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Current MMA Rankings Updated (02-15-2015)

Posted on February 15, 2015 by Jason

Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 60

Posted on February 12, 2015 by Oleg

After a fairly strong start of 2015, UFC has hit another slog.  Though the first two Pay-Per-View events of the year were entertaining and brought strong ratings, the aftermath of the fights was overshadowed by the high-profile drug test failures in the main events of UFC 182 and 183.  Meanwhile the “injury bug” has been taking some PED’s of it’s own, and pretty much decimated the next 3 upcoming cards, leaving us without much to look forward to in the month of February.  Sure, there is a fight card every weekend for the rest of the month, but all three cards leave a lot to be desired.  Let’s start with the upcoming UFC Fight Night 60: Henderson vs Thatch, broadcast on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Main Event:  [#4 LW] Ben Henderson vs  [NR] Brandon Thatch

Worth: $10

Why:  Sometimes there is a bit of silver lining in all the line-up changes due to injuries, and we actually end up with a more interesting fight as a result.  I believe this is the case here.  Originally, Brandon Thatch was supposed to face Stephen Thompson on this card,  as the co-main event to Matt Brown vs Tarec Saffiedine. After Saffiedine withdrew from the fight with an injury, Thompson vs Thatch was promoted to main event – until Thompson also dropped off the card. Fortunately, Ben Henderson was looking to make a quick turn-around and rebound from his two loss streak, and offered to move up to welterweight on short notice.

I find this fight to be slightly more interesting than either of the previously scheduled main events for this card, mainly because it’s a very unpredictable match-up of styles instead of striker-vs-striker. There are many other questions to be answered here:  how will Henderson look as a welterweight, and how will he deal with the size disadvantage?  Will Thatch be affected by the long layoff?  Is he ready to take on an elite wrestler in his first five-round bout?   I’m looking forward to finding out the answers on Saturday.

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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2
 [#4 LHW] Corey Anderson [#10 LHW] Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov
Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Denis Goltsov
Last 5: NC L W W W
Last Fight Date: 11/29/2024 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#21 MW] Impa Kasanganay
Last 5: W W W W W
Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2
 [#9 LW] Usman Nurmagomedov (-164) [#14 LW] Paul Hughes (+128)
Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#14 LW] Paul Hughes
Last 5: W W NC W W
Last Fight Date: 5/10/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#51 LW] Bruno Miranda
Last 5: W W W L W
Saturday, November 8th 2025: Dynamite MMA 4 - Nov. 8
 [#4 W105] Andressa Romero [#20 W105] Claire Lopez
Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira
Last 5: W L L W L
Last Fight Date: 4/04/2025 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#12 W105] Taynara Silva
Last 5: W W L L L

Featured Fighters

[#3 FW]  Diego Lopes [#1 LW]  Islam Makhachev
[#2 LW]  Ilia Topuria [#19 FW]  Jean Silva
[NR]  Matt Brown [#4 LW]  Charles Oliveira
[NR]  Conor McGregor [#1 MW]  Khamzat Chimaev
[NR]  Chris Lytle [#90 WW]  Daniil Donchenko
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Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night: Henderson/Thatch (02-14-2015)

Posted on February 11, 2015 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#4LW] Ben Henderson (21-5-0) vs. [*] Brandon Thatch (11-1-0)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #23 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (1-2-0)
2015-01-18: L vs. [#2LW/#9DD/#9P4P] Donald Cerrone (27-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-08-23: L vs. [#3LW] Rafael dos Anjos (23-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:31 of round 1
2014-06-07: W vs. [#25LW] Rustam Khabilov (17-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:16 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Thatch (3-0-0)
2013-11-09: W vs. [#143WW] Paulo Thiago (15-8-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:10 of round 1
2013-08-28: W vs. [#270LW] Justin Edwards (8-4-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 1:23 of round 1
2013-03-22: W vs. [#198WW] Mike Rhodes (5-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 27, Brandon Thatch 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#15] Max Holloway (11-3-0) vs. [#29] Cole Miller (21-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2014-10-04: W vs. [#66FW] Akira Corassani (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1
2014-08-23: W vs. [#37FW] Clay Collard (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 3
2014-04-26: W vs. [#55FW] Andre Fili (14-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:39 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Cole Miller (2-1-0)
2014-01-15: W vs. [#49FW] Sam Sicilia (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:54 of round 2
2013-10-26: W vs. [#229FW] Andy Ogle (9-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-08-17: L vs. [#10BW] Manny Gamburyan (14-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 133, Cole Miller 395
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#28] Neil Magny (13-3-0) vs. [#103] Kiichi Kunimoto (18-5-2)

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (3-0-0)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#117WW] William Macario (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 3
2014-08-23: W vs. [#99WW] Alex Garcia (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-28: W vs. [#291WW] Rodrigo Goiana de Lima (8-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kiichi Kunimoto (3-0-0)
2014-09-20: W vs. [#316WW] Richard Walsh (8-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-06-14: W vs. [#93MW] Daniel Sarafian (9-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:52 of round 1
2014-01-04: W vs. [#529WW] Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. (11-3-1) via DQ (Elbows to Back of Head) in 2:57 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 112, Kiichi Kunimoto 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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All-Time Rankings: The Black Holes at #3 – Part 1: Heavyweights

Posted on February 9, 2015 by Jason

A short time ago, Sherdog put an article out debating the Top Lightweights of All-Time and today, put another article out debating the same for Welterweights.

