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The Importance of a proposed GSP/Silva match-up

Posted on February 7, 2011 by Jason

Georges St. Pierre vs. Anderson Silva would most certainly pair up the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, barring another big win by Cain Velasquez, or a surprise by Jake Shields.

Since our site only started about 3 years ago, I created a procedure which acts as a good approximation of our Top 10 division dominance list, back to the beginning of MMA history.

Only once before would our #1 have faced our #2, and that match ended by no contest (Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira II).  Let’s not hope for a repeat!  For the record, Wanderlei Silva inched ahead of these two, and took #1 on the list prior to their 3rd matchup, only to be beaten shortly after by Mark Hunt.

Furthermore, its also important (and amazing) to mention that Georges St. Pierre has never fought above the Welterweight limit, not even pre-UFC, which makes the proposed battle even more tremendous.

Stat of the Day: Career Brazilians’ success once in Zuffa

Posted on February 7, 2011 by Jason

Over the last several years, with seemingly increasing frequency, Zuffa has made an increased effort to invite Brazilian prospects straight from their homeland (or elsewhere) into the UFC (or previously, the WEC).

Our counts show 31 Brazilians who had fought previously, but never in the USA, then had their first match with either the UFC or WEC, since late 2004.

Prior to Zuffa: 361-47-4 (.876 Win %)

First Match in Zuffa: 15-16 (.484 Win %)

Future Matches in Zuffa: 54-36 (.600 Win %)

These statistics suggest that the Brazilians were “thrown to the wolves” and/or got a big shock when facing top-notch talent.  However, either by more friendly matchmaking, or simply by adjustment, they did fairly well afterwards.

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Last 5: W L L W L
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MMA Rankings Updated: 2/6/2011

Posted on February 6, 2011 by Jason
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UFC 126: How they stack up

Posted on February 4, 2011 by Jason

UFC/FightMatrix Middleweight Championship

[#1 MW] Anderson Silva vs. [*] Vitor Belfort

Notes: Silva is also #1 Division Dominance and the #1 All-Time Middleweight.  Belfort is not ranked due to inactivity, but would likely be the #3 Middleweight if he stayed active.

Light Heavyweight

[#9] Forrest Griffin vs. [#10] Rich Franklin

Notes: A virtual tie, as Griffin’s points have slipped since the last update due to inactivity.  Griffin is the #13 All-Time Light Heavyweight, Franklin is #21 (and #3 Middleweight).

Welterweight

[#16] Jake Ellenberger vs. [#89] Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Notes: A former rookie of the year winner, Ellenberger may have a tougher challenge on his hands than the above ranking suggests, as recorded Brazilian fight history is very weak.

Light Heavyweight

[#5] Ryan Bader vs. [#15] Jon Jones

Notes: Another match-up that is likely closer than the rankings suggest, thanks to Jones’ DQ loss to Mark Hamill.  He will try to completely erase the software’s effects caused by that loss.  The winner should be looking at the Top 4 for their next opponent.

Keep Reading

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Pride & WEC bout statistics

Posted on February 3, 2011 by Oleg

We’ve recently published some statistics for UFC fight outcomes through the history of the organization.  Here are similar stats for two MMA promotions that were ‘ultimately’ merged with the UFC.

Pride, 1997-2007:

Year T/KO Sub Dec U Dec S Dec Draw NC DQ Finish %
1997 1 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 66.7%
1998 6 10 3 0 0 3 0 1 85% 
1999 4 9 12 10 2 0 1 1 55.6% 
2000 16 17 19 19 0 0 1 0 64.2% 
2001 19 15 13 9 3 1 0 2 73.5% 
2002 27 25 30 20 9 1 0 0 63.4% 
2003 20 14 17 12 4 1 0 0 66.7% 
2004 33 29 28 17 10 1 1 0 69.2% 
2005 39 24 35 27 8 0 0 0 64.3% 
2006 34 34 33 27 5 1 0 0 67.3% 
2007 7 8 1 1 0 0 1 0 94.1% 

WEC, 2001 – 2010:

