Bang for Your Buck: UFC 191

For the tenth Pay-Per-View event of the year, the UFC has come up with a great main event and a very good co-main.  Beyond that, the quality of the main card matchups drops very quickly.  On the plus side, there are a couple of interesting fights on the Fox Sports 1 prelims.  There is also Joe Riggs vs Ron Stallings on the Fight Pass prelims… if you’re into that kind of thing.  Let’s get on with it:

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#1 FLW] Demetrious Johnson vs [#4 FLW] John Dodson

Worth: $22.50

Why: Despite this being a rematch, it is undoubtedly the best flyweight fight you could ask for at the moment: John ‘The Magician’ Dodson gave Demetrious Johnson his toughest fight since ‘Mighty Mouse’ won the title, and even though Dodson lost a unanimous decision, he managed to do some damage – even scoring a couple of knockdowns on the champion.  Dodson is the only fighter in the division who can match Johnson’s speed and athleticism, and holds an edge in striking power.  The only thing stopping me from giving this fight the max valuation of $25 is the fact that Johnson has seemingly improved in every fight, racking up five additional title defenses since his first encounter with Dodson, and finishing four of his challengers.  Meanwhile Dodson has been plagued by injuries, fought infrequently, and has not shown any signficant improvements in his game.  Unless Dodson can hurt Demetrious early and capitalize on it unlike last time, I see the rematch going much like their first fight – with Mighty Mouse taking home another decision by being the more active fighter if nothing else.

Co-Main Event:  [#4 HW] Andrei Arlovski vs [#10 HW] Frank Mir

Worth: $15

Why: The heavyweight division is in a weird state in 2015: there is not a single fighter in the Top 10 under 30 (30-year-old Junior dos Santos being the youngest), and most of the names near the top of the division are the same guys who ruled the roost ten years ago.  With Fabricio Werdum winning the heavyweight title, and rumors of Fedor Emelianenko returning from retirement and signing a UFC contract afloat, this has truly been the year of comeback for aging heavyweights.  Our co-main event competitors, both former UFC champions of the decade past, are prime examples of this heavyweight resurrection.

Andrei Arlovski’s name has been tossed around as one of the most likely contenders for Werdum’s title, but for some inexplicable reason UFC decided to give an immediate rematch to Cain Velasquez instead.  While Werdum-Velasquez II is a nonsensical fight at this point in time, it still leaves room for some very interesting matchups in the division.  It’s a bit of a surprise that Arlovski and Mir have not met in the Octagon before, but late is better than never, and with both fighter coming off impressive back-to-back knockout victories this is promising to be a great fight.  Something is holding me back from valuing this fight a bit higher though: a few nagging memories in the back of my mind of the tentative versions of Arlovski and Mir, rather than the ‘swing for the fences’ version that we’ve seen in their recent fights.   Past bouts like Arlovski vs Brendan Schaub, Werdum, or his third fight with Tim Sylvia… or Mir’s fights with Alistair Overeem, Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic, Dan Christison… all make me consider the remote but distinct possibility that we might be in for a dance contest rather than a fight.  But I’m going to put away the ancient memories and hope for the best: two well-matured contenders colliding in a blaze of glory, with the winner perhaps getting another shot at the gold.

Fight:  [#3 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs [#13 LHW] Jimi Manuwa

Worth: $5

Why: The only good thing I have to say about this fight is that it’s less of a mismatch than the originally proposed bout of Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson vs Jan Blachowicz… but a mismatch nonetheless.  I am at loss trying to think of ways for Manuwa to win this fight outside of some freak injury (though a few of Manuwa’s UFC fights ended with strange injuries to his opponents, so there may be something to this).  Beyond that, Manuwa has at best a very small puncher’s chance.   All of Rumble’s losses have come to guys who were able to wear him down and eventually submit him.  I’ve seen nothing from Jimi Manuwa to suggest that he can out-cardio or out-grapple Johnson, so the most likely outcome is an early and brutal beatdown by Rumble.

Fight:  [#21 LHW] Jan Blachowicz vs [#67 LHW] Corey Anderson

Worth: $1

Why:  I highly doubt that either of these fighters will ever amount to a contender, even in the shallow light heavyweight division.  In fact I am fairly certain that neither one ever will.  I may be writing off the ‘The Ultimate Fighter 19’ winner Corey Anderson too soon, as he is only 25 years old with six pro fights to his name, but he has looked absolutely awful in his post-TUF career so far, and taking on a borderline Top 20 opponent after getting TKO’d by Gian Villante does not bode well for Anderson.  Here’s a buck hoping that one of these guys will pleasantly surprise me.

Fight:  [#23 W115] Paige VanZant vs [NR] Alex Chambers

Worth: $1

Why: While this looks like a competitive fight on paper, based on both opponent’s records and experience, there is a reason that Paige VanZant is anywhere between 10-1 and 15-1 favorite over Alex Chambers in the sports books’ odds.  This could be understandable for a Ronda Rousey fight, but inexcusable for just about any other UFC matchup.  I understand that VanZant is a marketable fighter in a very thin division and the UFC  is trying to build her up slowly, but it’s time for Paige to take a step up in competition – and this is not it.

Prelims (Fox Sports 1)

Fight:  [#45 LW] Paul Felder vs [#50 LW] Ross Pearson

Worth: $10

Why: Paul Felder is one of the UFC’s hottest prospects in one of, if not the most, competitive weight classes. After knocking out Danny Castillo with a spinning backfist, Felder took a big step up in his next fight against Edson Barboza.  Much ‘spinning shit’ was thrown, and though Barboza walked away with his hand raised in a unanimous decision, Felder’s stock did not drop any as he showed that he’s able to hang with the elite of the division.

Felder is now taking a step back, scoring the featured prelim bout against a 16-fight UFC veteran Ross Pearson. This is a ‘contender vs journeyman’ type of matchup, but Pearson is a sufficiently skilled and durable striker to potentially make it an interesting and competitive fight. If Felder wins in an impressive fashion, he may be ready for another step up the lightweight ladder.

Fight:  [#21 BW] John Lineker vs  [#23 BW] Francisco Rivera

Worth: $10

Why: This is a rare bantamweight fight where both opponents have considerable knockout power.   John Lineker has really screwed the proverbial pooch in his last fight, when he failed to make the flyweight limit against Ian McCall.  Had Lineker made weight, he could very well have been fighting Demetrious Johnson for the title. Instead, as it was not the first time he failed to make 125 lbs, Lineker has been exiled to the bantamweight division, where he will be quite undersized at only 5’2″. His opponent Francisco Rivera has scored a T/KO in three of his four UFC victories, and was looking good against Urijah Faber until the unfortunate eye poke that led to the eventual submission loss.  I am curious to see if ‘Cisco’ can continue his ascent, or if Lineker’s power can make up for his size disadvantage.