Granted, this is an interesting debate now that we’re getting close to two decades where weight classes actually started being acknowledged, but in plenty of divisions, the top fighter is obvious.  Furthermore, in many and perhaps more cases, the top 2 is obvious even if the 1-2 order is arguable.  In my opinion, the #3 position is completely up for grabs in every division.  In a sport where rankings mean so much, it seems unusual for this rift so close to the top.  Certainly, arguments like this have to start somewhere, but #3 is where the questions start to arise.

 

Heavyweight

#1 – Fedor Emelianenko (34-4, 5*, 29)

#2 – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1, 3*, 8)

Here at #3, we’ve got several possibilities.  Certainly, Cain Velasquez (13-1, 4*, 8) is a great choice, but his constant inactivity may yield to another current top fighter, Junior dos Santos (17-3, 2*, 7).  Though Velasquez has the 2-1 lead in their series, dos Santos remains a little more active and somehow, Velasquez has fought only two different fighters in his past five fights.  This kind of repetition isn’t great for a career retrospective.

If you want to go back in time, you’ve got Josh Barnett (33-7, 1*, 0) and Randy Couture (13-7, 7*, 0) who are also reasonable choices.

Fight Matrix #3 – Cain Velasquez

[poll id=”20″]

(X-Y, A*, B)

X-Y = Division Record
A = Major Title/Tourney Wins in Division
B = Quarterly #1 Rankings in Division

 

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The Weight Missing Fiasco

Posted on February 9, 2015 by Ked Becker

Apart from the huge deal surrounding the failed drug tests, there’s another, much smaller issue in UFC 183, the weight missing by two of the fighters, and quite big names at that, Kelvin Gastelum and John Lineker.

For a long time I’ve wondered why fighters are fighting at a lower weight than the one that they walk around with, and how did it come to be.

The answer to the first question, of course, is that everybody has better chances when fighting smaller guys, and so, everybody tries to pass as small as they can themselves. The reason they can do this is because they have 24 hours before the fight starts to rehydrate and recuperate from the weakened state they are in at the time of the weigh ins.

I don’t know why fighters are weighed in more than 24 hours before the fight, though. I guess that in the beginning (of Boxing) it had something to do with the option of finding a replacement for the fighter or for canceling the show before the crowd got there.  But nowadays neither of these is the case.  Fights are still made even if one or both fighters do miss weight.

So why is it still going on? Is it a health issue? These days, fighters lose so much weight for fights that their body is very weak at the time of the weigh ins.  If they would try to fight at this weakened state it would probably prove to be very dangerous for them.  Looking at it this way, it might make sense not to let them fight right after a weigh in, when they are particularly weak.

But I don’t believe that this is right way of looking at it.  Fighters lose all this weight and fight at weight classes smaller than their regular weight because they know they have those 24 hours to recuperate. The situation now is the dangerous one, since fighters are dehydrating themselves to extreme levels, sometimes to the point where their bodies just shut down.  We see it time and time again, and there is no reason to think we’ll ever stop seeing that.  Fighters will always try to fight in as small a weight class as possible and will always continue to hurt themselves in the process of trying to make that weight, counting on the 24 hour period after the weigh in for recuperation.

If, on the other hand, weigh ins would be held minutes (yes, minutes) before a fight, so fighters would have no time to recuperate from a weight loss, fighters would know that they can’t fight at a weight class lighter than their natural weight since if they do they will be weak during the fight, which is the most important time to be as strong as possible. fighters would, then, try to keep the weight pretty even, at the weight they would fight in, throughout the entire training camp because they wouldn’t want to need to lose almost any weight right before the fight which would make them weak.

This way fighters would fight at a weight much closer to their walk-around weight and there would, practically, be no health dangers surrounding the weight cut, and, of course much less weight misses.

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (02-08-2015)

Posted on February 8, 2015 by Jason
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PEDs & MMA (and sports in general)

Posted on February 5, 2015 by Jason

I thought I’d take the latest drug test failures as an excuse for taking a foray into the subjective side of MMA mixed with some opinion and philosophy, something we don’t commonly do here.

