Notable Info
- Lightweight, Welterweight, Middleweight expanded to Top 300.
- Ratings update to give special consideration to wildly varied split and majority decisions.
- Mild blocking routine implemented – see details in previous post.
Notable Info
Every year on the Saturday prior to Superbowl, UFC traditionally puts on one of the bigger cards of the year. Last year’s UFC 109 was a notable exception to the usually stacked line-up of the pre-Superbowl event. This year, Zuffa did not disappoint with UFC 126: headlined by a long-awaited middleweight title bout between champion Anderson Silva and challenger Vitor Belfort, and bolstered by a couple of high-profile light heavyweight bouts, one featuring two former champions and the other two top prospects.
It started out slow, as many of Anderson’s fights tend to, and ended with a flash of brutality in the first round as Silva knocked Vitor Belfort down with a front kick to the face and finished him with two quick punches on the ground. Silva retains his UFC title, and his #1 spot on both the middleweight ranking and the Division Dominance list. If the UFC welterweight champion and the #2 on our Division Dominance list George St. Pierre is successful in the upcoming defense against Jake Shields, a super-fight between Silva and St. Pierre seems inevitable. If GSP falters, Anderson’s next title defense will likely come against Yushin Okami – unless Silva decided to move up to 205 lbs.
Previously unranked for inactivity, Vitor Belfort returns to the middleweight ranking at #8. A rematch with Wanderlei Silva at the upcoming UFC in Brazil would be a great scrap.
Rising head and shoulders ahead of competition, Anderson Silva holds the records for most consecutive wins in the UFC at 13, and most consecutive title defenses (8). He is also only 1 title win away from also holding the record for most wins in title bouts (currently held by Randy Couture at 10).
I expected the two featured light-heavyweight bouts to be fairly competitive, but this turned out not to be the case. Jon ‘Bones’ Jones took down Ryan Bader at will, finishing him with a modified guillotine choke in the second round. After the fight it was announced that the top contender and Jones’ training partner Rashad Evans suffered a knee injury, and Jones was offered to take Rashad’s spot in challenging Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua for the UFC title. Jones of course accepted, and after moving up 10 spots to #5 on the rankings he will now have the chance to become #1. Bader falls to #12; Stephan Bonnar has been rumored as his next opponent.
Though the Rich Franklin – Forrest Griffin bout was not as lopsided, Griffin used his noticeable size advantage to out-work Franklin in every aspect of the game, winning a unanimous decision. Franklin was able to steal a round on all three scorecards due to Griffin slowing down as the fight went on – likely a side effect of his long layoff from the Octagon. Griffin regains the three ranking spots he lost due to inactivity, and is now back at #6 LHW. He should next face the winner of the upcoming bout between Randy Couture and Lyoto Machida. Rich Franklin, who falls to #13, should take on the Couture-Machida loser.
Meanwhile, rumors are swirling about Thiago Silva having to withdraw from his planned bout with Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson, and Rashad Evans taking Thiago’s place. Nothing has been made official yet in this regard. However all the fluctuations in the division forced Evans to drop a spot to #9 on the Division Dominance list, trading places with Jake Shields.
Further down the rankings, Kyle Kingsbury rose 26 spots to enter the light-heavyweight Top 50 at #43 after making quick work of Ricardo Romero. Kyle improves to 1-3 in the UFC and is on a three-win streak, while Romero falls to #84 with the first-round TKO loss.
Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2 | |||
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Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Denis Goltsov Last 5: NC L W W W | Last Fight Date: 11/29/2024 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#21 MW] Impa Kasanganay Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2 | |||
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Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#14 LW] Paul Hughes Last 5: W W NC W W | Last Fight Date: 5/10/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#51 LW] Bruno Miranda Last 5: W W W L W | ||
Saturday, November 8th 2025: Dynamite MMA 4 - Nov. 8 | |||
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Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC] Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira Last 5: W L L W L | Last Fight Date: 4/04/2025 [Invicta FC] Last Opponent: [#12 W105] Taynara Silva Last 5: W W L L L |
[#3 FW] | ![]() |   | [#19 FW] | ![]() |
[#2 LW] | ![]() |   | [#1 LW] | ![]() |
[NR] | ![]() |   | [#90 WW] | ![]() |
[NR] | ![]() |   | [#1 MW] | ![]() |
[#4 LW] | ![]() |   | [#18 LW] | ![]() |
Heavyweight
[#4] Fedor Emelianenko vs. [#11] Antonio Silva
Heavyweight
[#15] Andrei Arlovski vs. [#25] Sergei Kharitonov
Heavyweight
[#62] Shane del Rosario vs. [#72] Lavar Johnson
Heavyweight
[#88] Chad Griggs vs. [#140 LHW] Gian Villante
Heavyweight
[#126] Valentijn Overeem vs. [*] Ray Sefo
Lightweight
[#239] John Cholish vs. [*] Marc Stevens
Welterweight
[#474 LW] John Salgado vs. [*] Igor Gracie
Welterweight
[#385] Don Carlo-Clauss vs. [#478] Sam Oropeza
Featherweight
[#144] Josh LaBerge vs. [#267] Anthony Leone
Featherweight
[#229] Jason McLean vs. [#714 LW] Kevin Roddy
In (most probably) our next release, we will be introducing a mild “blocking” routine into the ratings.
No software-based rating system is perfect and although we’ve stymied most of the undesirable qualities of an ELO-system, some still remain. As such, we will be implementing a blocking routine which will prevent a fighter from increasing his or her rating over a fighter who has beaten them in the past 450 days, unless one of the following conditions are met, in a future match within the 450 day window:
Our intent is to resolve the issue of a losing fighter creeping above the winner with a multitude of mediocre, yet point-scoring wins. This is a very mild solution, and as a result, our initial test only produced 65 blocks — less than half of which will affect ranked fighters.
Although there are 5 conditions above, this still pales in comparison to the complexities of our rating system as a whole. Nevertheless, we feel this is more than a fair start for our first attempt at releasing this into the wild.
In addition, our next update will introduce a new slant on scoring split and majority decisions. If one judge’s score wildly varies from the others, it will have less, or more effect on the ratings, depending on the direction in which that one judge scored. This will have very little overall effect on the ratings.
As for the expansion..
In the last few years, Lightweight, Welterweight, and Middleweight have outpaced their larger predecessors in producing more quality fighters. As such, we will be progressively expanding these rankings in the coming weeks/months. We will be increasing these three divisions to a Top 300 list on the next update.
A historical approximation of Fedor’s divisional dominance rating since mid-2003.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Anderson Silva would most certainly pair up the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, barring another big win by Cain Velasquez, or a surprise by Jake Shields.
Since our site only started about 3 years ago, I created a procedure which acts as a good approximation of our Top 10 division dominance list, back to the beginning of MMA history.
Only once before would our #1 have faced our #2, and that match ended by no contest (Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira II). Let’s not hope for a repeat! For the record, Wanderlei Silva inched ahead of these two, and took #1 on the list prior to their 3rd matchup, only to be beaten shortly after by Mark Hunt.
Furthermore, its also important (and amazing) to mention that Georges St. Pierre has never fought above the Welterweight limit, not even pre-UFC, which makes the proposed battle even more tremendous.
Over the last several years, with seemingly increasing frequency, Zuffa has made an increased effort to invite Brazilian prospects straight from their homeland (or elsewhere) into the UFC (or previously, the WEC).
Our counts show 31 Brazilians who had fought previously, but never in the USA, then had their first match with either the UFC or WEC, since late 2004.
Prior to Zuffa: 361-47-4 (.876 Win %)
First Match in Zuffa: 15-16 (.484 Win %)
Future Matches in Zuffa: 54-36 (.600 Win %)
These statistics suggest that the Brazilians were “thrown to the wolves” and/or got a big shock when facing top-notch talent. However, either by more friendly matchmaking, or simply by adjustment, they did fairly well afterwards.
UFC/FightMatrix Middleweight Championship
[#1 MW] Anderson Silva vs. [*] Vitor Belfort
Notes: Silva is also #1 Division Dominance and the #1 All-Time Middleweight. Belfort is not ranked due to inactivity, but would likely be the #3 Middleweight if he stayed active.
Light Heavyweight
[#9] Forrest Griffin vs. [#10] Rich Franklin
Notes: A virtual tie, as Griffin’s points have slipped since the last update due to inactivity. Griffin is the #13 All-Time Light Heavyweight, Franklin is #21 (and #3 Middleweight).
