Last week’s UFC Fight Night 67 : Condit vs Alves delivered a mixed bag, with several fun fights and great finishes mixed in with a couple of nearly unwatchable clinch-fests and Ryan Jimmo puking in a bucket in what was likely his last Octagon appearance. Another weekend, another fight night coming up. Let’s see what this one looks like on paper (or your screen, to be precise).
Main Event: [#17 MW] Dan Henderson vs [#20 MW] Tim Boetsch
Worth: $5
Why: These types of fights make me sad. Here we have a 44-year old legend of the sport, the only regret of his storied career being the failure to win UFC gold in the post-tournament era. He’s only won one fight in his past six; more concerningly, he has been stopped in his last three losses. Granted, all these fights have been against the cream of the crop at middleweight, light heavyweight, and even heavyweight fighters. Now in his second fight back at 185 lbs, Henderson is taking on Tim Boetsch – a tough, high-level journeyman brawler. The last time ‘Hendo’ fought fighters of that level were his matchups with Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral and Rafael ‘Feijao’ Cavalcante back in Strikeforce. And while he disposed of them handily, I don’t think he will have as easy of a time with Boetsch.
Four years is a long time for a fighter in his forties who is coming off a TRT regiment. While Henderson is a decorated wrestler, his best attributes as an MMA fighter have always been a rock solid chin, and a nuclear warhead of a right hand, aptly nicknamed ‘The H-Bomb’. After his last few fights, the legendary chin has been showing a few cracks, and while the H-Bomb is as powerful as ever, deteriorating hand speed and reflexes mean that Hendo will have fewer opportunities to plant it on his opponents. Boetsch is a big step down in competition compared to Henderson’s most recent UFC stint, but he is still a very dangerous opponent, and Dan should hang up the gloves for good if he can’t get past Tim.
Fight: [#9 HW] Ben Rothwell vs [#12 HW] Matt Mitrione
Worth: $15
Why: If I had to pick one definitive MMA trend of the year so far, it would have to be the revenge of the aging heavyweight: fighters who have been around for a very long time, and were once written off as being over-the-hill, have worked their way back to a Top 10 ranking and potential contendership discussion. Ben Rothwell certainly fits this trend. Ironically, his opponent Matt ‘Meathead’ Mitrione is actually 3 years the elder, despite having only 12 pro fights in his 5 year career – compared to Rothwell’s whopping 43 fights and 15+ years as a pro. Both guys have around a 90% finish ratio, so it’s a pretty safe bet that someone is going to sleep in this fight. The fighter who manages to remain standing once it’s over, might be only 1-2 fights away from a title shot.
Fight: [#25 LW] Dustin Poirier vs [#80 LW] Yancy Medeiros
Worth: $5
Why: One of the UFC most experienced featherweights, Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier has several times come close to a title shot, but always lost when stepping up to a certain level of competition. After a particularly disappointing loss to Conor McGregor, Poirier decided to shake things up and try his luck at 155 lbs. He looked great in his lightweight debut vs Carlos Diego Ferreira, and is being built back up slowly with another lower-ranked opponent. Yancy Medeiros is coming off two consecutive submission wins, albeit against much lesser competition. He might have a couple of moments in this fight but eventually he will be ran over by Poirier’s relentless attack.
Fight: [#15 FW] Thiago Tavares vs [#159 FW] Brian Ortega
Worth: $2.50
Why: I’ve always enjoyed watching Thiago Tavares fight. I once had high hopes for him as a prospect and future contender; while they’ve now dimmed quite a bit, he is still relatively young and seems to have benefited from dropping down to featherweight, so perhaps not all hope is lost. Brian Ortega is about in the same place that Thiago was early in his UFC career 7-8 years ago: an undefeated promising young prospect who would have been 9-0 if his last win was not overturned due to a failed PED test. It’s a huge mismatch from both the ranking and the experience standpoint, and I expect Thiago to beat Ortega handily. Should be a fun fight, either way.
Fight: [#39 BW] Francisco Rivera vs [#46 BW] Alex Caceres
Worth: $2.50
Why: Two fun mid-ranked fighters, both coming off a two-loss streak. Rivera got a rough deal with the eye poke in his last fight against Urijah Faber. Caceres is always fun to watch just because of his unconventional style. Meaningless from the ranking and contendership standpoint, but an interesting scrap nonetheless.
Fight: [#35 HW] Shawn Jordan vs [#55 HW] Derrick Lewis
Worth: $5
Why: Shawn Jordan and Derrick Lewis are no strangers to each other: Jordan defeated Lewis on the scorecards back in 2010, in what was Derrick’s second pro fight. Coincidentally, it was the only one of Jordan’s wins that went the distance. This is going to be a sloppy brawl and someone is going to get knocked out, probably whoever gasses fist. This fight has no implications in the big scheme of things, as I don’t think either fighter has the athleticism to ever make the Top 10 of even a shallow heavyweight division. Let’s just hope for a brutal knockout, rather than a grinding clinch-fest. The likelihood of this fight going long enough to turn into the latter is pretty low.
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Fox Sports 1 Event Worth: $35
Fox Sports 1 Event Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $30
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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $59.94
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-7.94
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Fox Sports 1 YTD Worth: $235.50
Fox Sports 1 YTD Valuation: $54
Fox Sports 1 YTD Net Value: $181.50