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Cutting The Safe Fighters – Problem Or Solution?

Posted on April 12, 2014 by Ked Becker

A while ago I wrote about the uselessness of accusing the fighters of not fighting in an exciting way or not trying to finish fights. I said that the rules encourage safe fighting and that as long as the rules would not change safe fighting will continue to be a significant part of the sport.

The UFC wants to be sanctioned and that’s why they accept the Unified Rules of MMA, with their 10-point must system. I believe the UFC are now big enough and strong enough to be able to influence these rules if they wanted to, but that’s another matter.   The important thing now is that they are bound by these rules and must follow them.

The problem that they now face is how to avoid the slow but steady decline of fighters to point-fighting while adhering to the same set of rules and without influencing the judges.   The way Dana White has chosen to do this is by cutting any fighter who seems to be fighting safely, even when they are considered among the best in the world.

It started with the surprising release of Jon Fitch, followed by that of Yushin Okami, the lack of interest in signing Ben Askren, and now the release of Jake Shields.

The UFC cannot affect the rules but they can control the fighters, and they try to make them fight excitingly by keeping only those who bring the action, and threatening to cut those who don’t.

There is a lot of criticism surrounding this strategy.   It is said that MMA is a sport, while the UFC is becoming a spectacle.   Instead of trying to find who the best fighters in the world are, they are just trying to put on crowd-pleasing fights and make money.

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Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night – Nogueira/Nelson (04-11-2014)

Posted on April 10, 2014 by Jason

Heavyweight (255)
[#12] Roy Nelson (19-9-0, 255.5lb, -131) vs. [#13] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-8-1, 238.0lb, +106)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (1-2-0)
2013-10-19: L vs. [#7LHW] Daniel Cormier (14-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-06-15: L vs. [#8HW+] Stipe Miocic (11-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#19HW+] Cheick Kongo (20-9-2) via KO (Punches) in 2:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (1-2-0)
2013-06-08: L vs. [#4HW+] Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:41 of round 2
2012-10-13: W vs. [#101HW+] Dave Herman (21-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#11HW+] Frank Mir (16-9-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 174, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 307
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira leads 4-3
.

Featherweight (146)
[#10] Clay Guida (30-14-0, 146.0lb, -130) vs. [#19] Tatsuya Kawajiri (33-7-2, 146.0lb, +106)

Last 3 Fights: Clay Guida (1-2-0)
2013-08-31: L vs. [#2FW/#10P4P] Chad Mendes (16-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 3
2013-01-26: W vs. [#24FW] Hatsu Hioki (27-7-2) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-06-22: L vs. [#19LW] Gray Maynard (11-3-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-0-0)
2014-01-04: W vs. [#130FW] Sean Soriano (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:50 of round 2
2012-12-31: W vs. [#103FW] Michihiro Omigawa (13-14-1) via UD ()
2012-03-31: W vs. [#129FW] Donald Sanchez (29-14-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Clay Guida 223, Tatsuya Kawajiri 97
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Clay Guida leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (171)
[#30] John Howard (22-8-0, 171.0lb, +298) vs. [#32] Ryan LaFlare (10-0-0, 171.0lb, -374)

Last 3 Fights: John Howard (3-0-0)
2013-12-28: W vs. [#41WW] Siyar Bahadurzada (21-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-17: W vs. [#29MW] Uriah Hall (8-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2013-06-07: W vs. [#1658WW] Chris Woodall (1-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ryan LaFlare (3-0-0)
2013-12-14: W vs. [#42WW] Court McGee (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-11-09: W vs. [#173WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-04-06: W vs. [#144WW] Ben Alloway (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: John Howard 104, Ryan LaFlare 118
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2
 [#4 LHW] Corey Anderson [#10 LHW] Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov
Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Denis Goltsov
Last 5: NC L W W W
Last Fight Date: 11/29/2024 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#21 MW] Impa Kasanganay
Last 5: W W W W W
Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2
 [#9 LW] Usman Nurmagomedov (-164) [#14 LW] Paul Hughes (+128)
Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#14 LW] Paul Hughes
Last 5: W W NC W W
Last Fight Date: 5/10/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#51 LW] Bruno Miranda
Last 5: W W W L W
Saturday, November 8th 2025: Dynamite MMA 4 - Nov. 8
 [#4 W105] Andressa Romero [#20 W105] Claire Lopez
Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira
Last 5: W L L W L
Last Fight Date: 4/04/2025 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#12 W105] Taynara Silva
Last 5: W W L L L

Featured Fighters

[#3 FW]  Diego Lopes [#19 FW]  Jean Silva
[#2 LW]  Ilia Topuria [#1 LW]  Islam Makhachev
[NR]  Matt Brown [#4 LW]  Charles Oliveira
[NR]  Conor McGregor [#90 WW]  Daniil Donchenko
[NR]  Chris Lytle [#1 MW]  Khamzat Chimaev
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (04-09-2014)

Posted on April 9, 2014 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Refinement of veteran profiling adjustment due to results of objective analysis.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (04-06-2014)

Posted on April 6, 2014 by Jason

Notable Info

  • The latest rankings include the initial iteration of “veteran profiling”, which will help prevent continual overrating of experienced fighters.  Although code is in place to prevent this from a general perspective, some experienced late-career fighters creep back up the rankings with incremental point bursts without ever fighting top competition again only to perpetually drop the ball against lower rated competition.
    The belief is that if they did fight top competition, they would lose and have their progress reversed or at least halted more often.  This is evidenced by multiple losses to lower-rated competition, which have been treated consistently across the board… this will no longer be the case, though this initial version is very mild in its effects.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-31-2014)

Posted on March 31, 2014 by Jason
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WSoF 9 – Rousimar Palhares Vs. Steve Carl

Posted on March 30, 2014 by Ked Becker

Watching the fight I was surprised by Carl’s strategy: not only did he let Palhares get the takedown relatively easily, after that he had full guard and yet decided to go for a Triangle choke against one of the best BJJ artists in the game.  It’s not like he got lucky and Palhares fell into a Triangle position and Carl tried to capitalize on it.  He tried to manufacture it out of thin air.

I have to admire him for his courage and risk taking, but this was very foolish against a guy like Palhares.

Palhares, of course, quickly turned the situation into another spectacular heel hook, showing once again his amazing submission skills.

Palhares again seemed to hold a little too long, though nothing that would jeopardize his future in WSOF.  But the fact that even after he was released from the UFC for this behavior he still seems not to be able to entirely not do it, shows, in my opinion, that’s it’s a bit out of his control.  He is so focused on the moment that he is just oblivious to what happens around him.   When most submission artists feel their opponents’ tap they continue to hold the position but release the pressure, waiting for the call by the referee, thus allowing themselves to continue to squeeze in case the referee doesn’t stop the fight, and the opponent tries to continue to fight, which is not such a big risk since the cameras usually catch the tap (Anderson Silva Vs. Chael Sonnen 1).

But not Palhares.   Not only does he continue to squeeze after the tap, it even takes him some time to notice the referee is pulling his hand away.  It’s not done maliciously, but that doesn’t make it any less dangerous.

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Nick Newell’s title opportunity

Posted on March 28, 2014 by Ked Becker

Nick Newell, the one-armed man, was just named the next fighter to fight for the WSOF lightweight title.   So I checked the Lightweight Rankings filtered to WSOF and found, not surprisingly, that Newell is ranked #12 in WSOF, which means there are quite a few fighters more deserving of a title shot than him.

It’s an obvious publicity trick by WSOF, trying to get attention through Newell’s uniqueness, and not his fighting record.  I’m just disappointed with the MMA media which didn’t see fit to call this, and for the most part just reported the news as if it was just another MMA title fight.

Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-27-2014)

Posted on March 27, 2014 by Jason

Notable Info (Intermediate Release)

  • Fixed bug which affected some newly ranked women to be incorrectly interpreted as men for rating calculation purposes.  Due to division differences, this caused some newly ranked women to be rated higher than they should’ve been for their debut ranking.  This always resolved itself on the second run, but now it is no longer an issue.
  • Very minor tweak with regards to handling of super-elite fighters with a habit of fighting sporadically while keeping a strong opposition profile.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-23-2014)

Posted on March 23, 2014 by Jason
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UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson (03-23-2014)

Posted on March 17, 2014 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#9] Dan Henderson (29-11-0, +186) vs. [#10] Mauricio Rua (22-8-0, -221)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #9 ranked Absolute fighter.
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #23 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (0-3-0)
2013-11-09: L vs. [#3MW/#9DD] Vitor Belfort (24-10-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:17 of round 1
2013-06-15: L vs. [#2LHW] Rashad Evans (21-3-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-02-23: L vs. [#2MW/#8DD/#8P4P] Lyoto Machida (21-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (1-2-0)
2013-12-07: W vs. [#21LHW] James Te Huna (16-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 1
2013-08-17: L vs. [#8LHW] Chael Sonnen (28-14-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:47 of round 1
2012-12-08: L vs. [#4LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (16-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 134, Mauricio Rua 106
Previous Match-up Record: Dan Henderson leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mauricio Rua leads 8-6
.

Middleweight (185)
[#49] C.B. Dollaway (13-5-0) vs. [#62] Cezar Ferreira (7-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: C.B. Dollaway (2-1-0)
2013-10-19: L vs. [#15MW] Tim Boetsch (17-6-0) via SD (30-26, 27-29, 30-26)
2013-01-19: W vs. [#90MW] Daniel Sarafian (8-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-05-26: W vs. [*] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (3-0-0)
2013-11-09: W vs. [#90MW] Daniel Sarafian (8-4-0) via SD (28-29, 30-28, 30-27)
2013-08-03: W vs. [#235MW] Thiago Santos (8-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:47 of round 1
2012-06-23: W vs. [#81WW] Sergio Moraes (8-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: C.B. Dollaway 155, Cezar Ferreira 134
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#80WW] Leonardo Santos (12-3-0) vs. [#72] Norman Parke (19-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2013-06-08: W vs. [#111WW] William Macario (7-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:43 of round 2
2012-09-01: W vs. [#221LW] Mark Holst (12-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [#1165FW] Gilmar Silva Milhorance (2-10-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Norman Parke (3-0-0)
2013-10-26: W vs. [#289LW] Jon Tuck (7-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2013-07-06: W vs. [#147LW] Kazuki Tokudome (12-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#187LW] Colin Fletcher (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 288, Norman Parke 148
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-16-2014)

Posted on March 16, 2014 by Jason

Notable Info

  • [#31] Konstantin Gluhov, one of the most inconsistent fringe contenders you’ve never heard of, pops back into the Top 50 at Heavyweight for what seems to be the billionth time, with a win over respectable journeyman [#55] Kenny Garner.
  • Speaking of Heavyweight journeymen, [#64] James Thompson returned with a win over now barely ranked, [#232] Colin Robinson.  Amazingly, Thompson is 4-0 with a no contest, in his last 5.  Though 3 of those wins are against former pro wrestlers and musclebound freak-shows.  I don’t know enough about Robinson to categorize him as such.
  • A three-headed dragon has emerged at Welterweight for the top contender spot, between [#2] Rory MacDonald, [#3] Hector Lombard, and [#4] Tyron Woodley.  My gut tells me we’ll see MacDonald get the shot at one of the Canadian shows in September or October.  Lombard/Woodley makes a good “next contender” match, but leaves [#5] Robbie Lawler as the odd man out.
  • Page 3 of the Featherweight rankings yield a “WTF” moment, as one will notice we got a late result for [#147] Alexandre Franca Nogueira who jumped 74 spots. Yes, the same Nogueira that was basically the top Featherweight between 2000 and 2005.
  • It appears the wheels have finally come off of the leftovers from the golden era of the Shooto 56kg division, as [#62] Yasuhiro Urushitani and [#65] Shinchi Kojima both were beaten in their respective bouts this past weekend.  Ratings-wise they were both in nearly 50/50 fights and in all fairness, Kojima’s opponent badly missed weight, but they join [#68] Mamoru Yamaguchi in the same segment of the Flyweight rankings.

