UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane 2022

The next big UFC event is just around the corner and will be kicking off the new year in style with a huge main event. UFC 270 will take place on Sunday, January 23rd 2022, at the Honda Center in Anaheim in the United States.

UFC 270 will be headlined by a heavyweight title bout between reigning champ Francis Ngannou vs the undefeated Ciryl Gane. The other big fight of the night to warm fans up will see a flyweight title bout between current champion Brandon Moreno and the challenger Deiveson Figueiredo. Both fights will have fans salivating at the prospect of big titles being put on the line to welcome in the new year with.

However, we’ll be focusing on the first of the two events in this article, the heavyweight clash between the Cameroonian, Francis “The Predator” Ngannou, and his opponent, Frenchman Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane. We’re going to preview the fight, talking a little about the statistics coming into it and try to make some predictions about what we think might happen.

The Stats

This could be one of the closest heavyweight bouts we’ve had for a while, with both fighters being given odds of -110 each, making it a dead heat. You can find your favorite fighter odds at William Hill Canada for this and all the remaining fixtures on the UFC 270 card.

But how do the two fighters stack up against each other in terms of the stats? Let’s take a look first and then discuss later.

Ngannou vs Gane – Who has the advantage?

You might be looking at the stats and be thinking, “but what do all these numbers mean? Who has the advantage over the other?”. Well, let’s take a look into it a little more.

In terms of physical attributes, Ngannou has the edge over Gane, no questions asked. They may be matched in terms of their height, but the Cameroonian has got an extra five pounds behind him, has an extra two inches reach on his arms, and an extra 2.5 inches on his legs. Meaning of the two fighters, he’ll have the easier task of keeping his opponent at a distance to avoid taking any significant blows.

However, Gane is technically a better striker, with the Frenchman successfully landing much more significant strikes per minute than his opponent. He’s also got a better defensive record against significant strikes, and an impressive 100% record defending takedown attempts.

The problem is when you look at the number of strikes landed, whilst Gane does have more, Ngannou clearly has a lot more power behind them, having knocked out more opponents than his rival. And not just that, his average fight time is three times less because he finishes fights early, whereas Gane tends more often than not to wear his opponents down, making them easier to take down.

Our predictions

This won’t be the first time the two have faced each other in a ring, although, as evidenced by the picture above, the last time was only a sparring session. So the two fighters are likely to know each other well, their strengths and weaknesses, and will use this knowledge to their advantage

So what do we here at Fight Matrix think may go down? Well, it could go one of two ways. Gane is no doubt a better fighter as mentioned above; he’s undefeated, has a perfect defense against takedowns, and he knows what he’s good at, and that’s wearing opponents down and landing significant strikes. So, if he can hold off and take this fight all the way to the end, we expect him to win it on a decision.

It’s not that he hasn’t got the power behind him, because he does, but fighting in a southpaw stance he loses a lot of that power because he isn’t naturally left-handed. And that’s backed up by the stats, because look how many more stickers he is landing, compared to how many more KOs Ngannou has managed to rack up.

And that’s why, if Ngannou can land a few blows in the fight, especially early rounds, he has the potential to rock Gane like he has never been rocked before. A quick combination from those iron like fists of Ngannou at the right time, and he could have Gane on the floor, then it’s just about unleashing that fury whilst he’s down and not letting him get back to his feet.

If that happens, we’re not expecting Gane to get back up easily, and if so, it’s likely he’ll have sustained some damage. Whether that be a swollen face or a cut above the eye leave blood spilling across the Octagon.

It is going to be close, that’s for sure, and with the odds having them both at -110 for the win, it seems to be a fight nobody can really call. But we’re going to be brave and go out on a whim here, and say we expect Ngannou to successfully defend his title and inflict a first defeat on Gane. We think he just has too much power to be stopped, and unless Gane can tire him out, he doesn’t stand much of a chance, because he’s going to have to take some hits to do that, and whilst he may withstand the first couple, he won’t be able to compete for the entire fight.