Fightmatrix Program – Strikeforce: Tate vs. Rousey (2012-03-03)
Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#2DD] Miesha Tate (12-2-0) vs. [#3FW] Ronda Rousey (4-0-0)
Miesha Tate is the All-Time #14 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Miesha Tate (3-0-0)
2011-07-30: W vs. [#3BW/#9DD] Marloes Coenen (19-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4
2010-08-13: W vs. [#8BW] Hitomi Akano (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-08-13: W vs. [#20BW] Maiju Kujala (6-3-0) via UD (20-18, 20-18, 20-18)
Last 3 Fights: Ronda Rousey (3-0-0)
2011-11-18: W vs. [#12FW] Julia Budd (2-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:39 of round 1
2011-08-12: W vs. [#25FW] Sarah DAlelio (4-2-0) via Technical Submission (Armbar) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-06-17: W vs. [NA] Charmaine Tweet (0-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:49 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miesha Tate 217, Ronda Rousey 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#15] Ronaldo Souza (14-3-0) vs. [#77] Bristol Marunde (15-6-0)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (2-1-0)
2011-09-10: L vs. [#5MW] Luke Rockhold (9-1-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-01-29: W vs. [#19MW] Robbie Lawler (19-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2010-08-21: W vs. [#10MW] Tim Kennedy (14-3-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Bristol Marunde (3-0-0)
2011-11-04: W vs. [#38MW] Jay Silva (8-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-08-20: W vs. [#242MW] Victor Moreno (30-17-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:07 of round 1
2011-05-21: W vs. [#263LHW] Chuck Grigsby (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 175, Bristol Marunde 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#22] Paul Daley (29-11-2) vs. [#76MW] Kazuo Misaki (24-11-2)
Last 3 Fights: Paul Daley (2-1-0)
2011-10-21: W vs. [#188WW] Luigi Fioravanti (22-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-09-10: W vs. [#98WW] Jordan Radev (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2011-07-30: L vs. [#15WW] Tyron Woodley (10-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Kazuo Misaki (2-1-0)
2011-04-22: W vs. [#769MW] Akira Shoji (14-17-5) via TKO (Punches) in 1:13 of round 2
2010-12-30: W vs. [#729MW] Mike Seal (13-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:15 of round 1
2010-08-22: L vs. [#26MW] Jorge Santiago (23-10-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 4:31 of round 5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Daley 134, Kazuo Misaki 316
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Paul Daley leads 1-0
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, March 14th 2026: Pancrase 361 | |||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/09/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#32 SW] Tateo Iino Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 4/27/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#51 SW] Takafumi Ato Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Friday, March 6th 2026: RIZIN 52 | |||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/02/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#1 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L L W L | Last Fight Date: 11/02/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [NR] Bo Mi Lee Last 5: L W W W W | ||
| Saturday, March 7th 2026: DEEP Osaka Impact 2026 1st Round | |||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/15/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#5 W105] Saori Oshima Last 5: W W W W L | Last Fight Date: 5/25/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#36 W105] Honoka Shigeta Last 5: L L L W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#260 WW] | Rustambek Nurzhanov |   | [#18 W135] | Regina Tarin |
| [#165 BW] | Cristian Quinonez |   | [#3 LW] | Charles Oliveira |
| [#1 LW] | Ilia Topuria |   | [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev |
| [#6 FLW] | Loneer Kavanagh |   | [#844 LW] | Daniel Holt |
| [#2 LW] | Arman Tsarukyan |   | [#1 MW] | Khamzat Chimaev |

Fightmatrix Program – UFC on FX: Alves vs. Kampmann (2012-03-03)
Welterweight (170)
[#11] Martin Kampmann (18-5-0) vs. [#20] Thiago Alves (19-8-0)
Thiago Alves is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Martin Kampmann (1-2-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#24WW] Rick Story (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2011-03-03: L vs. [#10WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-10-23: L vs. [#5WW] Jake Shields (27-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Thiago Alves (2-1-0)
2011-11-05: W vs. [#126WW] Papy Abedi (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:32 of round 1
2011-05-28: L vs. [#24WW] Rick Story (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-12-11: W vs. [#67WW] John Howard (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Martin Kampmann 105, Thiago Alves 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Martin Kampmann leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#3BW] Joseph Benavidez (15-2-0) vs. [#3] Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-4-6)
Yasuhiro Urushitani is the All-Time #2 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Joseph Benavidez (3-0-0)
2011-08-14: W vs. [#25BW] Eddie Wineland (18-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-03-19: W vs. [#26BW] Ian Loveland (14-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-11-11: W vs. [*] Wagnney Fabiano (14-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:45 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Yasuhiro Urushitani (3-0-0)
2011-07-18: W vs. [#25FLY] Yuki Shojo (11-6-2) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:24 of round 2
2010-11-19: W vs. [*] Takuya Mori (7-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 1
2010-05-30: W vs. [#110FLY] Ryuichi Miki (10-6-3) via UD (30-28, 30-28, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joseph Benavidez 202, Yasuhiro Urushitani 229
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lineal Flyweight Championship (125)
[#8BW] Demetrious Johnson (14-2-0) vs. [#1] Ian McCall (11-2-0)
Ian McCall is the All-Time #20 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (2-1-0)
2011-10-01: L vs. [#1BW/#7DD] Dominick Cruz (19-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2011-05-28: W vs. [#13BW] Miguel Torres (40-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-02-05: W vs. [#142BW] Norifumi Yamamoto (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ian McCall (3-0-0)
2011-08-05: W vs. [#15FLY] Darrell Montague (9-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:15 of round 3
2011-05-06: W vs. [#14FLY] Dustin Ortiz (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-02-18: W vs. [#2FLY] Jussier da Silva (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 154, Ian McCall 211
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Prepare for Flyweight Craziness
Forever the Japanese recluse division of men’s MMA, the UFC has decided to open the Flyweight division up to the world. This will likely result in many top Bantamweights moving down into the Flyweight division and the exodus begins this Friday.

The above graphical representation portrays the issue that will soon be confronting the FightMatrix Flyweight rankings. As Bantamweight is a much, much more established division, contending Bantamweights are already so much more proven than even the very top Flyweights that they will hold a distinct rating advantage.
Barring any weight cut issues and/or anomalous performances, based on the point level differences, Demetrious Johnson SHOULD easily beat Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez SHOULD trounce Yasuhiro Urushitani. In fact, Benavidez holds such an incredibly high Bantamweight rating, if he should win this Friday, he will likely have more than triple the rating points of any other Flyweight — outside of Johnson, who himself will be an amazing strongly #2 Flyweight, should he win this Friday.
As you may, or may not know, our ratings are division-adjusted, not division-specific. In this case, that’s not really up for debate, as Johnson and Benavidez will be taking on the #1 and #3 Flyweights, respectively. Should they win, they will deserve to be ranked #1 and #2, but with an incredible amount of rating points in comparison to the rest of the division.


Total Pro Bouts: Boxing vs. MMA — Has MMA Peaked Globally?

Boxing totals from BoxRec.
The totals are likely a little light due to missing bouts, but the trend is what is of importance. Has MMA peaked? Is boxing REALLY dying?
Quantity only means so much, but it is extremely important in the development of new talent.
