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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall (03-19-2022)

Posted on March 14, 2022 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Alexander Volkov (34-9-0, -130) vs. [#20] Tom Aspinall (11-2-0, +107)
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #32 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (2-1-0)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#12HW+] Marcin Tybura (22-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#3HW+/#10P4P] Ciryl Gane (10-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-02-06: W vs. [#10HW+] Alistair Overeem (47-19-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tom Aspinall (3-0-0)
2021-09-04: W vs. [#22HW+] Sergey Spivak (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2021-02-20: W vs. [#34HW+] Andrei Arlovski (33-20-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:09 of round 2
2020-10-10: W vs. [#263HW+] Alan Baudot (8-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkov -130 53.91%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkov 1996.34 +236.14 74.63%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkov 2016.73 +246.64 74.64%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkov 2085.30 +268.27 82.41%
WHR Alexander Volkov 1920.38 +113.34 62.66%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkov 140, Tom Aspinall 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#11LW] Dan Hooker (21-11-0, -119) vs. [#13] Arnold Allen (17-1-0, -103)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (1-2-0)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#6LW] Islam Makhachev (22-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:25 of round 1
2021-09-25: W vs. [#61LW] Nasrat Haqparast (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#7LW] Michael Chandler (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Arnold Allen (3-0-0)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#20FW] Sodiq Yusuff (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-01-25: W vs. [*] Nik Lentz (30-12-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-07-06: W vs. [*] Gilbert Melendez (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dan Hooker -119 51.71%
Elo K170 Arnold Allen 1985.97 +44.19 55.03%
Elo Modified Arnold Allen 1987.85 +96.49 60.40%
Glicko-1 Arnold Allen 2000.52 +85.90 62.12%
WHR Arnold Allen 1900.23 +104.06 61.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hooker 140, Arnold Allen 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#90] Paddy Pimblett (17-3-0, -400) vs. [#146] Rodrigo Vargas (12-4-0, +300)

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2021-09-04: W vs. [#309LW] Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2021-03-20: W vs. [#861LW] Davide Martinez (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 1
2020-03-20: W vs. [*] Decky Dalton (11-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:51 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Vargas (1-2-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#175LW] Zhu Rong (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#217WW] Brok Weaver (17-6-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 4:02 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [*] Alex da Silva Coelho (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Paddy Pimblett -400 76.19%
Elo K170 Paddy Pimblett 1643.29 +168.50 68.35%
Elo Modified Paddy Pimblett 1678.01 +108.21 61.63%
Glicko-1 Paddy Pimblett 1740.59 +131.13 68.02%
WHR Paddy Pimblett 1681.94 +156.27 67.13%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paddy Pimblett 196, Rodrigo Vargas 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[*] Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1) vs. [*] Takashi Sato (16-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Gunnar Nelson (1-2-0)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#3WW] Gilbert Burns (20-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#7WW] Leon Edwards (19-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-27, 28-29)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#77WW] Alex Oliveira (22-12-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Takashi Sato (1-2-0)
2020-11-28: L vs. [#61WW] Miguel Baeza (10-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:28 of round 2
2020-06-27: W vs. [#154WW] Jason Witt (19-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1
2019-09-07: L vs. [#6WW] Belal Muhammad (20-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:55 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Gunnar Nelson 1821.52 +195.53 70.96%
Elo Modified Gunnar Nelson 1875.03 +255.43 75.36%
Glicko-1 Gunnar Nelson 1949.41 +319.34 86.27%
WHR Gunnar Nelson 1859.47 +319.08 81.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gunnar Nelson 903, Takashi Sato 476
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#33] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7-0, +232) vs. [*] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0, -292)

