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This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Siler vs. Holobaugh | Siler (-129 / Very Small) | Siler (1.57x / Moderate) | PASS | #1 |
| Head vs. Catone | Head (-157 / Small) | Head (4.98x / Massive) | Head | |
| Garcia vs. McKenzie | Garcia (-175 / Small) | Garcia (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | McKenzie | |
| Khabilov vs. Medeiros | Khabilov (-308 / Large) | Khabilov (2.24x / Large) | PASS | |
| McMann vs. Gaff | McMann (-702 / Very Large) | McMann (1.78x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #3 |
| St. Preux vs. Villante | St. Preux (-194 / Moderate) | St. Preux (1.25x / Very Small) | Villante | |
| Caraway vs. Bedford | Bedford (-148 / Small) | Caraway (1.12x / Very Small) | PASS | #2 |
| Miller vs. Healy | Miller (-323 / Large) | Miller (1.05x / Pick ‘Em) | Healy | |
| Davis vs. Magalhaes | Davis (-329 / Large) | Davis (1.87x / Large) | PASS | |
| Nelson vs. Kongo | Nelson (-239 / Moderate) | Nelson (1.32x / Small) | Kongo | |
| Belcher vs. Bisping | Bisping (-171 / Small) | Bisping (1.16x / Very Small) | Belcher | |
| Jones vs. Sonnen | Jones (-909 / Very Large) | Jones (3.68x / Massive) | Jones | #1 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Head, Jones
Underdogs to consider:
- Villante over St. Preux – Villante has been successful since his drop to 205. A small bet may be warranted..
- McKenzie over Garcia – The mere fact that Garcia is involved makes me leery to even make note of this bout. Tread carefully.
- Belcher over Bisping – The fringe contenders at Middleweight are constantly bouncing around due to the congestion and matchmaking. Still, Belcher seems to be an OK bet.
- Healy over Miller – The system continues its somewhat odd Lightweight love affair with Healy, after breaking up with Brian Cobb. Will this love stand the test?
- Kongo over Nelson – Due to the stylistic difference which I do not consider in these posts, another potential bet that is clouded with subjective doubt.
Posted on April 25, 2013 by jcs
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