FightMatrix Program: UFC 144 (02-25-2012)
Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#6DD] Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. [#3] Ben Henderson (15-2-0)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #3 ranked Lightweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #25 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (2-0-1)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#4LW] Gray Maynard (10-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 4
2011-01-01: D vs. [#4LW] Gray Maynard (10-1-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2010-08-28: W vs. [#8WW] BJ Penn (16-8-2) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2011-11-12: W vs. [#9LW] Clay Guida (29-12-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-14: W vs. [#8LW] Jim Miller (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2011-04-30: W vs. [#26LW] Mark Bocek (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 141, Ben Henderson 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Quinton Jackson (32-9-0) vs. [#15] Ryan Bader (13-2-0)
Quinton Jackson is the All-Time #3 ranked Light Heavyweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Quinton Jackson (2-1-0)
2011-09-24: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD] Jon Jones (15-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4
2011-05-28: W vs. [#20LHW] Matt Hamill (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-11-20: W vs. [#6LHW] Lyoto Machida (17-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (1-2-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#47LHW] Jason Brilz (18-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:17 of round 1
2011-07-02: L vs. [#17LHW] Tito Ortiz (17-10-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:56 of round 1
2011-02-05: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD] Jon Jones (15-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:20 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Quinton Jackson 155, Ryan Bader 99
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) vs. [#35] Mark Hunt (7-7-0)
Last 3 Fights: Cheick Kongo (2-0-1)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#26HW+] Matt Mitrione (5-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#48HW+] Pat Barry (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:39 of round 1
2010-10-16: D vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (12-0-1) via Draw (Unanimous) in 5:00 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (2-1-0)
2011-09-24: W vs. [#52HW+] Ben Rothwell (31-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2011-02-27: W vs. [#103HW+] Chris Tuchscherer (19-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:41 of round 2
2010-09-25: L vs. [#123HW+] Sean McCorkle (15-2-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 1:03 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cheick Kongo 120, Mark Hunt 155
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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FightMatrix Program: DEEP 57 Impact (02-18-2012)
Lightweight (154)
[#28] Mizuto Hirota (13-4-1) vs. [#156] Seichi Ikemoto (20-17-5)
Last 3 Fights: Mizuto Hirota (2-1-0)
2011-08-26: W vs. [#58LW] Katsunori Kikuno (16-4-2) via UD ()
2009-12-31: L vs. [#7LW] Shinya Aoki (30-5-0) via Technical Submission (Hammerlock) in 1:17 of round 1
2009-08-02: W vs. [#44LW] Satoru Kitaoka (29-11-9) via TKO (Knees) in 2:50 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Seichi Ikemoto (2-1-0)
2011-09-04: W vs. [#205LW] Hiroki Aoki (11-6-1) via UD ()
2010-06-06: W vs. [#629LW] Naoki Matsushita (12-15-11) via MD ()
2010-01-24: L vs. [#84WW] Yuya Shirai (22-10-0) via UD ()
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mizuto Hirota 176, Seichi Ikemoto 167
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#81] Levan Razmadze (4-0-0) vs. [#133] Ryuta Noji (15-6-0)
Last 3 Fights: Levan Razmadze (3-0-0)
2011-08-26: W vs. [#161HW+] Kazuhisa Tazawa (7-2-1) via Submission (Keylock) in 1:29 of round 1
2011-06-24: W vs. [#558HW+] Seigo Mizuguchi (9-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 1
2011-04-24: W vs. [NA] Ryota Ryota (0-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:56 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Ryuta Noji (3-0-0)
2011-10-30: W vs. [#510MW] Carlos Toyota (3-6-1) via UD ()
2011-08-26: W vs. [#643LHW] Shuji Morikawa (3-6-2) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 2:56 of round 1
2011-03-06: W vs. [#622HW+] Kyu Suk Song (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Levan Razmadze 176, Ryuta Noji 111
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (154)
[#33FW] Kazunori Yokota (14-5-3) vs. [#252FW] Hideki Kadowaki (14-11-3)
Last 3 Fights: Kazunori Yokota (2-1-0)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#397FW] Katsuya Toida (12-11-3) via TKO (Soccer Kicks and Punches) in 0:25 of round 2
2011-06-24: W vs. [#125FW] Shoji Maruyama (10-7-1) via UD ()
2010-12-30: L vs. [#15LW] Jadamba Narantungalag (7-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:03 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Hideki Kadowaki (1-1-1)
2011-04-10: D vs. [#347FW] Kosuke Kindaichi (5-2-2) via Draw in 5:00 of round 2
2010-12-18: W vs. [#425FW] Yusuke Yachi (5-3-0) via UD ()
2010-06-11: L vs. [#38BW] Gustavo Falciroli (12-3-2) via KO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kazunori Yokota 112, Hideki Kadowaki 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current Top 5 Prospects by Division (Issue #3)
BloodyElbow analyzes and follows prospects around the sport. They don’t use criteria quite as strict as ours, but it is interesting to see which fighters crossover on both lists. This is issue #3 and will show changes from the second issue of our rankings (Summer 2011).
The listed prospects fulfilled the following criteria:
- Have not fought in any of the “Big 15” organizations. Please see the FAQ for more info.
- Have no more than one defeat.
- Have five wins or more.
- Have fought in the last 450 days.
