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Fight Matrix

Gambling Analysis: UFC on Fuel TV 2

Posted on April 11, 2012 by Jason

With the first UFC event in six weeks, I’m getting back into the swing of things with an opportunity to score some coin.  Having licked my wounds as a result of the mental trauma resulting from my undefeated streak coming to a halt, I’m still riding high in the grand scheme of things and am here to present another advantageous, perhaps obvious bet.

Gustaffson vs. Silva is a match where Gustaffson is a favorite at about -225.  I think this is an incredible play.  Since his loss to Davis, Gustaffson has actually done enough results-wise to surpass Davis.  Add into the fact, that Silva has not had an official win in almost three years and this results in a great play for a young/upcoming fighter.  I do not favor a particular outcome for this fight, but I do favor the win for Gustaffson.

Of course with every bet, it’s a good idea to determine the best sports books available to you on the Internet.  The variety of sports and types of bets can wildly differ between books.  Always look for reputation ratings and the best odds before opening an account and making your bets.

For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:

  • UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
    • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
  • UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
    • Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
  • UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
    • No Outcome Predicted
  • UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
    • Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
  • StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
    • Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
  • StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
    • No Contest
  • UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
    • Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
  • UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
    • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
  • UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
    • No Outcome Predicted

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners (prior to UFC Fuel TV 2) at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $216.27.  If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit.  We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

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