UFC Fight Night 75 will take place at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan and is the finale for the ‘Road to UFC: Japan’ series, which is a re-branded version of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’. As one might expect, the card is loaded with local talent, and would make for a good Fight Pass event; however September has been a slow month compared to UFC’s hectic summer pace, with Fight Night 75 being the only event this month besides the UFC 191 PPV. So we end up with a passable main card on Fox Sports 1, and a very weak preliminary card on Fox Sports 2. There was a lone early prelim fight slated for Fight Pass, but with a last-minute cancellation of the scheduled fight between Matt Hobar and Norifumi ‘Kid’ Yamamoto, the top-billed FS2 prelim was moved to FS1 and the Fight Pass bout bumped up to FS2. Which leaves us with nothing of note on the prelims, so I will just go over the main card.
Main Event: [#15 HW] Roy Nelson vs [NR] Josh Barnett
Worth: $10
Why: This is sort of an odd match-up. It’s as if the UFC doesn’t really know what to do with either of these heavyweights at the moment, so let’s make them coaches on ‘Road to UFC: Japan’, and have them fight each other in the main event of the finale. Beyond that the fight makes little sense, and there is not much on the line here, besides maybe the winner holding on to the remaining bit of relevancy. Roy Nelson is on a two fight skid, and only won one out of his last five bouts, but even with a loss he is likely to get at least one more fight in UFC. His opponent Josh Barnett has not fought in nearly two years, and is 1-1 in his recent UFC stint, with both fights ending by TKO in the first round and not really showing how much Barnett has left in the tank.
We all know exactly what Roy Nelson will do in every fight, so to me the most interesting thing about this one is what strategy will Barnett use against him. Submissions are Barnett’s bread and butter, however Nelson has a very competent ground game. Even though he completely abandoned it in favor of winging overhand rights and uppercuts, he has gone the distance with Frank Mir and Fabricio Werdum – two of the most dangerous submission experts at HW – and was never in any trouble on the ground despite losing both fights. So it’s not likely that Barnett will be able to submit Nelson; a knockout is also unlikely as Roy has a solid chin and Josh is not known for his KO power. The best strategy for Barnett would be to use his ugly yet effective striking to outpoint Nelson, as so many of his opponents have done before. However, Barnett claims that he wants a finish and not a win on points, and going blow-for-blow with Nelson is generally not a good idea. My pick here is Barnett by decision – unless he gets caught with a big shot early, or is very out of shape due to ring rust. What I don’t expect is a particularly exciting fight (barring that possibility of an early KO by Nelson).
Fight: [#5 MW] Gegard Mousasi vs [#32 MW] Uriah Hall
Worth: $7.50
Why: Another odd match-up, even more so than the main event. I really don’t understand how or why Uriah Hall went from one end of the mismatch spectrum, facing a short-notice Octagon debutante with only 5 pro fights, to the complete opposite – facing a Top 5 middleweight in his next fight. I am also not sure why Mousasi is taking such a step down in competition, after back-to-back wins over Dan Henderson and Costas Philippou. Hall is substituting for Roan Carneiro, who was initially slated to face Mousasi but pulled out with an injury, however this replacement was announced over a month ago – so it’s hard to believe that the UFC was not able to find a substitute who was a bit closer to Gegard in the rankings, experience, and skill set.
Regardless of the how and the why, this is a major mismatch as Hall has struggled with middle-of-the-pack middleweights, and is not ready to face the elite. The only way I could see him winning is the proverbial puncher’s (or kicker’s) chance, which doesn’t get you very far against an expert kickboxer like Mousasi. I also could see this being a boring fight, as Hall is likely to be tentative knowing that he is outmatched, and Mousasi has a generally lackadaisical approach to fighting.
Fight: [#8 FLW] Kyoji Horiguchi vs [#17 FLW] Chico Camus
Worth: $5
Why: 24-year-old Kyoji Horiguchi started his UFC career with four consecutive wins, and was granted a shot at the flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, where he was outworked and controlled for the entirety of the five rounds before tapping to an armbar in the very last second of the fight. He will start the rebuilding process with a bout against Chico Camus: a gatekeeper-type fighter with a 3-3 (1 NC) record in the Octagon, and a tendency to make good fighters look bad, win or lose. I expect this to go to a close, possibly controversial decision.
Fight: [#24 BW] Takeya Mizugaki vs [#54 BW] George Roop
Worth: $2.50
Why: A year ago, Takeya Mizugaki was on a five win streak and knocking on the door of a title shot. That all came to a screeching halt when he was ran over by Dominic Cruz in the former champ’s return to the Octagon. Mizugaki was also stopped in his most recent fight by the surging Aljamain Sterling, and another loss may bring an end to his UFC career: Mizugaki is not a big star, and with 70% of his wins going the distance he is also not the most exciting fighter. He is taking a step down by fighting George Roop, a journeyman who typically struggles with powerful strikers but has a chance to score an upset against a decision fighter like Mizugaki. I’ll go out on a limb here and predict a TKO win for Roop, as Mizugaki did not look good at all in his last two bouts.
Fight: [#39 FW] Diego Brandao vs [#83 FW] Katsunori Kikuno
Worth: $2.50
Why: Neither contestant in this bout will ever be anywhere close to the elite of the division, but both are fun action fighters, and Katsunori Kikuno’s weird hands-down karateka stance is tailor made for someone like Brandao to knock his block off. I will be shocked if this fight gets out of the first round.
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Fox Sports 1 Event Worth: $27.50
Fox Sports 1 Event Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $22.50
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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $89.91
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-24.41
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Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $537
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $97
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $440