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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane (03-04-2023)

Posted on February 27, 2023 by Jason

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#2/#7P4P] Ciryl Gane (11-1-0, +134) vs. [*] Jon Jones (26-1-0, -164)
Ciryl Gane is the All-Time #23 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Jon Jones is the All-Time #2 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (2-1-0)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#6HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3
2022-01-22: L vs. [#1HW+/#6DD/#1P4P] Francis Ngannou (17-3-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#11HW+] Derrick Lewis (26-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:11 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#22LHW] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#12LHW] Thiago Santos (22-11-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Smith (36-17-0) via UD (48-44, 48-44, 48-44)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jon Jones -164 59.24%
Elo K170 Jon Jones 2438.73 +311.93 80.61%
Elo Modified Jon Jones 2386.21 +260.59 75.78%
Glicko-1 Jon Jones 2448.68 +226.20 78.62%
WHR Jon Jones 2144.14 +129.00 64.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ciryl Gane 182, Jon Jones 1120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#1P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0, -632) vs. [#8] Alexa Grasso (15-3-0, +427)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#7FLY] Taila Santos (19-2-0) via SD (49-46, 48-47, 47-48)
2021-09-25: W vs. [#10FLY] Lauren Murphy (16-6-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:00 of round 4
2021-04-24: W vs. [#4FLY] Jessica Andrade (24-10-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (3-0-0)
2022-10-15: W vs. [#13FLY] Viviane Araujo (11-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#25FLY] Joanne Wood (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-02-13: W vs. [#12FLY] Maycee Barber (11-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -632 81.97%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 2041.26 +307.69 80.31%
Elo Modified Valentina Shevchenko 1981.35 +231.67 73.38%
Glicko-1 Valentina Shevchenko 1998.06 +268.69 82.45%
WHR Valentina Shevchenko 1953.98 +253.50 76.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 266, Alexa Grasso 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#6] Geoff Neal (15-4-0, +369) vs. [#8] Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0-0, -531)

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (2-1-0)
2022-08-06: W vs. [#10WW] Vicente Luque (21-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2021-12-11: W vs. [#22WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-05-08: L vs. [#12WW] Neil Magny (27-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Shavkat Rakhmonov (3-0-0)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#12WW] Neil Magny (27-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
2022-02-05: W vs. [#93WW] Carlston Harris (17-5-0) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2021-06-26: W vs. [#103WW] Michel Prazeres (27-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shavkat Rakhmonov -531 79.78%
Elo K170 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2103.01 +50.16 55.70%
Elo Modified Shavkat Rakhmonov 2073.94 +85.50 59.25%
Glicko-1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2167.30 +129.29 67.79%
WHR Shavkat Rakhmonov 2117.49 +238.21 74.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 210, Shavkat Rakhmonov 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shavkat Rakhmonov leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#10] Mateusz Gamrot (21-2-0, -198) vs. [#32] Jalin Turner (13-5-0, +159)

Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Gamrot (2-1-0)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#5LW] Beneil Dariush (22-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#11LW] Arman Tsarukyan (19-3-0) via UD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2021-12-18: W vs. [#19LW] Diego Ferreira (17-5-0) via TKO (Submission to Knee to the Body) in 3:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (3-0-0)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#66LW] Brad Riddell (10-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:45 of round 1
2022-03-05: W vs. [#80LW] Jamie Mullarkey (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2
2021-09-25: W vs. [#191LW] Uros Medic (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mateusz Gamrot -198 63.24%
Elo K170 Mateusz Gamrot 2050.25 +267.01 77.20%
Elo Modified Mateusz Gamrot 2048.94 +275.81 76.98%
Glicko-1 Mateusz Gamrot 2118.20 +287.86 83.98%
WHR Mateusz Gamrot 2023.48 +261.06 76.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Gamrot 133, Jalin Turner 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#140] Jamie Pickett (13-8-0, +808) vs. [#226] Bo Nickal (3-0-0, -1691)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Pickett (1-2-0)
2022-09-10: L vs. [#114MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-7-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:52 of round 2
2022-02-19: L vs. [#85MW] Kyle Daukaus (11-4-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2022-01-15: W vs. [#176MW] Joseph Holmes (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2022-09-27: W vs. [#380MW] Donovan Beard (7-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 0:52 of round 1
2022-08-09: W vs. [#418MW] Zachary Borrego (5-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 1
2022-06-03: W vs. [NA] John Noland (0-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bo Nickal -1691 89.55%
Elo K170 Bo Nickal 1318.94 +30.64 53.49%
Elo Modified Bo Nickal 1498.46 +168.07 67.60%
Glicko-1 Bo Nickal 1352.38 +27.40 53.93%
WHR Jamie Pickett 1311.83 +45.33 55.16%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamie Pickett 175, Bo Nickal 158
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#29] Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0, -174) vs. [#112] Trevin Jones (14-9-0, +139)
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (1-2-0)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#4FLY] Kai Kara France (24-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 1
2021-05-22: L vs. [#8BW] Rob Font (19-6-0) via UD (48-47, 50-45, 50-45)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#25BW] Raphael Assuncao (28-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Trevin Jones (0-3-0)
2022-10-01: L vs. [#48BW] Raoni Barcelos (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
2022-03-12: L vs. [#44BW] Javid Basharat (14-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-21: L vs. [#57BW] Saidyokub Kakhramonov (10-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:39 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cody Garbrandt -174 60.28%
Elo K170 Cody Garbrandt 1720.68 +252.60 76.02%
Elo Modified Cody Garbrandt 1724.39 +211.19 71.60%
Glicko-1 Cody Garbrandt 1744.00 +179.96 73.81%
WHR Cody Garbrandt 1595.07 +53.75 56.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Garbrandt 448, Trevin Jones 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#8] Derek Brunson (23-8-0, +180) vs. [#14] Dricus Du Plessis (18-2-0, -230)
Derek Brunson is the All-Time #32 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derek Brunson (2-1-0)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#4MW] Jared Cannonier (16-6-0) via KO (Elbows) in 4:29 of round 2
2021-09-04: W vs. [#23MW] Darren Till (18-5-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 3
2021-03-20: W vs. [#18WW] Kevin Holland (23-9-0) via UD (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#23MW] Darren Till (18-5-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:43 of round 3
2022-07-02: W vs. [#24MW] Brad Tavares (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-10: W vs. [#132WW] Trevin Giles (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dricus Du Plessis -230 66.12%
Elo K170 Derek Brunson 2034.95 +9.54 51.09%
Elo Modified Derek Brunson 2018.35 +14.56 51.59%
Glicko-1 Derek Brunson 2079.52 +10.87 51.57%
WHR Dricus Du Plessis 1957.21 +97.33 60.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derek Brunson 385, Dricus Du Plessis 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#13] Viviane Araujo (11-4-0, +102) vs. [#14] Amanda Ribas (11-3-0, -127)

Last 3 Fights: Viviane Araujo (1-2-0)
2022-10-15: L vs. [#8FLY] Alexa Grasso (15-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-05-14: W vs. [#17FLY] Andrea Lee (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#5FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (1-2-0)
2022-05-14: L vs. [#5FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#10SW] Virna Jandiroba (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#5SW] Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Ribas -127 53.05%
Elo K170 Amanda Ribas 1577.91 +21.56 52.46%
Elo Modified Amanda Ribas 1647.87 +64.14 56.97%
Glicko-1 Amanda Ribas 1644.64 +71.85 60.19%
WHR Amanda Ribas 1618.41 +79.44 58.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Viviane Araujo 140, Amanda Ribas 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#72] Marc-Andre Barriault (15-6-0, -135) vs. [#73] Julian Marquez (9-3-0, +108)

