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Fight Matrix

The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#15 – #11: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2

If you missed the previous parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#10 – #6

#10 – Mark Kerr (Rep Avg: #103.7 | Fight Matrix: #169)

Kerr, undoubtedly a credible heavyweight for a short period, simply doesn’t have the substance to justify a ranking at the threshold of the Top 100.

 

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The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2

Posted on September 10, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1

If you missed the first part, you can visit it w/ the link above.  It has all of the details about how this list came to be.

 

#15 – #11

#15 – Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Rep Avg: #80.0 | Fight Matrix: #117)

Not a huge leap from #117 to #80.  To be at the 14 spot in this list and to only see this kind of gap, either speaks volumes about how representative our all-time rankings are, or vice versa.  The area around #100 is REALLY crowded with “almost greats”.

 

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The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1

Posted on September 9, 2015 by Jason

For those of you who do not know, in addition to our Current MMA Rankings, we also feature an All-Time MMA Rankings that is updated every month (usually on the 2nd).

In a previous post, I took a look at the most underrated fighters of all-time.  At the time, I said I wouldn’t look at the most underrated — but what the hell?  This list required some additional thought and rules to make sure fighters listed are notable, but here it is…

 

Not surprisingly, it is still tough to find (seemingly) reputable lists:

Crowd-sourcing Representative: Tapology Top 150 (2015-09-09)

“Peak” Mathematical Representative: MMA-ELO Top 100 (2015-09-09)

“Cumulative” Mathematical Representative: Sports-Ratings Top 250 (2015-01-03)

 

I would have loved to have added an “Expert” representative, but I could not find one readily available.

 

When compared to the last series, all of the lists above have since been updated — although the “Sports Ratings” list is still out of date.  Furthermore, I went deeper on the Top X for two of the three sites and the All-Time Rankings here has seen (at least) two relatively major updates in order to increase the precision of some calculations.

 

Methodology & Notes

  • I am taking the average of a fighter’s ranks in the above three lists.  If a fighter is not in one of the lists, that rank is the list maximum + 1.
  • I am then subtracting the above average from the Fight Matrix ranking as of the last run.  A negative result = overrated.
  • Finally, I am valuing “higher” ranks more than “lower” ranks.  Example:  A fighter with a representative average of #15 that we rank at #40, is a slightly more overrated fighter than one with a representative average of #90 that we rank at #230.  The break-even point is close to this though.
  • I removed women from the lists — men and women don’t belong in the same list.
  • Sports-Ratings has a fighter named Jesper Hallberg at #217.  Sherdog has him as having zero professional fights, so he is removed from contention.
  • Fighters must be in the Top 250 at Fight Matrix and be in at least two representative lists to be considered.

Value Formula (How they are ranked): (502 / SumOf3RepRanks) * DiffOf3RepRanksAvgFromFM
502 = Max Sum of 3 Rep Positions seen in all fighters considered

 

An honorable mention…. well two.

Due to the minimum qualifications of the list, Rickson Gracie was left off.  I felt it necessary to list him, as he easily would’ve made the top spot.  Ironically, #2 would’ve been Renzo Gracie.  Says a lot for name power, doesn’t it?

 

#26 – #15

#26 – Norifumi Yamamoto (Rep Avg: #118.7 | Fight Matrix: #152)

I had every intention of starting out the list with #25, but with Yamamoto at #26, I had to include him.  I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard gripes about him not being listed in one of our All-Time Top 25s.  The answer is simple; the guy never accumulated much worth at a single division.  Instead he bounced between 3 of them and didn’t do enough in any one.

 

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All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (09-02-2015)

Posted on September 2, 2015 by Jason

All-Time Rankings Updated (06-15-2015)

Posted on June 15, 2015 by Jason

Conor McGregor: Just how overrated is he?

Posted on May 21, 2015 by Jason

I realize the UFC has to hype fights, but from a Fight Matrix rankings perspective, Conor McGregor may be one of the most overhyped fighters in MMA history.

He is basically even money with Jose Aldo for their fight.

From an All-Time perspective, McGregor ranks as the #49 Featherweight in history, sandwiched between Josh Grispi and Robbie Peralta.  If you think this is harsh, please consider that approximately half of McGregor’s fights have taken place at Lightweight.

Despite having beaten the currently ranked #5 Featherweight, McGregor finds himself at #6 — you can argue that we should be performing adjustments based on events since two fighters matched up, but we don’t.  Even if we did, he would probably find himself no higher than #5.

Recently, he got his poster hung from the ceiling at the TUF gym.  While some may consider this a mecca of sorts for the UFC, it is certainly one or both of two things; foreshadowing, absurd.

Your thoughts?

All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (04-02-2015)

Posted on April 2, 2015 by Jason

All-Time Rankings: The Black Holes at #3 – Part 2: Middleweights

Posted on February 16, 2015 by Jason

Middleweight

1 – Anderson Silva (23-5-0, 11*, 26)

2 – Chris Weidman (12-0-0, 3*, 6)

 

I know what you’re thinking… it is not a sure thing and perhaps way too premature to put Weidman at #2.  Our All-Time Rankings suggest otherwise and even if you disagree, Weidman is the only fighter in the vicinity with a claim that is on the ascent.

Our #3 and #4 are tied.  Nate Marquardt (25-8-2, 0*, 3) saw early and lengthy success, while Rich Franklin (6-3-0, 3*, 4) saw larger success later but spent much, much less time there.  Dan Henderson (7-5-0, 1*, 2) is another popular choice, but he’s on a similar wavelength as Franklin.  Some great performances, but not a lengthy tenure.  Like Franklin, Henderson couldn’t quite decide on a division.

