UFC has had a lot of ups and downs in 2015 so far. After a fairly successful first quarter in terms of TV ratings and Pay-Per-View buy numbers, the promotion hit another rough patch: cards falling apart due to injuries, controversial Reebok sponsorship deal which left many fighters unhappy, and legal issues faced by the company as well as certain fighters. Nonetheless, the line-up they put together for UFC 187 looked to be the most stacked card since UFC 100 (and arguably the best in the organization history). Of course the MMA gods didn’t spare this great card: light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, who was slated to defend his title against Anthony Johnson, was stripped of the belt and suspended from UFC due to a series of poor decisions on his part, and a lightweight title eliminator bout between two top contenders fell apart when Khabib Nurmagomedov suffered an injury and pulled out of his fight against Donald Cerrone. Despite these losses, UFC 187 had such a strong line-up that it still remains an amazing card, and will be one of the rare PPV events worth the asking price.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Main Event: [#2 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs [#3 LHW] Daniel Cormier for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Worth: $20
Why: If the original main event of Jon Jones vs Anthony Johnson had gone on as planned, it would have been the second UFC fight this year to receive my max valuation of $25 (the first and only one so far was Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier at UFC 182). The replacement bout of ‘Rumble’ Johnson vs Daniel Cormier is still a great fight, but let’s not kid ourselves: the winner of this fight will be a paper champion unless Jon Jones receives a lengthy prison term for his shenanigans, or decides to walk away from the sport. I am looking forward to Cormier-Johnson, and really this was the best fight UFC could have made under the circumstances, but I can’t help the feeling that the winner of this fight will be just keeping the belt warm for Jones’ eventual return.
Co-Main Event: (C) [#1 MW] Chris Weidman vs [NR] Vitor Belfort for the UFC Middleweight Championship
Worth: $22.50
Why: This is another fight that I would have valuated at the max of $25 – had it happened a little sooner. Between Vitor Belfort’s 18+ months layoff and well-publicized TRT withdrawal, and Chris Weidman’s frequent injuries, at this point I doubt that we will be seeing both men at their absolute best. The fact that Belfort is 38 years old is not helping the matter either, despite all his blustery talk about how he’s only getting better with age and lack of testosterone supplements. This is a fight I have been looking to for a long time, and at this point it’s just a tad bit past it’s expiration date. Despite all this, I am still hoping for fireworks.
Fight: [#2 LW] Donald Cerrone vs [#62 LW] John Makdessi
Worth: $5
Why: Initially, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone was supposed to take on [#6] Khabib Nurmagomedov, with the winner almost certainly getting the next shot at the lightweight title. Unfortunately, Khabib once again suffered a training injury which forced him out of the fight and left UFC scrambling for a replacement opponent. With most of the top lightweights either already booked for fights or unavailable due to injuries of their own, it’s understandable that Cowboy could not get a Top-10 opponent on short notice, however I am disappointed that they had to reach outside of the Top 50. Rankings aside, Makdessi is actually a stylistically dangerous opponent for Cerrone, and I won’t completely count him out in this fight. Unfortunately if Makdessi pulls off the win, he will take a huge jump in the rankings but still will not be anywhere near title consideration. And a victory for Cerrone won’t hold much significance besides extending his streak to 8 consecutive wins. No matter how you look at it, this fight is a poor substitute for the original matchup.
Fight: [#3 HW] Andrei Arlovski vs [#5 HW] Travis Browne
Worth: $15
Why: I still find it hard to believe that Andrei Arlovski is a Top 5 heavyweight in 2015. The recent resurgence of older heavyweights such as Arlovski, Frank Mir, Mark Hunt, etc illustrates once again that knockout power is the great equalizer, and an aging fighter holds on to his power far longer than other athletic attributes. My main concern for this fight is that Arlovski and Travis Browne were training partners until recently, and their friendship makes it more likely that we might see the tentative, low-output version of Arlovski (of course this is a possibility in any of Andrei’s fights). Let’s just hope that the big men do what they do best, and deliver a highlight-reel knockout.
