Fight Matrix

The Uncut Sports Show – UFC on Fuel TV: Renan Barao vs. Michael McDonald

Posted on February 15, 2013 by Oleg

We’re excited to announce a partnership with The Uncut Sports Show to present a different take on the latest happenings in the mixed martial arts world.

The Uncut Sports Show is an uncensored sports news show featuring co-hosts Kevin White and George Bedford who offer their brash, comic and often non-politically-correct views on a mix of topics ranging from sports, controversial sports news, pop culture, gaming, as well as the often ridiculous day-to-day lives of the hosts.

This Saturday the Fuel TV 7 card will air from historic Wembley Arena in London. The main event is features Renan Barao going up against Michael McDonald in a battle for the interim bantamweight title. Che Mills and Matthew Riddle will meet in a welterweight bout. Mills has won 7 of his last 8, with that one lost coming to Rory MacDonald. While Riddle has been dealing with personal obstacles stemming from his drug suspension last year, to the birth of twin daughters.

James Te-Huna will face Ryan Jimmo. These to light-heavyweights both possess loads of KO power. If you recall Ryan Jimmo recorded the fastest KO in UFC history the last time he stepped into the Octagon.Gunnar Nelson an undefeated BJJ blackbelt will try and keep his perfect MMA record on the line against Jorge Santiago. Santiago has been kind of hit or miss lately, and this will be his first fight back in the UFC.
Jimi Manuwa who is also undefeated in his MMA career with 12 wins and 11 coming by way of KO, will face Cyrille Diabate a former lengthy kickboxer who also has the ability to put you to sleep.Cub Swanson is on a three fight win streak, and during this streak he has finished every one of his opponents. Dustin Poirer would like to put an end to that in this featherweight matchup.

Finally we have the interim Bantamweight title with Barao going up against McDonald. McDonald is impressive at 15-1 and his last two fights he finished his opponents with impressive KO’s. However he has a huge task in facing Barao who currently holds one of the longest unbeaten streaks in MMA today at 29 fights dating back to 2005.

FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel 7 (02-16-2013)

Posted on February 15, 2013 by Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1] Renan Barao (29-1-0, 134.0lb) vs. [#6] Michael McDonald (15-1-0, 134.0lb)
Renan Barao is the All-Time #19 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Michael McDonald is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Renan Barao (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#3BW] Urijah Faber (26-6-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#22BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-11-05: W vs. [#11BW] Brad Pickett (22-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael McDonald (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#38BW] Miguel Torres (40-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2011-11-19: W vs. [#232BW] Alex Soto (6-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#15FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renan Barao 210, Michael McDonald 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8] Cub Swanson (18-5-0, 146.0lb) vs. [#21] Dustin Poirier (13-2-0, 145.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#31FW] Charles Oliveira (16-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:40 of round 1
2012-06-22: W vs. [#41LW] Ross Pearson (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#58FW] George Roop (12-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#81FW] Jonathan Brookins (13-6-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2012-05-15: L vs. [#12FW] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2012-02-04: W vs. [#64FW] Max Holloway (7-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 3:23 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 147, Dustin Poirier 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34] Cyrille Diabate (19-8-1, 206.0lb) vs. [#36] Jimi Manuwa (12-0-0, 204.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Cyrille Diabate (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#144LHW] Chad Griggs (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:44 of round 1
2012-04-14: W vs. [#238MW] Tom DeBlass (7-2-0) via MD (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-11-05: L vs. [#39LHW] Anthony Perosh (13-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jimi Manuwa (3-0-0)
2012-09-29: W vs. [#78LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#94LHW] Antony Rea (24-14-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 1
2011-10-22: W vs. [#380LHW] Nick Chapman (3-2-0) via TKO (Knees) in 2:14 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cyrille Diabate 91, Jimi Manuwa 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2

[#4 LHW] Corey Anderson

[#10 LHW] Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov

Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Denis Goltsov
Last 5: NC L W W W

Last Fight Date: 11/29/2024 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#21 MW] Impa Kasanganay
Last 5: W W W W W

Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2

[#9 LW] Usman Nurmagomedov (-164)

[#14 LW] Paul Hughes (+128)

Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#14 LW] Paul Hughes
Last 5: W W NC W W

Last Fight Date: 5/10/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#51 LW] Bruno Miranda
Last 5: W W W L W

