Last week in Melbourne, Australia, Holly Holm scored a huge upset at UFC 193 when she knocked out the reigning women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey, claiming the title with a head kick in the second round. This weekend we’re off to Monterrey, Mexico, for a rather pedestrian Fight Night event on Fox Sports 1. The original main event for this card pitted Kelvin Gastelum against Matt Brown; after Brown pulled out with an injury, Neil Magny once again stepped up as a short-notice replacement. The main card also features a flyweight matchup between Jussier da Silva and Henry Cejudo, which will most likely determine the next contender for Demetrious Johnson’s title. A couple of other so-so fights round out the main card, while the prelims – both the ones on Fox Sports 1 and the ones streamed on Fight Pass – don’t offer anything worth mentioning.
Main Event: [#13 MW] Kelvin Gastelum vs [#21 WW] Neil Magny
Worth: $10
Why: While I would have preferred to see the original matchup of Kelvin Gastelum vs Matt Brown (because who doesn’t love a Matt Brown fight?), the UFC managed to salvage the main event with a fight that’s almost as interesting. Thank Neil Magny, who is becoming the go-to guy for last minute replacements in the welterweight division. Magny did not start his UFC career on a high note, dropping 2 of his first 3 fights, but then went on an unlikely 7 win streak against gradually increasing level of competition. He then took a big step up against Demian Maia, and was dominated on the ground and eventually submitted by a superior grappler. Magny rebounded with a split decision win against Erick Silva and will now attempt to move further up the rankings against a highly touted prospect who is making his return to 170 lbs after a temporary exile from the division.
‘The Ultimate Fighter’ Season 17 middleweight winner Kelvin Gastelum looked like he was on a fast track to contendership, rattling off four straight wins since dropping to welterweight, but had trouble making weight in almost every fight. After badly missing weight for what could have been the #1 contender bout with Tyrone Woodley, and subsequently losing a split decision, Gastelum was banished back to middleweight, where he beat up a way over the hill Nate Marquadt. Somehow, Gastelum convinced Dana White to give him another chance to make 170. And so we end up with quite an interesting fight between two up-and-comers, the outcome of which will propel one of them into the upper echelon of the division. Assuming Kelvin makes weight, of course.
Fight: [#8 FW] Ricardo Lamas vs [NR] Diego Sanchez
Worth: $2.50
Why: Diego ‘The Dream’ Sanchez is the last man standing from the cast of the first season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’. With 35 pro fights and 13+ years of experience under his belt, the 33-year-old is no longer the well rounded fighter with a dangerous ground game that he used to be. While he still has plenty of aggression, which sometimes wins him an inexplicable decision, he mostly abandoned takedowns and turned into a wild brawler with lack of KO power. Sanchez alternated between the lightweight and welterweight divisions for a while, and went 2-2 in his most recent stint as a lightweight, though the split decision win over Ross Pearson in his last fight was as bad of a decision as any I can think of in recent memory. Now after taking a year off, Diego will be making his featherweight debut in a last-ditch attempt to extend his career.
His opponent Ricardo ‘The Bully’ Lamas, a long time veteran of the WEC and UFC’s featherweight division, is the same age as Sanchez but has far less ‘wear and tear’ on him, with only 19 fights and less than 8 years of pro experience. Lamas is 6-3 and went the distance with the champion Jose Aldo in 2014; however he was knocked out by Chad Mendes in his last fight. In fact all of his losses except for the Aldo fight have come by the way of T/KO, whereas Sanchez has only been stopped once in 7 losses. The most likely way for this fight to play out would be Lamas keeping Sanchez at bay with a measured, technical striking approach, while Diego whiffs at air for three rounds. Perhaps Sanchez will show some new dimension to his game after the time off and the weight class change, but I won’t count on it.
Fight: [#45 LW] Efrain Escudero vs [#73 WW] Leandro Silva
Worth: $1
Why: Efrain Escudero was the winner of TUF Season 8, and made his official Octagon debut with a decision victory over Philippe Nover in the finale. After going 3-2 and not making weight in his loss to Charles Oliviera, Efrain was released from UFC in 2010. He was brought back a year later, but released again after dropping back-to-back decisions to Mac Danzig and Jacob Volkmann. Now on his third life, so to speak, Escudero is 2-1 in his current UFC stint and 5-5 overall with the promotion. His opponent Leandro Silva is 2-1 with 1 No Contest in the Octagon. This is a fairly evenly matched fight, if not a particularly interesting one. No many fighters get as many chances as Escudero has had with the UFC, which is likely explained by Zuffa’s drive to expand into Mexico – so a fighter whose nickname is ‘Hecho in Mexico’ gets more leeway than your average cat. Efrain is only 29, so he still has room to improve and make something of his career. Here’s a buck hoping that he can make it happen.
Fight: [#3 FLW] Jussier da Silva vs [#7 FLW] Henry Cejudo
Worth: $10
Why: The main card opener is actually the biggest fight on this card in term of divisional implications, as the winner will almost certainly get the next shot at the flyweight champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson. Prior to the UFC bringing flyweights into the fold, Jussier ‘Formiga’ da Silva spent some time atop the divisional ranking, before dropping a decision to Ian McCall in Tachi Palace Fights. Jussier is 4-2 since joining the UFC, with both losses coming by the way of TKOs to Jon Dodson and Joe Benavidez. He is currently on a three-win streak, and victories over Zach Makovsky and Wilson Reis earned him a Top-3 ranking and an #1 contender bout.
His opponent Henry Cejudo, an Olymic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, is another one of the several fighters on this card who have struggled with weight cuts and bounced in between divisions. Cejudo is undefeated in MMA and 3-0 in UFC, and consistently making the 125 lbs limit has been the biggest hurdle so far in his career. In his three UFC bouts, he has largely used his wrestling in a defensive manner, preferring to keep the fights standing and using his solid technical striking to outpoint his opponents. Though he is the most hyped prospect in the division at the moment, I have not been particularly impressed by his UFC performances: it seems that he is content to do just enough to win a decision, and I’ve yet to see him put together any kind of concerted effort to finish an opponent. Perhaps the step up in competition that he is facing here will force him to up his game. However I expect a similar game plan to his previous fights, as Formiga is most dangerous on the ground so Cejudo will likely avoid any ground exchanges and try to outstrike Jussier. A good strategy on paper and will most likely yield another decision and a title shot for Cejudo, even if it doesn’t make for the most exciting fight. Same as with Kelvin Gastelum in the main event, the biggest question here is whether Cejudo will make weight. He had no issues with the weight cut in his most recent fight, but I am still not 100% convinced that he can do it consistently.
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Fox Sports 1 Event Worth: $23.50
Fox Sports 1 Even Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Event Net Value: $18.50
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Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $600
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $109
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $491