Fight Matrix Program – Contender Series 2019: Week 2 (06-25-2019)

25 Jun , 2019,
jcs
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Middleweight (178)
[#552WW] Miguel Baeza (6-0-0, 169.5lb) vs. [#553WW] Victor Reyna (10-4-0, 178.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Miguel Baeza (3-0-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#1908WW] Matthew Colquhoun (4-3-0) via KO in 3:31 of round 1
2017-09-01: W vs. [#957WW] Leo Valdivia (5-4-0) via SD ()
2017-04-07: W vs. [NA] Augustus DAngelo (2-2-0) via TKO in 1:14 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Victor Reyna (2-1-0)
2018-07-21: L vs. [#185MW] Hayward Charles (17-13-0) via TKO in 0:21 of round 1
2017-12-01: W vs. [#445WW] Daniel Rodriguez (8-2-0) via SD ()
2017-04-20: W vs. [#709BW] Andrew Perez (9-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Miguel Baeza (1366.01) [+57.75] – Win%: 56.56
Elo Favorite (Modified): Miguel Baeza (1381.30) [+75.16] – Win%: 58.15
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miguel Baeza 192, Victor Reyna 339
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#170] Alton Cunningham (7-1-0, 205.5lb) vs. [#250] Tony Johnson (7-2-0, 203.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Alton Cunningham (2-1-0)
2018-12-07: W vs. [#320LHW] Erick Murray (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 2
2018-10-27: W vs. [#621MW] B.J. Lacy (17-26-3) via TKO in 0:53 of round 1
2018-07-10: L vs. [#154MW] Bevon Lewis (6-2-0) via TKO (Knees) in 3:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tony Johnson (3-0-0)
2018-10-27: W vs. [#456LHW] Jaquis Williams (7-10-0) via MD ()
2017-09-23: W vs. [NA] Mike Ortega (2-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:49 of round 2
2013-02-02: W vs. [#942WW] Justin Baesman (18-21-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 28-29)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Alton Cunningham (1347.65) [+69.38] – Win%: 57.86
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alton Cunningham (1445.63) [+207.72] – Win%: 71.29
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alton Cunningham 200, Tony Johnson 241
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (146)
[#125] Justin Gonzales (9-0-0, 146.0lb) vs. [#471WW] Zach Zane (12-7-0, 146.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gonzales (3-0-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#1380FW] Bruno Ferreira (8-2-0) via TKO in of round 1
2018-12-01: W vs. [#332FW] Drew Brokenshire (18-9-0) via DEC ()
2018-05-19: W vs. [NA] Andy Brossett (2-6-0) via TKO in 3:58 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Zach Zane (3-0-0)
2019-03-22: W vs. [#1707WW] Kealii Kanekoa (2-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:23 of round 1
2019-02-13: W vs. [NA] Kris Berberich (2-5-0) via SUB in 2:32 of round 1
2018-08-04: W vs. [#1813LW] Cesar Gonzalez (2-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Justin Gonzales (1599.04) [+202.55] – Win%: 71.61
Elo Favorite (Modified): Justin Gonzales (1648.20) [+236.34] – Win%: 73.78
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gonzales 59, Zach Zane 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Sunday, July 21st 2019: Pancrase 307
 [#2 SW] Daichi Kitakata [#4 SW] Mitsuhisa Sunabe
Last Fight Date: 4/14/2019 [Pancrase]
Last Opponent: [#20 SW] Tatsuya So
Last 5: L W W W W
Last Fight Date: 9/30/2018 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#1 SW] Haruo Ochi
Last 5: W W W W L
Sunday, July 28th 2019: RIZIN 17
 [#2 W105] Seo Hee Ham [#11 W105] Tomo Maesawa
Last Fight Date: 12/15/2018 [Road Fighting Championship]
Last Opponent: [NR] Jeong Eun Park
Last 5: L L W W W
Last Fight Date: 3/08/2019 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#7 W105] Kanna Asakura
Last 5: L W W W L
Saturday, September 7th 2019: Bellator 226: Bader vs. Kongo
 [#4 HW] Ryan Bader [#10 HW] Cheick Kongo
Last Fight Date: 1/26/2019 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#21 HW] Fedor Emelianenko
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 2/16/2019 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#23 HW] Vitaly Minakov
Last 5: W W W W W

Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 12: Moicano vs. Korean Zombie (06-22-2019)

17 Jun , 2019,
jcs
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Featherweight (146)
[#9] Renato Carneiro (13-2-1, 146.0lb, -205) vs. [#63] Chan Sung Jung (14-5-0, 146.0lb, +168)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (2-1-0)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#4FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 2
2018-08-04: W vs. [#30FW] Cub Swanson (25-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2018-04-07: W vs. [#10FW] Calvin Kattar (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (1-2-0)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#26FW] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5
2017-02-04: W vs. [#98LW] Dennis Bermudez (17-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:49 of round 1
2013-08-03: L vs. [#4FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 4