When I think of PEDs in sports, the first thing that comes to mind (chronologically) is a group gathering I had with some friends circa-2001.  Realize, this was before “the cream” and “the clear”, before BALCO made the headlines and before Lance Armstrong taught us that cycling is a “dirty” sport.  At this point, we had just gotten past the discovery of those pills with the really long name that Mark McGwire had in his locker.  As we watched whatever sport we were watching, I turn to the room and say something to the effect of: “I bet most of these guys are juicing.”  After saying this, I almost got laughed out of the room.  OK, it wasn’t that bad, it was more like, “Yeah right, you just wish you were that big.”

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (02-01-2015)

Posted on February 1, 2015 by Jason
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Bang for Your Buck: UFC 183

Posted on January 29, 2015 by Oleg

UFC 183: The return of Anderson Silva!  Does anything else need to be said about this card?  Frankly I would buy this Pay-Per-View for the main event alone.   However I will stick to one of the ground rules I laid out when starting the ‘Bang for Your Buck‘ series: $25 is the ceiling for any single fight.  Also, 183 features a very solid under-card.  So is it worth $60?  Let’s find out:

 

Main Event: [#6 MW] Anderson Silva  vs [NR] Nick Diaz

Worth: $20

Why: Besides sticking to my ceiling of $25 per fight, I’ll also try to be objective and say that no matter how excited I am for Anderson’s return, this fight doesn’t quite measure up to Jones vs Cormier – the last and only fight so far that I valuated at the max price.  Silva is 39, has not fought in over a year, has not won in two, and is returning after a crippling injury.  These are the main reasons this fight is interesting: anything less than a spectacular finish for Silva would mean that one of the greatest fighters ever might as well call it a career.

Silva’s opponent Nick Diaz is almost a decade younger – and age is just about the only thing on his side in this bout.  He has not fought in almost two years, has not won in over three, and is a primarily a welterweight who infrequently dabbles in 155 & 185 bouts.  Stylistically, Nick’s plodding forward, volume striking style is perfect fodder fro Silva’s counter-striking.  However Silva’s age, recent injury, and recent performances are begging the question: is Anderson Silva getting too old for this shit?  If he somehow manages to lose to Nick Diaz, the answer is a resounding ‘Yes’.

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Fight Matrix Program: UFC 183 (01-31-2015)

Posted on January 29, 2015 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#6] Anderson Silva (33-6-0, -462) vs. [*] Nick Diaz (26-9-0, +355)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Middleweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (1-2-0)
2013-12-28: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#3P4P] Chris Weidman (12-0-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 1:16 of round 2
2013-07-06: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#3P4P] Chris Weidman (12-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2012-10-13: W vs. [#58LHW] Stephan Bonnar (15-9-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nick Diaz (1-2-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [*] Georges St. Pierre (25-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2012-02-04: L vs. [#7WW] Carlos Condit (29-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-10-29: W vs. [*] B.J. Penn (16-10-2) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anderson Silva 399, Nick Diaz 686
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#4] Tyron Woodley (14-3-0, -104) vs. [#12] Kelvin Gastelum (10-0-0, -120)
Tyron Woodley is the All-Time #22 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tyron Woodley (2-1-0)
2014-08-23: W vs. [#14WW] Dong Hyun Kim (19-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1
2014-06-14: L vs. [#2WW/#10P4P] Rory MacDonald (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#7WW] Carlos Condit (29-8-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (3-0-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#19WW] Jake Ellenberger (29-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2014-06-28: W vs. [#40WW] Nicholas Musoke (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#16WW] Rick Story (18-8-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tyron Woodley 161, Kelvin Gastelum 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#19] Joe Lauzon (24-9-0, +160) vs. [#21] Al Iaquinta (11-3-1, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2014-09-05: W vs. [#41LW] Michael Chiesa (11-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:14 of round 2
2013-12-14: W vs. [*] Mac Danzig (21-12-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-17: L vs. [#13LW] Michael Johnson (15-8-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Al Iaquinta (2-1-0)
2014-11-07: W vs. [#34LW] Ross Pearson (16-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2014-09-05: W vs. [#100LW] Rodrigo Damm (12-9-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:41 of round 3
2014-05-24: L vs. [#36LW] Mitch Clarke (11-2-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:57 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Lauzon 148, Al Iaquinta 85
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joe Lauzon leads 1-0
.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (01-29-2015)

Posted on January 29, 2015 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Bug fixed in Pound-for-Pound rankings (new subjective style, not Division Dominance)

Early or Late Stoppages

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Ked Becker

Sometimes fights are stopped too early and sometimes too late. In a perfect world, of course, all fights would have been stopped exactly on time.  But realistically judges usually have to decide (in a split second) between stopping the fight or letting it continue when the fighter seem to be really hurt but might still be able to continue.