Fight: [#2 FLW] Joseph Benavidez vs [#10 FLW] John Moraga
Worth: $5
Why: Joseph Benavidez is stuck in the no-man’s land in the flyweight division. He is the clear #2, but after losing twice to the champion – the second time by a first-round knockout – he will have to run up a long win streak before he gets another shot at Demetrious Johnson. For now, he is taking on John Moraga in a fairly meaningless fight that will likely be a one-sided affair.
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Fight: [#4 FLW] John Dodson vs [#5 FLW] Zach Makovsky
Worth: $10
Why: What do you get when you put together one of the most exciting and dynamic fighters in the division with one of the most boring, grinding lay-and-pray artists? The next contender to Demetrious Johnson’s title. And hopefully a halfway-decent fight. I don’t think Makovsky has the athleticism to hold Dodson on his back for three rounds, in fact I don’t think anyone under 155 lbs does. Which means that Dodson vs ‘Mighty Mouse’ rematch is looming on the horizon.
Fight: [#13 WW] Dong Hyun Kim vs [#22 WW] Josh Burkman
Worth: $5
Why: Dong Hyun ‘Stun Gun’ Kim has had an interesting career in the UFC so far. The 14-fight Octagon veteran at first earned a reputation as a boring fighter, but then started throwing caution to the wind, which earned him a couple of impressive knockouts over Erick Silva and John Hathaway. This approach backfired in his most recent fight, when he was rendered unconscious courtesy of Tyron Woodley. It remains to be seen whether he will continue to push his new-found striking ability despite the setback, or revert to his old ways of takedowns and ground control. Either way, he should not have too much trouble with his opponent Josh Burkman, who has not won a fight in the UFC since 2007. Quite frankly I don’t understand the reason UFC brought Burkman back; though he has earned a respectable 9-2 record since his first run in the organization, the only real high point in that period of his career was a submission win over Jon Fitch. At 34, Burkman’s upside is limited. Though his loss to Hector Lombard in his Octagon return was overturned to a no-contest when Lombard failed a post fight drug test, he had very little to offer in that fight offensively. I don’t see the fight with Kim going much differently.
Fight: [#29 MW] Uriah Hall vs [#30 MW] Rafael Natal
Worth: $5
Why: This is a decent matchup between two middling heavyweights trying to break away from the pack. Uriah Hall showed a lot of promise in his performances on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’; he took a decision loss in his first two official UFC bouts, but then righted the course with three straight wins, two of them TKO stoppages. Rafael ‘Sapo’ Natal is 7-4-1 in the UFC and coming off two straight wins, though he has only been able to stop one of his UFC opponents and has never looked particularly impressive in his decision wins either. On paper, this is Hall’s fight to lose; then again, it won’t be the first time he lost a fight that he was supposed to win. I’m mostly interested in this fight to see if Hall can continue rising in the rankings and live up to his potential; as for Natal, he has likely already reached his ceiling.
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Fight: [#32 WW] Mike Pyle vs [#223 WW] Colby Covington
Worth: $1
Why: A huge mismatch from the ranking standpoint, but this fight may be closer than the rankings suggest: 39-year-old Mike Pyle is clearly in the final stretch of his career, and has looked a bit chinny as of late. Colby Covington is 12 years younger, and undefeated with 2 UFC wins already under his belt. On the other hand, Pyle has finished 4 of his last 7 opponents, which shows that he is still a dangerous foe in the cage, and Colby has yet to face anyone near Pyle’s level of experience. This could be an opportunity for Covington to get a big name win and a big rise in the rankings… or another extension of Pyle’s long career.
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Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $67.50
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $7.51
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $20
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $18
Event Net Value: $25.50
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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $1
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $49.95
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $2.05
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PPV YTD Worth: $291
PPV YTD Cost: $359.94
PPV YTD Net Value: $-68.94
Fox Sports 1 YTD Worth: $164.50
Fox Sports 1 YTD Valuation: $44
Fox Sports 1 YTD Net Value: $120.50
Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $87.50
Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $139.06