Odds Favorite (Implied): Renato Carneiro – Win%: 64.30
Elo Favorite (Standard): Renato Carneiro (1915.42) [+203.66] – Win%: 71.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Renato Carneiro (1867.95) [+158.87] – Win%: 66.72
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 140, Chan Sung Jung 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#70] Bryan Barberena (14-6-0, 170.5lb, -276) vs. [#153] Randy Brown (10-3-0, 170.0lb, +221)

Last 3 Fights: Bryan Barberena (1-2-0)
2019-02-17: L vs. [#25WW] Vicente Luque (16-6-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:54 of round 3
2018-08-25: W vs. [*] Jake Ellenberger (31-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2017-09-02: L vs. [#13WW] Leon Edwards (17-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (1-2-0)
2018-07-14: L vs. [#46WW] Niko Price (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 2
2017-11-04: W vs. [#188WW] Mickey Gall (5-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2017-02-11: L vs. [#33WW] Belal Muhammad (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Bryan Barberena – Win%: 70.20
Elo Favorite (Standard): Bryan Barberena (1637.58) [+144.40] – Win%: 65.92
Elo Favorite (Modified): Bryan Barberena (1653.51) [+122.41] – Win%: 63.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryan Barberena 125, Randy Brown 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#46] Andre Ewell (14-5-0, 135.0lb, -109) vs. [#216FW] Anderson dos Santos (20-7-0, 135.5lb, -113)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Ewell (2-1-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#20BW] Nathaniel Wood (16-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 3
2018-09-22: W vs. [#87BW] Renan Barao (34-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-06-15: W vs. [#300BW] Dinis Paiva (11-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:36 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Anderson dos Santos (2-1-0)
2018-11-17: L vs. [#108FW] Nad Narimani (12-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#478BW] Aleandro Caetano (17-5-1) via UD ()
2018-07-21: W vs. [#243BW] Wanderley da Silva Ferrei (9-3-0) via TKO in 4:10 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Anderson dos Santos – Win%: 50.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andre Ewell (1528.40) [+45.47] – Win%: 55.18
Elo Favorite (Modified): Andre Ewell (1506.43) [+1.68] – Win%: 50.18
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Ewell 175, Anderson dos Santos 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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MMA Betting

16 Jun , 2019,
A. J. Riot
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MMA betting has gained popularity around ten years ago when the sport established one of the fastest growing fan bases worldwide. It even outranked boxing in interest. The fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor broke UFC viewership records at the time, and while the biggest fights still take place on Pay-Per-View, many cable channels have begun to broadcast MMA fights on a regular basis.

The first thing you need to know about MMA betting is that oddsmakers are not as sharp at handicapping UFC fights compared to traditional sports. The fraction of MMA betting action is still fairly small compared to more popular sports like soccer of football, which is great news for smart bettors with knowledge of MMA, as this puts the odds in their favor.

Everything About MMA Odds

MMA odds determine the probability of an event during the match. If you are betting on the favorite the odds might look something like -800, which means you will be paid 1/8th of your original bet if the fighter you pick wins. The underdog will have odds like +550, which means your payout will be 5.5 times your original bet.

UFC odds tend to be artificially higher than what they should be due to the inherent unpredictability of the sport. This doesn’t mean you should avoid betting on favorites, but be very selective when laying down a wager on them.

The real value is in knowing when to bet on underdogs, as upsets are more common than you might think. Most predicted that Ronda Rousey would defeat Holly Holm in 2014. Holm was a big underdog with odds of +600.

What if the fight ends in a draw? This is rare, but if it happens the bet is a push and all stakes are returned.

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Cowboy Cerrone continues to shatter UFC records

12 Jun , 2019,
oleg
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Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone has been competing as a professional MMA fighter for over 20 years, and in the UFC Octagon since 2011. While he’s never held a UFC belt (not even an interim one), coming up short in his only title shot against then lightweight king Raphael dos Anjos in 2015, Cerrone has remained among the MMA elite for his entire career. He has consistently been ranked in the Top 20 fighters in the world at lightweight or welterweight since his third UFC fight, a first round stoppage over Charles Oliveira, and has reached as high as #2 at 155 lbs and #5 at 170. He is also the winningest and the most active fighter in UFC history.

Last year, we published an article musing on who will be the first UFC fighter to achieve 30 fights in the promotion, and did a follow-up piece a few months later. Since then, Cowboy went from 27 UFC bouts at the time of the first article, to the current record of 32. So despite a disappointing loss to Tony Ferguson at UFC 238, Cerrone remains a legend of the Octagon and a future lock for the UFC hall of fame.

Let’s take a more in-depth look at Donald’s accomplishments (striking statistics courtesy of UFCStats.com).