Last 3 Fights: Marc-Andre Barriault (1-2-0)
2022-09-17: L vs. [#48MW] Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3
2022-04-23: W vs. [#131LHW] Jordan Wright (12-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:36 of round 1
2022-02-05: L vs. [#53MW] Chidi Njokuani (22-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (2-1-0)
2022-06-18: L vs. [#42MW] Gregory Rodrigues (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2021-04-10: W vs. [#79MW] Sam Alvey (33-18-1) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:07 of round 2
2021-02-13: W vs. [#145MW] Maki Pitolo (15-10-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:17 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marc-Andre Barriault -135 54.43%
Elo K170 Marc-Andre Barriault 1585.37 +85.98 59.69%
Elo Modified Marc-Andre Barriault 1617.15 +51.35 55.60%
Glicko-1 Marc-Andre Barriault 1655.20 +41.83 55.99%
WHR Julian Marquez 1560.24 +24.41 52.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marc-Andre Barriault 168, Julian Marquez 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#97] Ian Garry (10-0-0, -607) vs. [*] Kenan Song (18-6-0, +403)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#159WW] Gabriel Green (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#372WW] Darian Weeks (5-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-11-06: W vs. [*] Jordan Williams (9-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kenan Song (2-1-0)
2021-03-20: L vs. [#25WW] Max Griffin (19-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2020-02-22: W vs. [*] Callan Potter (19-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2019-08-31: W vs. [*] Derrick Krantz (26-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Garry -607 81.19%
Elo K170 Ian Garry 1688.36 +184.13 69.87%
Elo Modified Ian Garry 1747.24 +207.64 71.28%
Glicko-1 Ian Garry 1747.63 +186.51 74.53%
WHR Ian Garry 1708.99 +198.88 71.27%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 245, Kenan Song 714
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#200] Leomana Martinez (10-3-0, +213) vs. [#235] Cameron Saaiman (7-0-0, -276)

Last 3 Fights: Leomana Martinez (2-1-0)
2022-10-15: W vs. [#237BW] Brandon Davis (14-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#136BW] Ronnie Lawrence (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2021-08-28: W vs. [#206BW] Guido Cannetti (10-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Cameron Saaiman (3-0-0)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#819BW] Steven Koslow (6-1-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2022-08-23: W vs. [#862BW] Josh Wang Kim (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:52 of round 3
2022-06-04: W vs. [#838BW] Sindile Manengela (8-8-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cameron Saaiman -276 69.67%
Elo K170 Leomana Martinez 1492.63 +54.55 56.20%
Elo Modified Cameron Saaiman 1466.44 +9.17 51.00%
Glicko-1 Cameron Saaiman 1494.89 +75.72 60.73%
WHR Cameron Saaiman 1436.26 +47.10 55.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leomana Martinez 140, Cameron Saaiman 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#32] Jessica Penne (14-6-0, +204) vs. [#37] Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0, -262)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (2-1-0)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#14SW] Emily Ducote (12-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#28SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (14-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:32 of round 1
2021-04-17: W vs. [#18SW] Lupita Godinez (8-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2022-05-21: W vs. [#26SW] Polyana Viana (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#89SW] Maria Oliveira (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#2FLY/#10P4P] Manon Fiorot (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tabatha Ricci -262 68.75%
Elo K170 Tabatha Ricci 1402.56 +14.98 51.71%
Elo Modified Tabatha Ricci 1437.49 +57.85 56.30%
Glicko-1 Tabatha Ricci 1413.39 +89.51 62.61%
WHR Tabatha Ricci 1424.17 +89.63 60.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 231, Tabatha Ricci 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#124] DaMon Blackshear (12-4-1, +343) vs. [#178] Farid Basharat (9-0-0, -493)

Last 3 Fights: DaMon Blackshear (2-0-1)
2022-08-13: D vs. [#142FW] Youssef Zalal (11-5-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-05-14: W vs. [#358BW] Josh Smith (10-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:34 of round 3
2021-11-19: W vs. [#1043FW] Deandre Anderson (5-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:33 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Farid Basharat (3-0-0)
2022-09-13: W vs. [#517BW] Allan Begosso (7-2-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#1111FW] Raul Guzman (6-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
2021-07-24: W vs. [#1045FW] Janne Elonen-Kulmala (16-12-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:12 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Farid Basharat -493 78.64%
Elo K170 Farid Basharat 1501.38 +25.06 52.86%
Elo Modified Farid Basharat 1545.84 +5.51 50.60%
Glicko-1 DaMon Blackshear 1546.94 +20.59 52.96%
WHR Farid Basharat 1524.62 +3.08 50.35%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: DaMon Blackshear 203, Farid Basharat 172
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Ciryl Gane
Highest Stored DD Rating: Ciryl Gane
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Ciryl Gane vs. Jon Jones
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Ciryl Gane vs. Jon Jones
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2023-2-26

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