Fight Matrix #3 (tie) – Nate Marquardt, Rich Franklin

[poll id=”21″]

Record/Status Legend

(W-L, A*, B)

W-L = Division Record
A = Major Title/Tourney Wins in Division
B = Quarterly #1 Rankings in Division

 

 

All-Time Rankings: The Black Holes at #3 – Part 1: Heavyweights

Posted on February 9, 2015 by Jason

A short time ago, Sherdog put an article out debating the Top Lightweights of All-Time and today, put another article out debating the same for Welterweights.

Granted, this is an interesting debate now that we’re getting close to two decades where weight classes actually started being acknowledged, but in plenty of divisions, the top fighter is obvious.  Furthermore, in many and perhaps more cases, the top 2 is obvious even if the 1-2 order is arguable.  In my opinion, the #3 position is completely up for grabs in every division.  In a sport where rankings mean so much, it seems unusual for this rift so close to the top.  Certainly, arguments like this have to start somewhere, but #3 is where the questions start to arise.

 

Heavyweight

#1 – Fedor Emelianenko (34-4, 5*, 29)

#2 – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1, 3*, 8)

Here at #3, we’ve got several possibilities.  Certainly, Cain Velasquez (13-1, 4*, 8) is a great choice, but his constant inactivity may yield to another current top fighter, Junior dos Santos (17-3, 2*, 7).  Though Velasquez has the 2-1 lead in their series, dos Santos remains a little more active and somehow, Velasquez has fought only two different fighters in his past five fights.  This kind of repetition isn’t great for a career retrospective.

If you want to go back in time, you’ve got Josh Barnett (33-7, 1*, 0) and Randy Couture (13-7, 7*, 0) who are also reasonable choices.

Fight Matrix #3 – Cain Velasquez

[poll id=”20″]

(X-Y, A*, B)

X-Y = Division Record
A = Major Title/Tourney Wins in Division
B = Quarterly #1 Rankings in Division

 

The Best Lightweights in MMA History: All-Time Rankings (Updated)

Posted on January 12, 2015 by Jason

In response to this article posted at Sherdog today, I thought I’d show All-Time MMA Rankings for the Lightweight division in detail and how it has trended in the past 3 years (using current version):

3 Years Ago Today Diff
BJ Penn 2790 2944 5.5%
Frankie Edgar 2300 2845 23.7%
Takanori Gomi 3249 2714 -16.5%
Ben Henderson 263 2709 930.0%
Gilbert Melendez 1470 2141 45.6%
Shinya Aoki 2061 2136 3.6%
Anthony Pettis 48 1795 3639.6%
Joachim Hansen 1509 1521 0.8%
Vitor Ribeiro 1463 1460 -0.2%
Eddie Alvarez 860 1340 55.8%

Everyone that stayed steady or increased slightly only saw fluctuations based on changes in ratings of key opposition or additional points earned between then and the end of their Lightweight runs.

Gomi got hit hard, because the system thought he was basically done three years ago.  On today’s run, it re-considered and suggested he was still at or near his prime when it saw him under-perform once hitting the UFC; essentially proving that he wasn’t all he was cracked up to be at one time.  Note: I try to disqualify post-prime failures, but it is not completely preventable.

In the past month, we’ve worked on some tweaks for the All-Time Rankings.  As fighter careers last longer (time-wise) we’ve seen the need to put more weight on quality and less weight on quantity.  Honestly, this is pretty subjective, but there’s no great way to do All-Time Rankings unless you look at sums or peaks and neither works great on its own.  Nevertheless, the same version was used in both sets provided above.

EDIT: Re-posted and re-explained.  Today values were incorrect.

The Rise and Fall of Tim Sylvia

Posted on January 3, 2015 by Jason

With the news that Tim Sylvia was unable to fight this weekend, because he failed his medicals — weighing in at 371 pounds probably didn’t help matters — I decided to use our Generated Historical Rankings to show the rise and fall of Tim Sylvia using his rank in the Heavyweight division through time.

Tim Sylvia's Historical Ranks

The format of the horizontal series labels is Year – Fights – Age, as of the first and midpoint of the year (no contests excluded).  The major gridlines represent the first and midpoints of the year.

The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 6 (Final)

Posted on December 23, 2014 by Jason

The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1 | #25 – #15
The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2 | #14 – #10
The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3 | #9 – #5
The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 4 | #4 – #3
The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 5 | #2

If you missed the first parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#1…

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The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 5

Posted on December 22, 2014 by Jason

#25 – #15: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#14 – #10: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2
#9 – #5: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3
#4 – #3: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 4

If you missed the first parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#2…

Keep Reading

The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 4

Posted on December 21, 2014 by Jason

#25 – #15: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#14 – #10: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2
#9 – #5: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3

If you missed the first parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

 

#4 – Chad Mendes (Rep Avg: #121.3 | Fight Matrix: #48)

Mendes is taking the Jon Fitch road, but at 145.  Practically glued to the Top 5, tons of top-quality fights and wins while fighting for the UFC, but just can’t get over the hump to win the gold.  Having him outside of the Top 100 is absolutely ridiculous.

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The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3

Posted on December 20, 2014 by Jason

#25 – #15: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#14 – #10: The Most Underrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2

If you missed the first parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

 

#9 – #5

 

#9 – Mamoru Yamaguchi (Rep Avg: #120 | Fight Matrix: #70)

Small man bias in full effect here — Yamaguchi is a part of the three-headed Japanese dragon that has ruled the All-Time MMA Rankings at Flyweight, here on Fight Matrix.  For us, DJ is set to high jump over this tandem in the near future, but he apparently already had sometime ago for mostly everyone else.  The “pick and choose” process is very strange when it comes to acknowledging MMA success in the early years.

 

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