Saturday, November 8th 2025: Dynamite MMA 4 - Nov. 8

[#4 W105] Andressa Romero

[#20 W105] Claire Lopez

Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira
Last 5: W L L W L

Last Fight Date: 4/04/2025 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#12 W105] Taynara Silva
Last 5: W W L L L

Featured Fighters

[#3 FW]	Diego Lopes	[#19 FW]	Jean Silva
[#2 LW]	Ilia Topuria	[#1 LW]	Islam Makhachev
[NR]	Matt Brown	[#4 LW]	Charles Oliveira
[NR]	Conor McGregor	[#90 WW]	Daniil Donchenko
[NR]	Chris Lytle	[#1 MW]	Khamzat Chimaev

The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 4 Review

Posted on February 13, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 4, Team Jones gets on the board with the first notable upset of the season, as Collin Hart controlls Kevin ‘The King’ Casey for a unanimous 20-18 decision.

Team Sonnen 2, Team Jones 1.

Next week: Bubba McDaniel vs Kelvin Gastelum.

Here’s who remains:
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UFC on Fuel 7 / Ratings vs. Odds

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites. Like most other financial decisions in life, you can make a best effort to find improved MMA betting odds to suit your individual needs.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds (UFC on Fuel 7)

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Gomez vs. Harris	Gomez (-243 / Moderate)	Gomez (1.02x / Pick ‘Em)	Harris	#4
Lee vs. Tezuka	Lee (-199 / Moderate)	Tezuka (1.61x / Moderate)	Tezuka	#4
Nedkov vs. Watson	Watson (-128 / Very Small)	Nedkov (1.45x / Small)	PASS	#1, #4
Grispi vs. Ogle	Grispi (-129 / Very Small)	Grispi (1.04x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#4
Sass vs. Castillo	Sass (-113 / Pick ‘Em)	Sass (1.06x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#4
Etim vs. Forte	Etim (-315 / Large)	Etim (1.84x / Moderate)	PASS	#4
Riddle vs. Mills	Mills (-228 / Moderate)	Mills (1.04x / Pick ‘Em)	Riddle	#4
Te Huna vs. Jimmo	Te Huna (-205 / Moderate)	Jimmo (1.67x / Moderate)	Jimmo	#3
Nelson vs. Santiago	Nelson (-243 / Moderate)	Santiago (2.21x / Large)	PASS	#1, #3
Manuwa vs. Diabate	Manuwa (-226 / Moderate)	Diabate (1.11x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#3, #4
Swanson vs. Poirier	Swanson (-133 / Very Small)	Swanson (1.53x / Moderate)	Swanson
Barao vs. McDonald	Barao (-318 / Large)	Barao (1.84x / Moderate)	PASS

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks, mainly focused around the venue.

Favorites to consider: Swanson is the only favorite worth a bet and a small one at that. He has been on quite a roll lately and I would go with him here.

Underdogs to consider:

Riddle over Mills – The ratings suggest that this is almost an even fight. With the home advantage, Mills is a very slight favorite, but I think Riddle is worth a very small bet.
Harris over Gomez – See above, but I think the home advantage makes this almost exactly a 50/50, so it’s a marginally better bet than above.
Tezuka over Lee – Even with the nationality adjustments we do, I’m always leery of recommending the Japanese fighter on foreign soil. Though, I cannot ignore that Tezuka projects as a relatively solid favorite.
Jimmo over Te Huna – This seems to be the big bet to run with on this card. Jimmo projects to win. If you’re going to bet large, I’d say, go with Jimmo.

Current MMA Rankings Updated

Posted on February 10, 2013 by Jason

Notable Info

Men’s Strawweight rankings now available. We will start this division with a limit of 120 pounds, which will include “tweener” divisions like URCC Pinweight (119lb) and Pancrase “Regular” Flyweight (120lb). We may decide to cut this off at a lower weight to put the aforementioned divisions into Flyweight, or move it up by one pound (so that it also includes all 55kg fights) in the future.
Men’s Flyweight changed from “Under 131 pounds” to 121-129lb.
Men’s Bantamweight changed from 131-138lb to 130-138lb.

The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 3 Review

Posted on February 7, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 3, Team Sonnen widens the lead and keeps control of the matchups as Uriah Hall knocked out Adam Cella with a brutal spinning kick that left Cella unconscious for several minutes.

Team Sonnen 2, Team Jones 0.

Next week: Kevin Casey vs Collin Hart.

Here’s who remains:
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Spinanga

Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated: 02-03-2013

Posted on February 3, 2013 by Jason

Notable Info

Featherweight expanded to 400 (was 350).
Women’s Flyweight expanded to 20 (was 15).
Strawweight division (120lbs and under) now available in All-Time Rankings. Flyweight changed to 121-129lbs and Bantamweight to 130-138lbs. These changes will also be reflected in next week’s standard rankings.

New Feature: Fighter Team Affiliation

Posted on February 1, 2013 by Oleg

We’ve added another new feature – the team/gym affiliation for ranked fighters is now displayed in the Fighter Info popup (along with other interesting stats – you can view when you hover over a fighter’s name in our ranking pages).

In the future, we’ll add the ability to filter rankings on the Team Affiliation, as well as some other cool stuff.

Thank forum member kedbecker for this suggestion!

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Future Ranking System Additions/Changes

Posted on February 1, 2013 by Jason

Changes in the Next Update

Featherweight will be expanded to Top 400 (from 350). This is to accommodate the increased strength of the division.
Women’s Flyweight division will be expanded to Top 20 (from 15).
The Lightweight division limit will be reduced from 162 to 161. 162lb fights will now be considered Welterweight fights. There may be some fluctuations in the rankings as a result of this change.

Near-Future Changes

New division rankings for Men’s Strawweight “115lb” division.
Re-alignment of weight range considered for Men’s Flyweight and Bantamweight divisions.

UFC on 156 / Odds vs. Ratings (02-02-2013)

Posted on January 31, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Camus vs. Kimura	Camus (-156 / Small)	Kimura (1.15x / Very Small)	PASS	#1
Rivera vs. Figueroa	Rivera (-300 / Large)	Figueroa (1.45x / Small)	Figueroa
Volkmann vs. Green	Volkmann (-353 / Large)	Volkmann (1.62x / Moderate)	Green
Edwards vs. Vallie-Flagg	Edwards (-269 / Moderate)	Edwards (1.49x / Moderate)	PASS
Woodley vs. Hieron	Woodley (-150 / Small)	Hieron (1.01x / Nearly Even)	Hieron
Tibau vs. Dunham	Tibau (-117 / Pick ‘Em)	Tibau (1.24x / Very Small)	PASS
Benavidez vs. McCall	Benavidez (-251 / Moderate)	Benavidez (1.75x / Moderate)	PASS
Fitch vs. Maia	Fitch (-184 / Moderate)	Maia (1.24x / Very Small)	Maia
Overeem vs. Silva	Overeem (-382 / Large)	Overeem (2.10x / Large)	PASS	#2
Evans vs. Little Nog	Evans (-486 / Large)	Evans (2.73x / Very Large)	Evans
Aldo vs. Edgar	Aldo (-216 / Moderate)	Edgar (1.32x / Small)	PASS	#1, #2

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. I really want to call Edgar a good bet, given that he’s moving in with an initial point advantage against Aldo and considering Aldo’s recent inactivity. Though, there are too many question marks here.

Favorites to consider: Evans. He is already a large favorite, but he projects as an even larger favorite. Great parlay material.

Underdogs to consider: This appears to be a great event for the underdogs.

Green over Volkmann – This is the ol’ Hail Mary. Volkmann is the legitimate favorite, but Green is a bit undervalued. A good bet to (potentially) lose a few bucks on.
Hieron over Woodley – A great value if you think the combo that Nate laid on Woodley was damaging. Otherwise, it’s a fair bet as the system thinks this is even money, so, go Hieron.
Maia over Fitch – Maia is still lacking a big win at Welterweight, but he may get it here. Fitch looked good last time out, but Silva wasn’t proven. Medium bet on Maia.
Figueroa over Rivera – Every so often we get a sizeable disagreement between the ratings and odds. Either steer clear, or go big on Figueora.