Welterweight
[#16] Jake Ellenberger vs. [#89] Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Notes: A former rookie of the year winner, Ellenberger may have a tougher challenge on his hands than the above ranking suggests, as recorded Brazilian fight history is very weak.
Light Heavyweight
[#5] Ryan Bader vs. [#15] Jon Jones
Notes: Another match-up that is likely closer than the rankings suggest, thanks to Jones’ DQ loss to Mark Hamill. He will try to completely erase the software’s effects caused by that loss. The winner should be looking at the Top 4 for their next opponent.
We’ve recently published some statistics for UFC fight outcomes through the history of the organization. Here are similar stats for two MMA promotions that were ‘ultimately’ merged with the UFC.
Year | T/KO | Sub | Dec | U Dec | S Dec | Draw | NC | DQ | Finish % |
1997 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% |
1998 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 85% |
1999 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 55.6% |
2000 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 64.2% |
2001 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 73.5% |
2002 | 27 | 25 | 30 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 63.4% |
2003 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% |
2004 | 33 | 29 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 69.2% |
2005 | 39 | 24 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64.3% |
2006 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 67.3% |
2007 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94.1% |
Year | T/KO | Sub | Dec | U Dec | M Dec | S Dec | Draw | NC | DQ | Finish % |
2001 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95% |
2002 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 82.8% |
2003 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 87.5% |
2004 | 25 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 81.1% |
2005 | 24 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 90.5% |
2006 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 81.1% |
2007 | 21 | 27 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 75.4% |
2008 | 27 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 72.1% |
2009 | 20 | 18 | 43 | 30 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 47.6% |
2010 | 18 | 29 | 39 | 27 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 54.7% |
Notable Info (Outside the Top 10s)
Notable Info
Using the FightMatrix rating system, we will now be issuing out awards at yearly and perhaps other intervals, to fighters, shows, and fights. We will also be backfilling some past years based on the metrics we’ve used to create the current ones.
Check it out when you get a chance: FightMatrix Awards.
The biggest event of the past week was the UFC’s second annual ‘Fight for the Troops’: a charitable event to benefit the Intrepid Fallen Heroes Fund for the treatment of Armed Forces veterans who suffered traumatic brain injury in the line of duty.
The televised portion of the event was broadcast on Spike TV, and as is generally the case for UFC’s Spike show, there were no Top 10-ranked fighters on the card – so the impact on rankings was fairly minimal at a high level. However there were some fluctuations, particularly in the heavyweight & lightweight divisions.
Matt ‘Meathead’ Mitrione made short work of Tim Hague, improving his record to 4-0 and rising to #23 on the heavyweight ranking. A big, quick heavyweight with serious knockout power, Mitrione looks to have improved in every one of his four professional fights. Despite his inexperience, he already sits at #11 in the UFC’s heavyweight division, and with another couple of wins I won’t be surprised to see him fighting for the title within a year.
Mitrione’s friend and training partner Pat Barry didn’t fare quite as well: though he made it into the Top 50 at #44 with a hard-fought unanimous decision win over Joey Beltran, his struggle with a small brawler like Beltran shows very limited upside in the heavyweight division where he will often face fighters much bigger than himself, and with a much more diverse skill set. Beltran, after winning his first two bouts in the Octagon, loses two straight decisions and his UFC career will be in jeopardy with another loss. Ultimately, the light-heavyweight division seems like a better fit for both Barry and Beltran.
The loss to Mitrione drops Tim Hague’s UFC record to a miserable 1-4. Hague was already twice cut from his UFC contract after losses to Chris Tuchscherer and Joey Beltran. If the first-round TKO loss sends Hague packing again (and I suspect that it will), this will be the third time he is served his UFC walking papers – in the course of a single year!
With a first-round KO of George Roop, featherweight Mark Hominick moves up four spots to #14, and earns a shot at the champion Jose Aldo. Roop falls 10 spots to #55. Meanwhile, former WEC champion Mike Thomas Brown falls to #21 with a unanimous decision loss to Rani Yahya, Brown’s second consecutive loss and his third in the past four bouts. Yahya, previously ranked at bantamweight, returns to the featherweight rankings at #18.
Four of the eleven match-ups on the card took place in the lightweight division. Let’s play amateur matchmaker with the 155 lbs winners and losers of this event: