Betting a UFC fight straight up can be a tough task to find value. The best fighters will usually cost a pretty penny to bet straight up. And it’s not like the NFL, where finding a good point spread can lower the juice on a bet.
However, one nice thing about fights, and the sportsbooks that post odds on them, is that there are many different ways to bet on a fight. Looking at the data available by weight class can help provide a better window on where to get the best odds. While weird things can happen, looking at the percentages gives an idea of where to start with doing research.
Betting on Time Props
When it comes to betting on fights, there are plenty of options to place bets without choosing a side. Betting on a fight to go the distance or to be finished before it goes to the judges is a good way to accomplish that. When it comes to UFC history, the heavier weight classes have the best chance of the outcome being determined by the fighters in the cage.
Heavyweights have produced the most stoppages, with 72.6 percent of the UFC’s fights in the division ending by knockout, technical knockout, or submission. Light heavyweight is right behind heavyweight, with 62.4 percent of the fights not reaching the scorecards. On the opposite side of the coin, women’s strawweight has seen the fewest fights being finished.
Only 31.4 percent of women’s strawweight bouts don’t reach the scorecards. Among men’s divisions, flyweight and feather both go to decision 57.7 and 55.5 percent of the time, respectively.
Submissions Are Up in 2022
The UFC has already contested 297 fights through the first half of 2022, and submissions are the biggest uptick the promotion has seen across the board. Thus far this year, 20.2 percent of all UFC fights have ended by submission, which is on pace to be the highest percentage since 2012. The UFC has also seen a marked decline in knockouts this year, tumbling from 33.4 percent in 2021 to 29.6 percent in 2022.
If the current pace holds for knockouts, it would be the lower number since 2019, when 29.5 percent of fights ended that way. UFC has also seen a slight decline in fights ending by decision, falling 1 percent to 49.5.
Don’t Trust the Judges
No matter how confident a bettor is in their ticket, a bet on a fighter to win a bout can be a nightmare when it goes to the scoreboards. Due to each state and country having its own sanctioning body, it is difficult to find consistent judging. Thus when a fight goes to the scorecards, there’s always a chance things get wonky.
There have been 147 fights that have gone to a decision in 2022. Out of those 147 fights, 107 were unanimous decisions.
However, there have been 38 split decisions and two majority decisions this year. Betting on a fight to end in a split or majority decision can offer a much higher payout but involves taking a higher risk.
Research How Long Fights Are
Not every fighter is built to go five rounds. Many fighters don’t spend their career preparing for these fights because they are either overconfident in their abilities, or they don’t climb up the ladder enough to be in the championship or main-event fights. Keeping that in mind can help a bettor find value and learn more about the fighter they are betting on.
Take a Double Chance
Cutting down on risk betting, the UFC can be accomplished by finding a book that offers double chances. While betting on a fighter to win by decision, submission or knockout can pay out a solid value; it doesn’t offer much wiggle room. If you bet on one of those methods, the fighter has to deliver.
Betting a double chance- which offers bettors a number on two of those combined methods- can provide some security. While the price isn’t quite as good as picking one method, there are still opportunities to get odds at plus money when betting underdogs and sometimes even with favorites.