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Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 222: MacDonald vs. Gracie (06-14-2019)

11 Jun , 2019,
jcs
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Welterweight (170)
[#10] Rory MacDonald (20-5-1, -170) vs. [#99] Neiman Gracie (9-0-0, +146)
Rory MacDonald is the All-Time #11 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (1-1-1)
2019-04-27: D vs. [#14WW] Jon Fitch (32-7-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 5
2018-09-29: L vs. [#3MW] Gegard Mousasi (45-6-2) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:23 of round 2
2018-01-20: W vs. [#11WW] Douglas Lima (31-7-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Neiman Gracie (3-0-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#184WW] Ed Ruth (6-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:17 of round 4
2018-04-28: W vs. [#155MW] Javier Torres (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 2
2017-10-20: W vs. [#242WW] Zak Bucia (18-11-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 2:27 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Rory MacDonald – Win%: 60.76
Elo Favorite (Standard): Rory MacDonald (2070.02) [+397.79] – Win%: 86.02
Elo Favorite (Modified): Rory MacDonald (2050.10) [+348.65] – Win%: 82.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rory MacDonald 48, Neiman Gracie 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#12MW] Lyoto Machida (25-8-0, -336) vs. [#32] Chael Sonnen (30-16-1, +269)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.
Chael Sonnen is the All-Time #45 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (3-0-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#22MW] Rafael Carvalho (15-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2018-05-12: W vs. [*] Vitor Belfort (26-14-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2018-02-03: W vs. [#56LHW] Eryk Anders (11-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (2-1-0)
2018-10-13: L vs. [#21HW+] Fedor Emelianenko (38-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [#42HW+] Quinton Jackson (38-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-06-24: W vs. [#168HW+] Wanderlei Silva (35-14-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Lyoto Machida – Win%: 73.98
Elo Favorite (Standard): Lyoto Machida (2009.01) [+178.31] – Win%: 69.31
Elo Favorite (Modified): Lyoto Machida (1916.22) [+71.96] – Win%: 57.81
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 181, Chael Sonnen 244
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 3-2
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Welterweight (175)
[#1102] Max Humphrey (3-2-0, +534) vs. [#1733] Dillon Danis (1-0-0, -754)

Last 3 Fights: Max Humphrey (1-2-0)
2018-07-28: L vs. [#800WW] Anthony Goldfield (3-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [*] David Nieto-Clark (2-1-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2017-09-30: L vs. [#982WW] Zach Long (2-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dillon Danis (1-0-0)
2018-04-28: W vs. [NA] Kyle Walker (2-4-0) via Submission (Toe Hold) in 1:38 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Dillon Danis – Win%: 84.84
Elo Favorite (Standard): Dillon Danis (1071.34) [+31.19] – Win%: 53.56
Elo Favorite (Modified): Dillon Danis (1143.86) [+96.64] – Win%: 60.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Humphrey 321, Dillon Danis 412
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes (06-08-2019)

2 Jun , 2019,
jcs
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1FLY/#1DD/#3P4P] Henry Cejudo (14-2-0, +102) vs. [#1] Marlon Moraes (22-5-1, -127)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #8 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (3-0-0)
2019-01-19: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:32 of round 1
2018-08-04: W vs. [#9BW/#4P4P] Demetrious Johnson (28-3-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#53BW] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (3-0-0)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#8BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:17 of round 1
2018-06-01: W vs. [#11BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-3-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2017-12-09: W vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (17-3-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:07 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marlon Moraes – Win%: 53.05
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marlon Moraes (2162.39) [+0.90] – Win%: 50.10
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marlon Moraes (2120.83) [+26.82] – Win%: 52.93
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Henry Cejudo 140, Marlon Moraes 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (16-3-0, -1423) vs. [#3] Jessica Eye (14-6-0, +783)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #13 ranked Women’s fighter.
Jessica Eye is the All-Time #42 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (2-1-0)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#3SW/#8DD/#10P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-02-03: W vs. [#69FLY] Priscila Cachoeira (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 2
2017-09-09: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (17-4-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Eye (3-0-0)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#4FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#44FLY] Jessica-Rose Clark (9-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#76FLY] Kalindra Faria (18-8-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Valentina Shevchenko – Win%: 89.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Valentina Shevchenko (1764.78) [+173.06] – Win%: 68.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Valentina Shevchenko (1782.65) [+228.21] – Win%: 73.09
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 182, Jessica Eye 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#3/#9DD/#10P4P] Tony Ferguson (24-3-0, -169) vs. [#4] Donald Cerrone (36-11-0, +141)
Tony Ferguson is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (3-0-0)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#6WW] Anthony Pettis (22-8-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2017-10-07: W vs. [#34WW] Kevin Lee (17-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 3
2016-11-05: W vs. [#5WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-11-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (3-0-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#8LW] Al Iaquinta (15-5-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#15LW] Alexander Hernandez (10-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:42 of round 2
2018-11-10: W vs. [#21WW] Mike Perry (13-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:46 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tony Ferguson – Win%: 60.22
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tony Ferguson (2281.71) [+184.22] – Win%: 69.88
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tony Ferguson (2221.18) [+167.47] – Win%: 67.55
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 245, Donald Cerrone 35
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tony Ferguson leads 4-2
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (06-02-2019)

Jun , 2019,
jcs
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Notable Info

  • Men’s Lightweight and Featherweight expanded to Top 700 (from 650).