%
Glicko-1 Robbie Lawler 1873.74 +282.26 83.55%
WHR Robbie Lawler 1550.75 +13.42 51.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Niko Price 217, Robbie Lawler 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#109] Jesus Santos Aguilar (8-2-0, -199) vs. [#458] Shannon Ross (12-7-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Jesus Santos Aguilar (2-1-0)
2023-02-04: L vs. [#141BW] Tatsuro Taira (13-0-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 4:20 of round 1
2022-08-23: W vs. [#821FW] Erisson Ferreira da Silva (11-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:56 of round 3
2021-07-23: W vs. [#754BW] Cristian Barraza (8-8-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Shannon Ross (1-2-0)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#90FLY] Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2022-08-02: L vs. [#154FLY] Vinicius Salvador (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:22 of round 2
2020-11-27: W vs. [*] Donavon Frelow (6-5-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jesus Santos Aguilar -199 63.19%
Elo K170 Jesus Santos Aguilar 1496.59 +265.12 77.05%
Elo Modified Jesus Santos Aguilar 1511.76 +236.22 73.77%
Glicko-1 Jesus Santos Aguilar 1534.06 +283.22 83.62%
WHR Jesus Santos Aguilar 1454.16 +244.89 75.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jesus Santos Aguilar 154, Shannon Ross 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#20] Yazmin Jauregui (10-0-0, -426) vs. [#26] Denise Gomes (7-2-0, +303)

Last 3 Fights: Yazmin Jauregui (3-0-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#154SW] Istela Nunes (6-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-08-13: W vs. [#54SW] Iasmin Lucindo (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-08-13: W vs. [#42SW] Claire Lopez (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Denise Gomes (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#45SW] Bruna Brasil (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2022-09-17: L vs. [#21SW] Konklak Suphisara (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-08-23: W vs. [#3AW] Rayanne Amanda dos Santos (14-6-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Yazmin Jauregui -426 76.55%
Elo K170 Yazmin Jauregui 1566.70 +135.41 64.99%
Elo Modified Yazmin Jauregui 1596.35 +113.04 62.12%
Glicko-1 Yazmin Jauregui 1599.62 +132.93 68.25%
WHR Yazmin Jauregui 1512.22 +48.05 55.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yazmin Jauregui 217, Denise Gomes 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#175] Esteban Ribovics (11-1-0, -195) vs. [*] Kamuela Kirk (12-5-0, +157)

Last 3 Fights: Esteban Ribovics (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#57LW] Loik Radzhabov (18-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-16: W vs. [#580FW] Thomas Paull (11-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2022-02-12: W vs. [#2008LW] Franco Aranda (6-7-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kamuela Kirk (2-1-0)
2022-03-12: L vs. [#32FW] Damon Jackson (22-5-1) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:42 of round 2
2021-06-05: W vs. [#92FW] Makwan Amirkhani (17-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-05-14: W vs. [*] Daniel Swain (20-11-1) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Esteban Ribovics -195 62.94%
Elo K170 Esteban Ribovics 1559.13 +30.83 53.52%
Elo Modified Esteban Ribovics 1597.11 +20.74 52.27%
Glicko-1 Esteban Ribovics 1641.73 +37.44 55.37%
WHR Esteban Ribovics 1619.37 +107.82 62.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Esteban Ribovics 126, Kamuela Kirk 483
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#45] Marcin Prachnio (16-6-0, +217) vs. [#73] Vitor Petrino (8-0-0, -283)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Prachnio (2-1-0)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#130HW+] William Knight (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-23: L vs. [#20LHW] Philipe Lins (17-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#217LHW] Isaac Villanueva (18-14-0) via KO (Body Kick) in 0:56 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#131LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2022-09-06: W vs. [#118LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 2
2021-09-04: W vs. [*] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (21-9-0) via KO in 3:36 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Vitor Petrino -283 70.07%
Elo K170 Vitor Petrino 1572.28 +30.97 53.53%
Elo Modified Vitor Petrino 1607.08 +25.60 52.80%
Glicko-1 Vitor Petrino 1614.89 +35.28 55.06%
WHR Vitor Petrino 1644.29 +77.24 58.73%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Prachnio 140, Vitor Petrino 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#32] Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1, -109) vs. [#34] Jimmy Crute (12-3-1, -113)

Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (2-0-1)
2023-02-11: D vs. [#34LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-10-15: W vs. [#83LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 1
2022-06-04: W vs. [#205LHW] Askar Mozharov (20-13-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jimmy Crute (0-2-1)
2023-02-11: D vs. [#32LHW] Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2021-12-04: L vs. [#4LHW] Jamahal Hill (13-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1
2021-04-24: L vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (36-18-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jimmy Crute -113 50.42%
Elo K170 Alonzo Menifield 1646.47 +26.03 52.97%
Elo Modified Alonzo Menifield 1700.73 +48.78 55.32%
Glicko-1 Alonzo Menifield 1735.86 +54.30 57.75%
WHR Jimmy Crute 1620.31 +18.27 52.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alonzo Menifield 147, Jimmy Crute 147
Previous Match-up Record: Even: 0-0-1
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alonzo Menifield leads 2-1
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#173] Cameron Saaiman (8-0-0, -442) vs. [#301] Terrence Mitchell (15-2-0, +321)

Last 3 Fights: Cameron Saaiman (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#311BW] Leomana Martinez (10-5-0) via MD (29-26, 28-28, 28-27)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#816BW] Steven Koslow (6-1-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2022-08-23: W vs. [#866BW] Josh Wang Kim (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:52 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Terrence Mitchell (3-0-0)
2023-04-28: W vs. [#1210BW] Christian Alexander (1-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#2321FW] Skyler Schlosser (4-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:00 of round 1
2022-04-15: W vs. [#1018BW] Josh Terry (3-2-0) via DQ in 1:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cameron Saaiman -442 77.44%
Elo K170 Cameron Saaiman 1535.22 +84.55 59.54%
Elo Modified Cameron Saaiman 1513.49 +64.48 57.01%
Glicko-1 Cameron Saaiman 1496.89 +14.45 52.08%
WHR Terrence Mitchell 1501.48 +67.59 57.66%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cameron Saaiman 126, Terrence Mitchell 71
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (130)
[#141] Tatsuro Taira (13-0-0, -915) vs. [#344] Edgar Chairez (10-4-0, +600)

Last 3 Fights: Tatsuro Taira (3-0-0)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#109FLY] Jesus Santos Aguilar (8-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 4:20 of round 1
2022-10-15: W vs. [#80FLY] C.J. Vergara (11-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:19 of round 2
2022-05-14: W vs. [#333FLY] Carlos Candelario (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Edgar Chairez (2-1-0)
2023-03-24: W vs. [#381FLY] Gianni Di Chiara Vazquez (7-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:04 of round 4
2022-11-25: W vs. [#2204BW] Roberto Guerrero (6-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:03 of round 1
2022-08-09: L vs. [#95FLY] Clayton Carpenter (7-0-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tatsuro Taira -915 86.31%
Elo K170 Tatsuro Taira 1767.81 +376.37 84.80%
Elo Modified Tatsuro Taira 1776.92 +374.18 83.72%
Glicko-1 Tatsuro Taira 1833.92 +412.06 91.47%
WHR Tatsuro Taira 1753.21 +389.03 85.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tatsuro Taira 154, Edgar Chairez 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tatsuro Taira leads 1-0
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Stored DD Rating: Brandon Moreno
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Large [****]
Run Date: 2023-7-2

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Current MMA Rankings

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