Hendricks has a long way to catch GSP: All-Time Ranking History

Posted on March 13, 2014 by Jason

A follow-up to a previous post on the Welterweight All-Time Picture.

Welterweight All-Time

 

Zoom in on the Fitch ceiling and below.

 

First, some general info:

  • Everyone’s overall trend is upward in the chart due to increased quality of data, amongst other things. Essentially, the “value” of a point decreased.
  • Some of the “noise” caused by test runs were cleaned up from the previous post.
  • Current Welterweight All-Time rank is listed next to the fighter names.
  • All fighters listed have been in the Top 10 at Welterweight since we started storing the career rankings.
  • Only Top 10 point totals are displayed for the listed fighters.
  • Fighters with dotted data lines are no longer in the Top 10.
  • I’ve often commented to readers that effects on the list are not entirely immediate.  There is usually some immediate effect to results, but as you can see in the graph, the term “rolling average” is probably a much more accurate way to explain the movement.  The methodology was created in such a way for many reasons.
  • Kiuma Kunioku saw his all-time point eligibility change from Welterweight to Middleweight for his early Pancrase accomplishments.  This was due to some minor division re-adjustment and how we considered those pioneer day results.  The other “dotted line” fighters were simply surpassed.

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 171 (03-15-2014)

Posted on March 9, 2014 by Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1] Johny Hendricks (15-2-0, -401) vs. [#4] Robbie Lawler (22-9-0, +312)
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #20 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (2-1-0)
2013-11-16: L vs. [*] Georges St. Pierre (25-2-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#3WW] Carlos Condit (29-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#14WW] Martin Kampmann (20-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (3-0-0)
2013-11-16: W vs. [#2WW] Rory MacDonald (16-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2013-07-27: W vs. [#191WW] Bobby Voelker (24-11-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 0:24 of round 2
2013-02-23: W vs. [#29WW] Josh Koscheck (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johny Hendricks 119, Robbie Lawler 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#3] Carlos Condit (29-7-0, -176) vs. [#12] Tyron Woodley (12-2-0, +148)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (1-2-0)
2013-08-28: W vs. [#14WW] Martin Kampmann (20-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 0:54 of round 4
2013-03-16: L vs. [#1WW] Johny Hendricks (15-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-11-17: L vs. [*] Georges St. Pierre (25-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Tyron Woodley (2-1-0)
2013-11-16: W vs. [#29WW] Josh Koscheck (17-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2013-06-15: L vs. [#5WW] Jake Shields (29-6-1) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-02-02: W vs. [*] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 199, Tyron Woodley 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#5] Jake Shields (29-6-1, +158) vs. [#8] Hector Lombard (33-4-1, -192)
Jake Shields is the All-Time #4 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Shields (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-10-09: W vs. [#11WW] Demian Maia (18-6-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 47-48)
2013-06-15: W vs. [#12WW] Tyron Woodley (12-2-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-11: NC vs. [#43MW] Ed Herman (21-10-0)

Last 3 Fights: Hector Lombard (2-1-0)
2013-10-19: W vs. [#24WW] Nate Marquardt (32-13-2) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 1
2013-03-03: L vs. [#10MW] Yushin Okami (29-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#15WW] Rousimar Palhares (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Shields 157, Hector Lombard 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jake Shields leads 1-0
.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-09-2014)

Posted on March 9, 2014 by Jason

Melvin Guillard – Consistently or Inconsistently Good?

Posted on March 8, 2014 by Jason

With another loss, I couldn’t help but think that Melvin Guillard is one of the most inconsistent long-time fringe contenders that I can recall.  Does this mean he’s inconsistently good or consistently good?  After all, he keeps on keeping on, continually reaching a status of top-level journeyman after losing.

Using the Generated Historical Rankings as analytical fuel, it turns out that Melvin Guillard is 1 of only 10 fighters to have at least 25 quarterly rankings in the Lightweight division, with none of them in the Top 5 or below the Top 150 and an average ranking equal or better than #50.

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Current MMA Rankings

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