Year T/KO Sub Dec U Dec M Dec S Dec Draw NC DQ Finish %
2001 15 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 95% 
2002 13 10 5 3 1 1 0 0 1 82.8%
2003 18 17 5 3 0 1 1 0  0 87.5%
2004 25 17 10 5 1 4 0 0 1 81.1%
2005 24 29 6 4 0 2 0 3 1 90.5%
2006 30 28 14 10 1 2 1 1 1 81.1%
2007 21 27 16 13 1 2 0 1 0 75.4%
2008 27 16 17 12 0 4 1 0 1 72.1%
2009 20 18 43 30 1 12 0 1 0 47.6%
2010 18 29 39 27 1 9 2 0 0 54.7%
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All-Time MMA Rankings Updated: 2/2/2010

Posted on February 2, 2011 by Jason

Notable Info (Outside the Top 10s)

  • Yushin Okami moves to #12 and is banging on the Middleweight Top 10’s door.  Another good win will see him battling it out with Chael Sonnen and Robbie Lawler to see who will occupy that #10 spot at year’s end.
  • Frankie Edgar now occupies the #11 position at Lightweight.  Melendez’s recent activity has been staved off Edgar’s ascent to the main list, so he’ll stay just outside it, for now.
  • At nearly 40 years old, and with only 8 professional fights, Alexis Vila has a chance to touch the Top 10 Flyweight ranks before his career comes to a close.  He moves up to #12 with our latest update, but has a few points to make up in order to get past Jin Akimoto (#11).
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MMA Rankings Updated: 2/1/2011

Posted on February 1, 2011 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Intermediate release due to a bug fix/revision made to a secondary metric that controls how far a losing fighter falls as a result of  a loss.  This largely did not affect the top fighters, but will cause a point decrease across the board and will cause fluctuations below the Top 20.

MMA Rankings Updated: 1/30/2011

Posted on January 30, 2011 by Jason
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Debuting the FightMatrix Awards Page

Posted on January 26, 2011 by Jason

Using the FightMatrix rating system, we will now be issuing out awards at yearly and perhaps other intervals, to fighters, shows, and fights.  We will also be backfilling some past years based on the metrics we’ve used to create the current ones.

Check it out when you get a chance: FightMatrix Awards.

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The Week in Rankings: UFC Fight For The Troops 2

Posted on January 25, 2011 by Oleg

The biggest event of the past week was the UFC’s second annual ‘Fight for the Troops’: a charitable event to benefit the Intrepid Fallen Heroes Fund for the treatment of Armed Forces veterans who suffered traumatic brain injury in the line of duty.

The televised portion of the event was broadcast on Spike TV, and as is generally the case for UFC’s Spike show, there were no Top 10-ranked fighters on the card – so the impact on rankings was fairly minimal at a high level.  However there were some fluctuations, particularly in the heavyweight & lightweight divisions.

Heavyweight action

Matt ‘Meathead’ Mitrione made short work of Tim Hague, improving his record to 4-0 and rising to #23 on the heavyweight ranking.  A big, quick heavyweight with serious knockout power, Mitrione looks to have improved in every one of his four professional fights.  Despite his inexperience, he already sits at #11 in the UFC’s heavyweight division, and with another couple of wins I won’t be surprised to see him fighting for the title within a year.

Mitrione’s friend and training partner Pat Barry didn’t fare quite as well: though he made it into the Top 50 at #44 with a hard-fought unanimous decision win over Joey Beltran, his struggle with a small brawler like Beltran shows very limited upside in the heavyweight division where he will often face fighters much bigger than himself, and with a much more diverse skill set.   Beltran, after winning his first two bouts in the Octagon, loses two straight decisions and his UFC career will be in jeopardy with another loss.  Ultimately, the light-heavyweight division seems like a better fit for both Barry and Beltran.

Notable

The loss to Mitrione drops Tim Hague’s UFC record to a miserable 1-4.   Hague was already twice cut from his UFC contract after losses to Chris Tuchscherer and Joey Beltran.  If the first-round TKO loss sends Hague packing again (and I suspect that it will), this will be the third time he is served his UFC walking papers – in the course of a single year!

Hominick emerges as a contender

With a first-round KO of George Roop, featherweight Mark Hominick moves up four spots to #14, and earns a shot at the champion Jose Aldo.  Roop falls 10 spots to #55.  Meanwhile, former WEC champion Mike Thomas Brown falls to #21 with a unanimous decision loss to Rani Yahya,  Brown’s second consecutive loss and his third in the past four bouts.  Yahya, previously ranked at bantamweight, returns to the featherweight rankings at #18.

