FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 132: Cerrone/Edwards (06-23-2018)

18 Jun , 2018,
jcs
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Donald Cerrone (33-10-0) vs. [#21] Leon Edwards (15-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (1-2-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#19WW] Yancy Medeiros (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 1
2017-10-21: L vs. [#3WW] Darren Till (17-0-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:20 of round 1
2017-07-29: L vs. [#7WW] Robbie Lawler (28-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (3-0-0)
2018-03-17: W vs. [#70WW] Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3
2017-09-02: W vs. [#67WW] Bryan Barberena (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-03-18: W vs. [#27WW] Vicente Luque (13-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 125, Leon Edwards 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15] Ovince St. Preux (22-11-0) vs. [#33] Tyson Pedro (7-1-0)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (2-1-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#7LHW] Ilir Latifi (14-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:48 of round 1
2017-11-04: W vs. [#16LHW] Corey Anderson (10-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:25 of round 3
2017-09-22: W vs. [#46WW] Yushin Okami (35-11-0) via Technical Submission (Shoulder Choke) in 1:50 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Pedro (2-1-0)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#106LHW] Saparbek Safarov (8-2-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:54 of round 1
2017-09-09: L vs. [#7LHW] Ilir Latifi (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-03-04: W vs. [#38LHW] Paul Craig (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:10 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ovince St. Preux 119, Tyson Pedro 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#12] Jessica Eye (12-6-0) vs. [#21] Jessica-Rose Clark (9-4-0)
Jessica Eye is the All-Time #39 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Eye (1-2-0)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#40FLY] Kalindra Faria (18-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2016-09-10: L vs. [#9BW] Bethe Correia (10-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2016-05-29: L vs. [#8BW] Sara McMann (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica-Rose Clark (3-0-0)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#46FLY] Paige VanZant (7-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-11-18: W vs. [#70FLY] Bec Rawlings (7-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-08-18: W vs. [#59BW] Carina Damm (23-15-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Eye 160, Jessica-Rose Clark 160
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Sunday, July 29th 2018: RIZIN 11
 [#3 W105] Kanna Asakura [#9 W105] Rena Kubota
Last Fight Date: 5/06/2018 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [NR] Melissa Karagianis
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 7/06/2018 [Shoot Boxing]
Last Opponent: [NR] Elaine Leal
Last 5: W W W L W
Saturday, July 21st 2018: Invicta FC 30: Yu Frey vs. Grusander
 [#6 W105] Jinh Yu Frey [#8 W105] Minna Grusander
Last Fight Date: 12/23/2017 [Road Fighting Championship]
Last Opponent: [#1 W105] Seo Hee Ham
Last 5: W W L W L
Last Fight Date: 3/24/2018 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [NR] Fernanda Priscila Barros Pinheiro
Last 5: L W W W W
Friday, October 12th 2018: Bellator MMA - Mitrione vs. Bader
 [#6 HW] Ryan Bader [#12 HW] Matt Mitrione
Last Fight Date: 5/12/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#16 HW] Muhammed Lawal
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 2/16/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#21 HW] Roy Nelson
Last 5: L W W W W

FightMatrix Program – UFC 225: Whitaker/Romero 2 (06-09-2018)

7 Jun , 2018,
jcs
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Middleweight Championship (185)
[#2/#8P4P] Robert Whittaker (19-4-0, -227) vs. [#3] Yoel Romero (13-2-0, +184)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Yoel Romero is the All-Time #11 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (3-0-0)
2017-07-08: W vs. [#3MW] Yoel Romero (13-2-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-04-15: W vs. [#8MW] Ronaldo Souza (25-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:28 of round 2
2016-11-26: W vs. [#10MW] Derek Brunson (18-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:07 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yoel Romero (2-1-0)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#6MW] Luke Rockhold (16-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 3
2017-07-08: L vs. [#2MW/#8P4P] Robert Whittaker (19-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-11-12: W vs. [#7MW] Chris Weidman (14-3-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:24 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 336, Yoel Romero 119
Previous Match-up Record: Robert Whittaker leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight Championship (170)
[#2/#10P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (28-9-0, -127) vs. [#5] Colby Covington (13-1-0, +102)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #33 ranked Welterweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.
Colby Covington is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#7WW] Robbie Lawler (28-12-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#10WW] Neil Magny (21-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2017-06-17: W vs. [#31WW] Tarec Saffiedine (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (3-0-0)
2017-10-28: W vs. [#11WW] Demian Maia (25-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
2017-06-17: W vs. [#28WW] Dong Hyun Kim (22-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-25)
2016-12-17: W vs. [#66WW] Bryan Barberena (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 175, Colby Covington 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#3] Holly Holm (11-4-0, -233) vs. [*] Megan Anderson (8-2-0, +191)
Holly Holm is the All-Time #16 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (1-2-0)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1FW/#2DD/#3P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-06-17: W vs. [#9BW] Bethe Correia (10-3-1) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:09 of round 3
2017-02-11: L vs. [*] Germaine de Randamie (7-3-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Megan Anderson (3-0-0)
2017-01-14: W vs. [*] Charmaine Tweet (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Head Kick) in 2:05 of round 2
2016-07-29: W vs. [*] Peggy Morgan (4-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 1
2016-05-07: W vs. [#20FW] Amanda Bell (5-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 5:00 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 161, Megan Anderson 511
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera/Moraes (06-01-2018)