The upside of stopping the fight at that point is that of the protecting the safety of the fighters, while the down side is that of stopping a potentially intriguing and important fight, robbing the fans of it’s entertainment value and maybe changing the rightful outcome of the fight, thus disrupting the whole true rankings and future fight schedule.

When should a judge, then, err on the side of caution and should he let the fight continue to a more definitive outcome?

The answer, in my opinion, primarily depends on the significance of the fight.

Yes, we all think that all fights should be judged exactly the same, like we think all fighters should be treated the same. But this is not the reality. Top fighters earn differently and get different treatment from promoters and athletic commissions, and main events get 5 rounds even when they are not title fights. The point is that top fights are much more important than all other fights. These are the fights that the fans care about the most by far, these are the fights that are most important for the sport and these are the fights that are most important for the fighters.

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (01-25-2015)

Posted on January 25, 2015 by Jason
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UFC on FOX 14 / Ratings vs. Odds

Posted on January 23, 2015 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

  1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
  2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
  3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
  4. Notable home advantage.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  In addition to those, there should also be considerations to stylistic differences and the possibility of bad scoring — both of which, will not be considered here.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

 

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite I’d bet on “Gotchas”
Beal vs. Seery Beal (-207 / Moderate) Beal (1.41x / Small) PASS #1
Bektic vs. Redmond Bektic (-707 / Very Large) Bektic (1.38x / Small) Redmond #1, #3
Erokhin vs. Pesta Erokhin (-372 / Large) Erokhin (4.18x / Massive) Erokhin
Christodoulou vs. Taisumov Taisumov (-865 / Very Large) Taisumov (2.40x / Large) PASS
Krylov vs. Nedkov Krylov (-126 / Very Small) Krylov (1.75x / Moderate) PASS #1, #2
Amirkhani vs. Ogle Ogle (-152 / Small) Ogle (1.00x / EVEN) Amirkhani
Robertson vs. Aliev Aliev (-156 / Small) Robertson (1.11x / Very Small) PASS #1
Musoke vs. Tumenov Tumenov (-134 / Very Small) Musoke (1.27x / Small) Musoke #4
Corassani vs. Sicilia Corassani (-128 / Very Small) Corassani (1.85x / Moderate) Corassani
Davis vs. Bader Davis (-253 / Moderate) Davis (1.77x / Moderate) PASS
Mousasi vs. Henderson Mousasi (-504 / Very Large) Henderson (1.80x / Moderate) Henderson #1
Gustafsson vs. Johnson Gustafsson (-284 / Moderate) Johnson (1.16x / Very Small) PASS #4

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many relevant gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

 

Favorites to consider: Corassani and Erokhin are the two favorites I’d consider backing here.  Erokhin, due to the substantial rating advantage and Corassani mainly due to the hometown advantage.

 

Underdogs to consider:

  • Redmond over Bektic – Bektic is a huge odds favorite and while Redmond is dropping a division, this seems like a reasonable chance to take.
  • Amirkhani over Ogle – The ratings are basically even and with Ogle having such a poor stretch, I’d side with the newcomer in this one who is also close to home.
  • Musoke over Tumenov – Styles aside, I see no reason to go against Musoke.  Rating advantage + Hometown advantage typically equals favorite.
  • Henderson over Mousasi – I’ve been known to side with the aging legend when I shouldn’t.  In this case, Mousasi to me, is not a -500 favorite.  He feels more like a -250 favorite to me, at best.  It’s almost as if people are getting Mousasi mixed up with Machida.

 

Johnson is a really tempting pick.  If this event were anywhere else, I would’ve picked him in a second.

Bang for Your Buck: UFC on FOX 14

Posted on January 22, 2015 by Oleg

Good news, fight fans!  This weekend’s UFC on FOX 14, live from Stockholm Sweden, will be broadcast on the Fox network (as if that wasn’t clear from the title…).  That means this event is free – free as in free beer, no PPV cost, no need to estimate the cable prices or Fight Pass subscription rates.  Any US fan with a TV can watch the main card for absolutely no charge.  What’s even better is that UFC tends to stack the Fox cards, so that they are on par with most numbered PPV events (and better than some).   There are even a couple of interesting fights on the prelims, but more on that later.  For now, lets dive right in and try to figure out how much this card would be worth if it were on PPV instead of Fox.

 

Main Event:  [#3 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs  [#6 LHW] Alexander Gustafsson 

Worth: $20

Why: Who would have ever thought that in 2015,  Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson – the guy who lost to Rich Clementi and Josh Koscheck as a welterweight, and consistently struggled to make weight at 170 and 185 lbs alike – would be fighting in a top contender bout for a crack at Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title?  Of course he would have to get past Alexander Gustafsson first – a tall task against Jones’ toughest opponent to date.  This is an awesome fight, the only thing it’s missing is a title on the line, and that will be up next for the winner.

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