Six lightweight match-ups to make after ‘Fight For The Troops’

Four of the eleven match-ups on the card took place in the lightweight division.  Let’s play amateur matchmaker with the 155 lbs winners and losers of this event:

Keep Reading

MMA Rankings Updated: 01/23/2011

Posted on January 23, 2011 by Jason

UFC bout statistics: 1993-2010

Posted on January 17, 2011 by Oleg

From our extensive MMA bout database, some interesting statistics on UFC fight outcomes, from 1993 to 2010:

Year T/KO Sub Dec U Dec M Dec S Dec Draw NC DQ Finish %
1993 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%
1994 9 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%
1995 11 24 3 3 0 0 2 0 0 87.5%
1996 18 20 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 88.4%
1997 15 17 6 5 0 1 0 1 0 84.6%
1998 10 8 7 4 0 3 0 0 0 72.0%
1999 24 9 9 7 0 2 2 0 0 75.0%
2000 12 13 16 13 3 0 1 0 1 60.5%
2001 16 10 12 9 3 0 0 1 1 70.0%
2002 27 10 15 14 1 0 0 1 0 71.7%
2003 18 8 12 11 0 1 2 0 1 65.9%
2004 17 12 10 7  1 2 0 0 0 74.4%
2005 39 25 27 23 0 4 0 1 0 70.7%
2006 55 51 52 42 2 8 0 0 0 67.1%
2007 52 55 61 52 1 8 1 1 1 63.7%
2008 83 54 64 49 1 14 0 0 0 68.2%
2009 71 60 91 65 1 25 1 1 1 57.2%
2010 76 65 130 101 5 24 3 0 2 51.8%

MMA Rankings Updated: 1/15/2011

Posted on January 15, 2011 by Jason
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Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix: How they stack up

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Oleg

It’s been another slow week, with the Strikeforce Challengers 13 the only major event to make a small blip on the rankings radar. The bigger news of the past week was the announcement of another Strikeforce event – or rather a series of events: an eight-men single elimination heavyweight championship tournament, or Strikeforce World Grand Prix.

While Strikeforce has a number of top heavyweights on their roster, they received plenty of criticizm in the past year for not being able to put together matchups due to injuries, suspensions, contract negotiations, scheduling conflicts, and a slew of other issues. CEO Scott Coker took the criticizm in stride and promised big things to come in 2011. The announcement of the tournament lays out the planned matchups for the next year, and is a huge step towards legitimizing the Strikeforce heavyweight division and title.

The current heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem will defend his title in a rematch with Fabricio Werdum in the first round, and the title will be subsequently defended in the tournament semi-finals and finals.

Here’s how the Grand Prix participants stack up according to FightMatrix rankings:

Bracket I

Rank Fighter Record Points
3 Fabricio Werdum
Last Fight: 6/26/2010 [Strike Force]
14-4-1
594
8 Alistair Overeem
Last Fight: 12/31/2010 [K-1]
34-11-0
289
Rank Fighter Record Points
4 Fedor Emelianenko
Last Fight: 6/26/2010 [Strike Force]
31-2-0
493
11 Antonio Silva
Last Fight: 12/04/2010 [Strike Force]
15-2-0
211

Keep reading for the second bracket & alternate bouts:

Keep Reading

Biggest Qualifying Point-Based Upsets in 2010

Posted on January 11, 2011 by Jason

When considering upsets for the list, we took the winner’s rating at the first of that month and divided it by the loser’s rating at the first of that month.  Fighters coming back from inactivity, and previously undefeated winners (up-and-comers) are excluded.

Biggest Point-Based Upsets by % – (Loser with rating above #20 in assumed division /#20 overall female)

1. Jadamba Narantungalag UD(3) Akihiro Gono

2. Darren Uyenoyama TKO(2) Shuichiro Katsumura

3. Eric Schambari SD(3) Matt Horwich

4. Jimmie Rivera SD(5) Abel Cullum

5. Luis Palomino SD(3) Jorge Masvidal

6. Matt Horwich SUB(4) Thales Leites

7. Fabricio Werdum SUB(1) Fedor Emelianenko

8. Amir Sadollah UD(3) Brad Blackburn

9. Rafael Cavalcante TKO(3) Muhammed Lawal

10 Marloes Coenen SUB(3) Sarah Kaufman

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