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FightMatrix Program: UFC 156 (02-02-2013)

Posted on January 30, 2013 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#2LW/#9DD] Frankie Edgar (15-3-1) vs. [#1/#8DD] Jose Aldo (21-1-0)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #20 ranked Absolute fighter.
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (1-2-0)
2012-08-11: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#6LW] Gray Maynard (11-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#10FW] Chad Mendes (13-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-04-30: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via UD (48-45, 48-46, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 175, Jose Aldo 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) vs. [#15] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5-0)
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is the All-Time #13 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10LHW] Phil Davis (10-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-08-06: W vs. [*] Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (1-2-0)
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) via TKO (Punches and Elbows to the Body) in 3:15 of round 1
2011-03-26: L vs. [#10LHW] Phil Davis (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-09-25: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rashad Evans 287, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 420
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rashad Evans leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3/#10DD] Alistair Overeem (36-11-0) vs. [#7] Antonio Silva (17-4-0)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #15 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (3-0-0)
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-06-18: W vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2010-12-31: W vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:19 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (13-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#1HW+/#1DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-09-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 400, Antonio Silva 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alistair Overeem leads 1-0
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The Ultimate Fighter 17: Episode 2 Recap

Posted on January 30, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 2, the first team-vs-team bout took place and Team Jones took their first casualty as Gilbert Smith was knocked out in the second round, courtesy of a flying knee from Luke Barnatt.

Interestingly, a number of Team Jones voiced a vote of no confidences in their teammate prior to the fight, and even asked the coaches to change the matchup as they felt Gilbert’s conditioning was not up to par. Coach Jones stuck by his pick, and though Smith lost it turned out his conditioning had little to do with it.

Team Sonnen 1, Team Jones 0.

Here’s who remains:
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MMA Rankings Updated: 01-27-2013

Posted on January 27, 2013 by Jason

UFC on FOX 6 / Odds vs. Ratings (01-26-2012)

Posted on January 24, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Mitchell vs. Thoresen	Thoresen (-235 / Moderate)	Thoresen (1.08x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#2
Natal vs. Spencer	Natal (-250 / Moderate)	Natal (1.51x / Moderate)	PASS
Krauss vs. Stumpf	Krauss (-245 / Moderate)	Krauss (1.60x / Moderate)	PASS
Russow vs. Jordan	Russow (-187 / Moderate)	Russow (2.28x / Large)	Russow
Bader vs. Matyushenko	Bader (-523 / Very Large)	Bader (3.47x / Very Large)	PASS
Hioki vs. Guida	Guida (-244 / Moderate)	Guida (1.44x / Small)	PASS	#1
Grant vs. Wiman	Grant (-120 / Pick ‘Em)	Grant (1.17x / Very Small)	PASS
Koch vs. Lamas	Koch (-153 / Small)	Lamas (1.87x / Large)	Lamas	#2
Cerrone vs. Pettis	Pettis (-120 / Pick ‘Em)	Cerrone (1.17x / Very Small)	Cerrone
Jackson vs. Teixeira	Teixeira (-320 / Large)	Jackson (2.37x / Large)	PASS	#3
Johnson vs. Dodson	Johnson (-225 / Moderate)	Johnson (2.50x / Large)	Johnson

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. I really want to call Jackson and Mitchell good bets, but I just can’t justify doing so. If you really feel ballsy, then drop a couple bucks on these guys. They are borderline picks.

Favorites to consider: Johnson, Russow. These fighters are the betting favorites, but the rating difference suggest that they are not large enough favorites by odds.

Underdogs to consider

Cerrone over Pettis. Pettis is the betting favorite, while Cerrone is the ratings favorite. Cerrone is worth a small bet.
Lamas over Koch. The inactivity of Koch is a gotcha, but if I’m betting, it’s on Lamas.

The Ultimate Fighter 17: Episode 1 Recap

Posted on January 23, 2013 by Oleg

Here we go again, with another season of the seemingly endless Ultimate Fighter series. This one is featuring fourteen middleweights, and coached by the reigning UFC lightheavyweight champion Jon Jones and his next challenger Chael Sonnen. As has been the case in most recent seasons, the show starts out with 28 fighters facing off in the first episode, with the winners moving into the ‘TUF’ house and the losers going home.

Some notable facts, thus far:

Sweden’s Tor ‘The Hammer’ Troeng is the only Top 50 ranked fighter on the season, head and shoulders above the remaining pool.
Only fourteen fighters are in the house instead of the usual sixteen; two of the first-round losers will be brought back in ‘wildcard’ spots.
Most of the preliminary matchups were won by the higher ranked fighter (11/14)
There is a much more even distribution of ranked fighters among the two teams than in Season 16 (which was ultimately won by the unranked Colton Smith)

After the fights are over, coaches pick their teams, and here’s how they stack up:

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