28 May , 2018,
jcs
one comments

Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Marlon Moraes (20-5-1, 135.4lb, -114) vs. [#6] Jimmie Rivera (21-1-0, 134.6lb, -109)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Jimmie Rivera is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (2-1-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#8BW] Aljamain Sterling (15-3-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-11-11: W vs. [#9BW] John Dodson (20-9-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 27-30)
2017-06-03: L vs. [#7BW] Raphael Assuncao (26-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jimmie Rivera (3-0-0)
2017-07-22: W vs. [#52BW] Thomas Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-09-10: W vs. [*] Urijah Faber (34-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-01-30: W vs. [#15BW] Iuri Alcantara (35-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Moraes 174, Jimmie Rivera 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#42] Jake Ellenberger (31-13-0, 170.4lb, -171) vs. [#81] Ben Saunders (21-9-2, 169.4lb, +143)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (1-2-0)
2017-04-22: L vs. [#36WW] Mike Perry (11-3-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:05 of round 2
2016-12-03: L vs. [#9WW] Jorge Masvidal (32-13-0) via TKO in 4:05 of round 1
2016-07-30: W vs. [#23WW] Matt Brown (21-16-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ben Saunders (1-2-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#41WW] Alan Jouban (16-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:38 of round 2
2017-05-28: L vs. [#67WW] Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 2:29 of round 2
2017-01-15: W vs. [#99WW] Court McGee (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 405, Ben Saunders 97
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#26] Nik Lentz (28-8-2, 155.4lb) vs. [*] Leonardo Santos (16-3-2)

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (2-1-0)
2017-11-18: W vs. [#40LW] Will Brooks (18-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2017-02-11: L vs. [#33LW] Islam Makhachev (15-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-25)
2016-09-10: W vs. [#528LW] Michael McBride (8-3-0) via TKO in 4:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2016-10-08: W vs. [#84LW] Adriano Martins (28-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-12-12: W vs. [#4LW] Kevin Lee (17-3-0) via TKO in 3:26 of round 1
2015-03-21: W vs. [#58WW] Tony Martin (13-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 195, Leonardo Santos 601
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (05-27-2018)

27 May , 2018,
jcs
one comments

Notable Info

  • Women’s Flyweight expanded by 10 — to 50.
  • Men’s Bantamweight expanded by 50 — to 450.

Fighters Missing Weight: Win Percentage?

26 May , 2018,
jcs
No Comments

On the topic of Darren Till coming in overweight again, I’ve seen more than a few instances of people citing statistics where fighters won at an astoundingly high rate in bouts where they missed weight.

Acquiring good data on MMA is hard enough, so we don’t have specifics on the intended divisional limit for all bouts.  However, we do have a ton of bouts with weigh-in data for both fighters.

I first retrieved a count of all pro MMA bouts that ended in a win, where we have actual weigh-in data that shows that both fighters were between 100 and 212 pounds (26,383).  The idea here is to exclude instances of bad data and Heavyweights.

Of these, I then looked at bouts where one fighter weighed between 1.75 and 6 pounds more than the other fighter.  This range seems arbitrary, but I was trying to avoid “freak show” type of matches, while also excluding cases where one fighter may be 169.5 and another at 171 (for example).  I got a surprisingly high count — 5,719.

Of these 5,719 bouts, the heavier fighter won 3,120 – 54.55%

When I change that window to a range of 1.25 pounds to 5 pounds, the win rate changes to 55.14%.

FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson/Till (05-27-2018)

23 May , 2018,
jcs
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Welterweight (170)
[#3] Stephen Thompson (14-2-1) vs. [#14] Darren Till (16-0-1)
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #16 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-1-1)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#8WW] Jorge Masvidal (32-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-03-04: L vs. [#1WW/#6DD/#5P4P] Tyron Woodley (18-3-1) via MD (48-47, 47-47, 48-47)
2016-11-12: D vs. [#1WW/#6DD/#5P4P] Tyron Woodley (18-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Darren Till (3-0-0)
2017-10-21: W vs. [#11WW] Donald Cerrone (33-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:20 of round 1
2017-09-02: W vs. [#125WW] Bojan Velickovic (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-05-28: W vs. [#154WW] Jessin Ayari (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stephen Thompson 204, Darren Till 218
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#10] Neil Magny (20-6-0) vs. [#137] Craig White (14-7-0)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #47 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2017-12-30: W vs. [#35WW] Carlos Condit (30-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-09-09: L vs. [#2WW/#10P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (28-9-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2016-12-30: W vs. [#26MW] Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Craig White (3-0-0)
2018-03-24: W vs. [#609WW] Alex Montagnani (9-3-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-10-14: W vs. [#267WW] Matt Inman (20-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2017-06-02: W vs. [#410WW] Hakon Foss (9-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:18 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 148, Craig White 64
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#85] Arnold Allen (12-1-0) vs. [#125] Mads Burnell (9-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Arnold Allen (3-0-0)
2017-03-18: W vs. [#105FW] Makwan Amirkhani (13-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2016-02-27: W vs. [*] Yaotzin Meza (21-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-06-20: W vs. [#109LW] Alan Omer (21-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:41 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Mads Burnell (2-1-0)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#146FW] Mike Santiago (21-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-09-02: L vs. [#33WW] Michel Prazeres (26-2-0) via Submission (North South Choke) in 1:26 of round 3
2016-11-11: W vs. [#508FW] Fernando Duarte Bagordach (23-5-0) via Submission (Japanese Necktie) in 1:21 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Arnold Allen 435, Mads Burnell 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (05-20-2018)

20 May , 2018,
jcs
4 comments

Notable Info

  • Rating alteration for divisional movement has been slightly strengthened for female fighters.