Sorted by current rating [2011+2012 BloodyElbow ranking in brackets]
Heavyweight+
- (NEW) Magomed Malikov (6-1-0) [BE 2012 #1 HW]
- (=) Guram Gughenishvili (11-0-0) [BE 2011 #1 HW]
- (=) Chris Barnett (7-1-0)
- (NEW) Ben Reiter (5-0-0)
- (NEW) Beau Tribolet (7-1-0)
Dropped out: (#1) Shamil Abdurahimov [2nd Loss], (#4) Stipe Miocic [Fought in “Big 15”], (#5) Edinaldo Oliveira [Fought in “Big 15”]
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel TV (02-15-2012)
Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (25-5-0) vs. [#10] Diego Sanchez (23-4-0)
Diego Sanchez is the All-Time #7 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (3-0-0)
2011-09-17: W vs. [#5WW] Jake Shields (26-6-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
2011-04-30: W vs. [#102WW] Sean Pierson (11-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:42 of round 1
2011-02-05: W vs. [#72WW] Carlos Eduardo Rocha (9-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
Last 3 Fights: Diego Sanchez (2-1-0)
2011-03-03: W vs. [#11WW] Martin Kampmann (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-10-23: W vs. [#30WW] Paulo Thiago (14-3-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-05-29: L vs. [#40WW] John Hathaway (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 151, Diego Sanchez 349
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#24] Dave Herman (22-2-0) vs. [#30] Stefan Struve (22-5-0)
Last 3 Fights: Dave Herman (3-0-0)
2011-06-11: W vs. [#391HW+] John Olav Einemo (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 2
2010-12-30: W vs. [#94HW+] Yoshihiro Nakao (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-28)
2010-09-30: W vs. [#60HW+] Michal Kita (11-6-0) via Submission (Omoplata) in 3:16 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (2-1-0)
2011-10-01: W vs. [#48HW+] Pat Barry (7-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
2011-05-28: L vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (12-0-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:11 of round 1
2010-12-11: W vs. [#124HW+] Sean McCorkle (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:55 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dave Herman 249, Stefan Struve 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#36] Aaron Simpson (11-2-0) vs. [#42LHW] Ronny Markes (12-1-0)
Last 3 Fights: Aaron Simpson (3-0-0)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#175MW] Eric Schafer (12-7-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#220MW] Brad Tavares (7-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-03-26: W vs. [#59MW] Mario Miranda (13-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Ronny Markes (3-0-0)
2011-08-14: W vs. [#121LHW] Karlos Vemola (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-04-29: W vs. [#63LHW] Paulo Filho (22-4-2) via UD ()
2011-04-01: W vs. [#671LHW] Diogo Osama (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aaron Simpson 130, Ronny Markes 185
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Gambling Analysis: UFC on Fuel TV 1
If you’re keeping count at home, I’m on a roll with our “gambling analysis” posts, picking 6-for-6 winners (1 other ending in a ‘no contest’) with near perfection on the outcome type and round.
In my honest opinion, the upcoming UFC: Fuel TV 1 card doesn’t provide many solid betting options and I feel like I’m forcing a pick this week. Overall, the matches are well constructed and this will usually lead to some unexpected outcomes.
Having said that, betting on MMA at TopBet can currently yield you odds of -140 with a pick of Dave Herman over Stefan Struve at the upcoming Fuel TV event. Though they are very closely ranked here at FightMatrix (Herman #24 / Struve #28), I think Struve is too big of a target and has too weak of a chin to stay standing. 15 of Herman’s 22 wins have come by (T)KO, and he should improve this rate with a late first round stoppage of Struve.
All-Time MMA Rankings Updated: 2/3/2012
Notable Info
- With Jose Aldo’s latest victory, he takes a big leap from #21 to #16 in the Absolute rankings. He is also much closer to taking the #1 spot at Featherweight.
- Chael Sonnen’s latest victory inches him past Paulo Filho to enter the Top 5 All-Time Middleweight list.
- Ben Henderson finally breaks into the Top 25 at Lightweight, filling the last position on the list.
- Megumi Fujii moves past Tara LaRosa and Yuka Tsuji, to claim the #1 Women’s position. Fujii’s continued elite position coupled with LaRosa’s lack of tough opposition caused this shift, though the three are still very close.
