I’ve seen a lot of negative comments on MMA forums about Junior dos Santos being ranked #7 at Heavyweight. At first, I agreed… but after analyzing the Heavyweight division and reminding myself of a core principle we abide by, the ranking makes perfect sense.
Before reading the rest of this post, please consider that core principle I just spoke of:
- A winning fighter is placed over the losing fighter by a margin that is dependent on the type of win.
Why is this? This system is primarily mathematically biased. The traditional mathematically based rating systems, such as those used for chess, are so successful because players participate in a tremendous amount of games. This gives the system a large sample set to rate players on. However, in combat sports, this is not the case.
For top fighters, who we care about the most, we are lucky to see them fight more than four times in a year! Due to this, we must give highest priority to the most recent result.
Furthermore, this is a COMPUTERIZED system. Please remember this. A win is a win, and more importantly, a KO/TKO/SUB is a dominant, decisive win.
Now, back to the scenario at hand. Let’s take a look at the top of the Heavyweight division, and at what fighters should definitely be ranked above dos Santos.
The Top 2
Fedor Emelianenko – The clear #1. There is absolutely no debating this.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – A very clear #2. There is hardly an argument to this fact.
The Next 4
Brock Lesnar, Randy Couture, Andrei Arlovski, Josh Barnett – Put them in whatever order you want (except keep Lesnar above Couture, please?). These are your #3-6, or at least they should be. I don’t see any fighters who can be injected in this area.
Who is #7?
This is where it gets tricky. In my opinion, you only have a few realistic candidates here: Junior dos Santos, Gabriel Gonzaga, Mirko Filipovic, Tim Sylvia, Cheick Kongo.
Let’s take a look at each one, saving dos Santos for last.
Tim Sylvia – A fighter without a Top 10 win since 2006. Has lost three of his last four. Yes, the losses were against top competition, but you have to win to retain your standing. I think a #9 ranking is more than generous for Tim.
Mirko Filipovic – Has lost two of his last three decisions, both against fighters who were not previously in the Top 20. Although it was not considered by the computerized system, he also looked like a shot fighter against Overeem. He has been on a steep decline and is not worthy.
Cheick Kongo – His claim to fame is a split decision win against the aforementioned Mirko. He has not followed that up with anything impressive. Kongo is definitely not worthy of the #7 spot. I left Herring out of this discussion, but you can fit him right next to Kongo.
Gabriel Gonzaga – How many similarities does he have with dos Santos? A Brazilian Heavyweight who made the Top 10, and is still in most Top 10s based on one win. A crushing knockout against CroCop, whose decline I just covered. Since then, he has lost twice to the only top fighters he’s faced, including Werdum. He was a Top 50 Heavyweight before he beat CroCop, so although he had a mark on the scene before the win, it was a very, very small one.
Junior dos Santos – A relative unknown who delivered a crushing defeat to Fabricio Werdum, who himself was previously ranked #4 in the Heavyweight division. Not only that, Werdum was not a one-hit wonder. Werdum had proved himself twice in very recent fights against Brandon Vera and Gabriel Gonzaga. Although Santos was well outside of the Top 100, he never had a chance to prove himself against top competition. When given the chance, he capitalized.
Conclusion
The MMA community had no problem rating Gonzaga in the Top 10 after his defeat of CroCop, because CroCop was given credit for his name value and past history of accomplishments. At FightMatrix, the computer cares nothing about name, and recent accomplishments take precedent over old ones. This is why dos Santos is ranked at #7.