Last 3 Fights: Shamil Abdurakhimov (1-2-0)
2021-09-25: L vs. [#15HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:23 of round 2
2019-09-07: L vs. [#4HW+] Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-04-20: W vs. [#12HW+] Marcin Tybura (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#64HW+] Maurice Greene (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2019-04-20: W vs. [#106HW+] Marcelo Golm (9-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:06 of round 1
2018-11-24: L vs. [#10HW+] Alistair Overeem (47-19-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sergei Pavlovich -292 71.20%
Elo K170 Sergei Pavlovich 1775.98 +135.80 65.03%
Elo Modified Sergei Pavlovich 1783.44 +125.97 63.45%
Glicko-1 Sergei Pavlovich 1840.42 +165.24 72.13%
WHR Sergei Pavlovich 1707.96 +112.45 62.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shamil Abdurakhimov 175, Sergei Pavlovich 875
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15] Paul Craig (15-4-1, +145) vs. [#17] Nikita Krylov (27-8-0, -175)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (3-0-0)
2021-06-12: W vs. [#14LHW] Jamahal Hill (11-1-0) via Technical Submission (Armbar) in 1:59 of round 1
2020-11-21: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 2
2020-07-25: W vs. [#158LHW] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nikita Krylov (1-2-0)
2021-02-27: L vs. [#7LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#18LHW] Johnny Walker (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#1LHW/#7P4P] Glover Teixeira (33-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nikita Krylov -175 60.92%
Elo K170 Paul Craig 1859.10 +102.02 61.44%
Elo Modified Paul Craig 1867.79 +54.03 55.88%
Glicko-1 Paul Craig 1933.84 +35.51 55.09%
WHR Nikita Krylov 1825.11 +60.02 56.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 280, Nikita Krylov 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Paul Craig leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#23FW] Ilia Topuria (11-0-0, -401) vs. [#87] Jai Herbert (11-3-0, +303)

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2021-07-10: W vs. [#50FW] Ryan Hall (9-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 1
2020-12-05: W vs. [#29FW] Damon Jackson (20-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 1
2020-10-10: W vs. [#188FW] Youssef Zalal (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jai Herbert (1-2-0)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#147LW] Khama Worthy (17-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 1
2021-06-26: L vs. [#20LW] Renato Carneiro (16-5-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 2
2020-07-25: L vs. [#50WW] Francisco Trinaldo (27-8-0) via TKO (Punch) in 1:30 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ilia Topuria -401 76.33%
Elo K170 Ilia Topuria 1818.12 +179.71 69.44%
Elo Modified Ilia Topuria 1831.17 +176.42 68.40%
Glicko-1 Ilia Topuria 1895.55 +222.30 78.24%
WHR Ilia Topuria 1848.71 +258.40 76.51%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 252, Jai Herbert 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#25] Timur Valiev (18-3-0, -178) vs. [#57] Jack Shore (15-0-0, +148)

Last 3 Fights: Timur Valiev (2-1-0)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#48BW] Raoni Barcelos (16-3-0) via MD (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-02-06: W vs. [#913FW] Martin Day (9-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-25)
2020-08-22: L vs. [#80BW] Trevin Jones (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jack Shore (3-0-0)
2021-09-04: W vs. [#320BW] Liudvik Sholinian (9-2-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#75BW] Hunter Azure (9-2-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2020-07-15: W vs. [*] Aaron Phillips (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Timur Valiev -178 61.36%
Elo K170 Timur Valiev 1864.26 +64.80 57.35%
Elo Modified Timur Valiev 1847.60 +86.89 59.40%
Glicko-1 Timur Valiev 1824.37 +58.66 58.36%
WHR Timur Valiev 1724.16 +17.66 52.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Timur Valiev 266, Jack Shore 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#40] Luana Carolina (8-2-0, -120) vs. [#50] Molly McCann (11-4-0, -101)

Last 3 Fights: Luana Carolina (2-1-0)
2021-10-16: W vs. [#22SW] Lupita Godinez (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-05-01: W vs. [#64FLY] Poliana Botelho (8-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-07-18: L vs. [#34FLY] Ariane Lipski (14-7-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Molly McCann (1-2-0)
2021-09-04: W vs. [#88FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#49FLY] Lara Procopio (7-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-07-15: L vs. [#3FLY] Taila Santos (19-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Luana Carolina -120 52.05%
Elo K170 Luana Carolina 1500.22 +117.61 63.12%
Elo Modified Luana Carolina 1507.18 +75.85 58.22%
Glicko-1 Luana Carolina 1452.25 +35.90 55.15%
WHR Luana Carolina 1381.64 +48.66 55.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Luana Carolina 154, Molly McCann 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Molly McCann leads 2-1
.

