Bang for Your Buck: UFC 192

For UFC 192, Zuffa has put together a very strong fight card.  Though this event didn’t receive nearly the amount of hype that some of the cards headlined by Ronda Rousey or Conor McGregor have, I believe this to be the deepest card of the year to date.  This one is certainly worth the price of a Pay-Per-View on paper; the only negative thing I could say about this event is that a few of the matchups have a high likelihood of not living up to the potential – but that’s what you get with competitive matchmaking and wrestler-heavy line up.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#2 LHW] Daniel Cormier vs [#7 LHW] Alexander Gustafsson

Worth: $22.50

Why: This is a great fight in almost every aspect except for the the fact that it’s for a paper title.  Though the previous champion Jon Jones was stripped of the belt due to his legal issues, he has beaten both Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson, the former more convincingly than the latter. As Jones copped a plea deal and got off with a slap on the wrist (probation and community service), he will likely be back in action soon, which means that the winner of this fight is simply holding the championship belt warm for the true champ.  I am not going to make any predictions for this fight, but I do hope for a Gustafsson win as Gustafsson-Jones II would be far more interesting than Cormier-Jones II.

Fight:  [#4 LHW] Ryan Bader vs [NR] Rashad Evans

Worth: $15

Why: Merit-wise, Ryan Bader is more deserving of a title shot than Alex Gustafsson.  But it’s hard to argue that stylistically Gustafsson is a more interesting matchup for Cormier.  And so instead of a title shot, Bader gets to take on Rashad Evans – who has been out of action with injuries for nearly two years – in what was likely to be the top contender matchup for the winner of this card’s main event.  I say ‘was’, because as mentioned above, Jon Jones is likely to return to the Octagon sooner than expected and should fight for the title that he never lost immediately upon his return.

Still, the winner of this fight will be up there ‘in the mix’ for the next available title shot.  Evans and Bader are nearly mirror images of each other: strong wrestlers with knockout power, and both have had their share of boring, grinding fights.  I believe that Evans is slightly better than Bader in all aspects of the game, but his long layoff is worrisome, which makes this a very close fight.  Let’s just hope that it doesn’t turn out to be a snoozer.

Fight:  [#2 WW] Johny Hendricks  vs [#4 WW] Tyron Woodley

Worth: $15

Why: There is very little to say about this fight that I didn’t say about Bader vs Evans.  It’s almost eerie how similar the two fights are; both are featuring a couple of elite wrestlers with knockout power (which tends to diminish the longer the fight goes on).  Like Bader, who was passed up for an expected title shot in favor of Gustafsson, Hendricks also missed out on the rubber match with Robbie Lawler; instead Carlos Condit will take on Lawler – even though he has lost to both Hendricks and Woodley.  Regardless, the winner of this fight should be the next in line for Lawler or Condit.

Fight:  [#9 W135] Jessica Eye vs [#10 W135] Julianna Pena

Worth: $2.50

Why: Jessica Eye was recently being ‘eyed’ as a potential contender to Ronda Rousey’s title, but a loss to Meisha Tate leaves her with only one win in four UFC bouts, and far outside of the title picture.  On the other hand, Julianna Pena is 2-0 in the Octagon, with both wins coming by a first round TKO. Another win here should earn Pena a top-contender fight with Tate, who is on a four win streak but was passed over for a third fight with Rousey in favor of Holly Holm.

Fight:  [#30 HW] Shawn Jordan vs [#34 HW] Ruslan Magomedov

Worth: $5

Why: Shawn Jordan has a wrestling background, and for most of his UFC career fought like the prototypical wrestler with heavy hands, but showed a new wrinkle in his skill set when he knocked out Derrick Lewis with a spinning hook kick in his most recent bout.  He now gets to test his newly improved striking against Ruslan ‘Leopard’ Magomedov.  The ‘Leopard’ is an odd beast: a heavyweight kickboxer, with solid technique but an odd lack of knockout power for a guy his size.  Jordan may be better off going back to his wrestling and G’n’P roots against Magomedov, who from what I’ve seen so far will likely try to keep the fight standing and aim for a decision based on more accurate striking.  I am not envisioning the most exciting fight, but in the heavyweight division anything can happen.

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Fight:  [#2 FLW] Joseph Benavidez vs [NR] Ali Bagautinov

Worth: $10

Why: This fight has significant implications in a shallow flyweight division… sort of.  I say ‘sort of’ because #2 ranked Joe Benavidez has already lost to the champion Demetrious Johnson twice, the second time by a first round knockout, which will make a third matchup with the champ a difficult sell.   Ali Bagautinov is in a somewhat similar situation: though he has only fought Mighty Mouse once and went the distance, it was not a competitive fight by any means, and testing positive for EPO after the title fight earned Ali a year long suspension and didn’t do any favors to his divisional standing.  So even though the winner will be ranked near the top of the division, neither man is likely to earn a title shot in the immediate future.  Still, it’s a very solid fight to cap off the prelims, even thought it’s likely to go the distance.

Fight:  [#31 WW] Albert Tumenov vs [#60 WW] Alan Jouban

Worth: $10

Why: Here we have two great strikers with similar records, both boasting a 67% T/KO rate.  Alan Jouban employs quite a varied attack, and has shown a durable chin.  Albert Tumenov relies more on the basics, and has ridiculous punching power for his size.  I’m going to pick the younger fighter (Tumenov is 23 to Jouban’s 32), but it should be an exciting stand-up battle regardless of who ends up having their hand raised at the end.

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Fight:  [#28 LW] Adriano Martins vs [#86 LW] Islam Makhachev

Worth: $5

Why: This is an interesting lightweight bout that’s almost too good for Fight Pass prelims, which really shows the depth of the fight card.  Veteran fighter Adriano Martins is 3-1 in UFC with two finishes, his sole loss to the current #1 contender Donald Cerrone, and coming off an upset split decision win over Rustam Khabilov.  His opponent Islam Makhachev is undefeated, coming off a submission win over Leo Kuntz in his UFC debut.  Good striker-vs-grappler matchup that lacks in name value, but should deliver good action nonetheless.

Fight:  [#26 FLW] Chris Cariaso vs  [#35 FLW] Sergio Pettis

Worth: $2.50

Why: I am pretty much ready to write both of these guys off as failed prospects in a shallow division.  At 22, Sergio Pettis still has plenty of time to sharpen his skills and turn things around, but his lack of power and durability are not easy problems to fix.  34-year-old Chris Cariaso on the other hand clearly falls into the journeyman/gatekeeper category at this point.  However both guys are usually fun to watch, and this may be the last opportunity for Sergio to live up to his family name.

Fight:  [#31 HW] Viktor Pesta vs [#72 HW] Derrick Lewis

Worth: $1

Why: Derrick Lewis is one of the sloppiest fighters in the UFC today, and has very little going for him beyond knockout power.  I am not really sure what Viktor Pesta has going for him, but at the very least he has a gas tank which allowed him to outlast another knockout artist with poor cardio in Konstantin Erokhin.  This will probably be a similarly ugly and boring fight, but HW is the division where crazy things happen most often, so here’s a buck hoping that we see some craziness.

Fight:  [#228 LW] Francisco Trevino vs [#525 WW] Sage Northcutt

Worth: $1

Why: This is generally not the type of fight I would valuate at all, but there is almost a Conor McGregor level of hype surrounding Sage Northcutt’s UFC debut.  All the talk got me curious enough to throw in a dollar to see what this kid is all about.