Flyweight (125)
[#55] Cody Durden (12-3-1, +259) vs. [#65] Muhammad Mokaev (6-0-0, -337)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Durden (1-1-1)
2021-11-20: W vs. [#415BW] Qileng Aori (20-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-12-19: L vs. [*] Jimmy Flick (16-5-0) via Submission (Flying Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2020-08-01: D vs. [*] Chris Gutierrez (17-4-2) via Draw (Unanimous) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Muhammad Mokaev (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2021-09-25: W vs. [#352BW] Blaine ODriscoll (9-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:36 of round 2
2021-06-04: NC vs. [#928BW] Ibragim Navruzov (5-1-1)
2021-03-25: W vs. [#257FLY] Abdul Hussein (7-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muhammad Mokaev -337 73.46%
Elo K170 Cody Durden 1518.85 +75.06 58.49%
Elo Modified Muhammad Mokaev 1519.88 +4.38 50.48%
Glicko-1 Cody Durden 1542.78 +61.58 58.77%
WHR Cody Durden 1455.61 +103.69 61.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Durden 119, Muhammad Mokaev 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#87] Makwan Amirkhani (16-7-0, +112) vs. [#89] Mike Grundy (12-3-0, -137)

Last 3 Fights: Makwan Amirkhani (0-3-0)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#46FW] Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) via KO (Knee) in 0:14 of round 2
2021-06-05: L vs. [#80FW] Kamuela Kirk (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-10-10: L vs. [#27FW] Edson Barboza (22-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Grundy (1-2-0)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#35FW] Lando Vannata (12-5-2) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
2020-07-25: L vs. [#21FW] Movsar Evloev (15-0-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-03-16: W vs. [*] Nad Narimani (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Grundy -137 55.06%
Elo K170 Mike Grundy 1571.34 +86.35 59.74%
Elo Modified Mike Grundy 1658.77 +133.99 64.26%
Glicko-1 Mike Grundy 1676.81 +130.94 68.00%
WHR Mike Grundy 1598.50 +139.11 65.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Makwan Amirkhani 140, Mike Grundy 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[*] Cory McKenna (6-1-0, -225) vs. [#62] Elise Reed (4-1-0, +181)

Last 3 Fights: Cory McKenna (3-0-0)
2020-11-14: W vs. [#40SW] Kay Hansen (7-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-11: W vs. [#38SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-31: W vs. [#180SW] Giulia Chinello (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Elise Reed (2-1-0)
2021-07-24: L vs. [#25FLY] Sijara Eubanks (7-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:49 of round 1
2021-05-29: W vs. [#205SW] Hilarie Rose (5-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:57 of round 2
2020-12-18: W vs. [#119SW] Jillian DeCoursey (4-3-0) via UD (39-37, 39-37, 39-37)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cory McKenna -225 66.04%
Elo K170 Cory McKenna 1486.28 +222.72 73.45%
Elo Modified Cory McKenna 1530.24 +204.57 71.00%
Glicko-1 Cory McKenna 1487.82 +267.24 82.32%
WHR Cory McKenna 1360.52 +170.89 68.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cory McKenna 490, Elise Reed 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[*] Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0, -252) vs. [#100] Vince Morales (11-5-0, +205)

Last 3 Fights: Nathaniel Wood (1-2-0)
2020-10-24: L vs. [#37BW] Casey Kenney (16-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#61BW] John Castaneda (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#45BW] John Dodson (21-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Vince Morales (2-1-0)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#160BW] Louis Smolka (17-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 1
2021-08-07: W vs. [#420BW] Drako Rodriguez (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-05-30: L vs. [*] Chris Gutierrez (17-4-2) via TKO (Leg Kicks) in 4:27 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nathaniel Wood -252 68.58%
Elo K170 Nathaniel Wood 1653.93 +119.22 63.29%
Elo Modified Nathaniel Wood 1683.24 +148.32 65.69%
Glicko-1 Nathaniel Wood 1713.48 +174.74 73.22%
WHR Nathaniel Wood 1613.33 +125.10 63.91%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nathaniel Wood 511, Vince Morales 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alexander Volkov
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexander Volkov
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Dan Hooker vs. Arnold Allen
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2022-3-13

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